Few expected the Commanders to be a playoff team in 2024, but they have a chance to punch their ticket in Week 16. That doesn’t mean the fight is over for Dan Quinn’s squad.

Washington faces a tough road ahead, with the surging Eagles on the docket Sunday followed by a desperate Falcons team that is hoping Michael Penix Jr. can breathe new life into a talented offense. Even after surviving a late push by the Saints in Week 15, the Commanders can hardly take their foot off the gas.

As the games get more important for rookie QB Jayden Daniels, he could deliver another signature moment if he knocks off the Eagles and puts the Commanders in position to reach the playoffs.

Here’s a look at the Commanders’ updated playoff chances and what they need to do to clinch. 

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Commanders playoff picture

NFC East standings

The Commanders are still in NFC East contention, but the path is extraordinarily narrow. Washington can only win the division by winning out and hoping the Eagles lose out.

A loss to the Eagles on Sunday would eliminate the Commanders from NFC East contention.

NFC wild-card standings

The Commanders are much better positioned in the NFC wild-card race, but their place in the playoffs is far from secure. Washington holds just a one-game lead over the Seahawks and is still in danger of being caught by the Falcons because the two face off in Week 17.

A win over the Eagles would be massive for the Commanders and could allow them to clinch a playoff berth. Excluding ties, Washington can clinch with a win and losses by both the Falcons and Seahawks. 

In good news for the Commanders, a loss and a Seahawks win wouldn’t necessarily mean the two teams would pull even for the final wild-card spot. In that scenario, a Rams loss would allow Seattle to regain the NFC West lead and leave the Commanders with a one-game lead over L.A.

If Week 16 does end with the Commanders and Seahawks each sitting at 9-6 in the wild-card race, Washington would still hold the tiebreaker advantage with a better conference record.

MORE: How Commanders could get unexpected defensive boost

Commanders remaining schedule

The Commanders face a desperate Falcons team after their matchup with the Eagles, and it could be a critical game for both teams and their rookie quarterbacks. Washington closes out the season in Dallas against the Cowboys, who handed the Commanders a tough loss in their first meeting in November. 

Commanders updated playoff chances

ESPN’s Football Power Index rates the Commanders’ playoff chances at 87%, giving Washington a strong chance of earning a wild-card berth. The Commanders’ NFC East chances are rated at less than 1%.