The Washington Commanders travel to the desert for a 4:05 pm ET kickoff against the Arizona Cardinals, and I absolutely love this spot for the home team. Arizona is coming off a tough 20-13 home defeat at the hands of the Detroit Lions, and I expect them to respond after recording their lowest point total by a wide margin this season. QB Kyler Murray has looked great through 3 games, as he has 635 passing yards, 5 TDs and 1 INT to go with 161 rushing yards on just 15 carries. Arizona never got their running game going this past weekend (77 yards), which was partly because they gave up on running the ball after going down 20-7 in the first half. However, I don’t expect them to struggle to move the ball this week, as Washington is giving up 377.3 total yards per contest this season (29th in the NFL).

The Commanders picked up an electric 38-33 road win last week against the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football, but I’m not putting as much stock into that victory as I would at the start of the year due to Cincy’s 0-3 start. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels has looked great through 3 weeks, but he’ll now be playing in the first short week of his young career, and I expect the Cardinals defense to take full advantage of the extra day of preparation. Additionally, Washington is pretty banged up, as starting RG Sam Cosmi, starting DE Clelin Ferrell and RB Austin Ekeler were all DNPs in Wednesday’s practice and will likely miss Sunday’s contest. On the other side, TE Trey McBride and DL Khyiris Tonga are in jeopardy of missing Sunday’s game, but Arizona is still in a better spot from a health perspective. 

Arizona is 10-5 at home against the NFC East since 2010, and I expect them to pick up their 11th win this Sunday. This line had the Cardinals as -5.5 favorites before the Commanders’ surprise victory in Cincinnati, and while I like what I’ve seen from Daniels thus far, this is a great buy-low and sell-high spot. Expect Washington’s rookie QB to struggle on a short week while dealing with traveling to a different time zone and back the Cardinals to cover the spread as the best bet from my Commanders vs Cardinals predictions. 

Commanders vs Cardinals pick: Cardinals -3 (-115) available at the time of publishing, playable down to -130.

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