Week 7 of the college football season may not top last week’s chaos, but the upcoming slate is still significant. One of the sport’s biggest rivalries looms large, as does a brand-new conference pairing.
Following last week’s shocking results, the Big Ten claims three of the top four spots in the AP Top 25, but that will change when No. 2 Ohio State travels west to face No. 3 Oregon, kicking off a new conference rivalry in prime time. No. 4 Penn State will also spend time on the West Coast this weekend when the Nittany Lions take on USC. The Trojans have struggled with a transition to the Big Ten and could use a big upset to turn their season around.
The second Saturday in October also means it’s Red River Rivalry time. No. 1 Texas and No. 18 Oklahoma are set for their annual encounter in Dallas. But this game will count in the SEC standings for the first time, presenting a huge opportunity for the Longhorns to create some distance in the conference or for the Sooners to shake up the standings (and polls).
Speaking of the SEC, No. 9 Ole Miss and No. 13 LSU are set to meet in Tiger Stadium in this week’s only other top-25 tilt. This is a critical contest, considering that the SEC has nine teams ranked, but the Tigers are one of only three (along with Texas and Texas A&M) without a conference loss.
Another conference to watch closely is the Big 12. Iowa State and BYU are undefeated and ranked in the top 15, but they face tough tests this week. The Cyclones head to Morgantown to take on West Virginia, while the Cougars host Arizona.
—Mark Ross
All games listed are on Saturday unless otherwise indicated. Kickoff times are Eastern. Rankings are from the AP poll. All odds are from BetMGM. For information on streaming, click here.
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It’s another Utah game, which means we’re once again wondering if quarterback Cam Rising will play. The veteran Rising has been out since getting hurt in a Week 2 win against Baylor. The Utes are favored by about a touchdown at Arizona State, though this line could move if Rising’s status becomes more clear.
Last time out, the Utes managed just 10 points against Arizona and now are coming off a bye week. Utah’s defense ranks 16th in the country in yards allowed per game (280.2) and 15th in points allowed per game (15). In order for Utah to win the Big 12, the offense has to do its part and Rising is a big part of that.
While Utah at 4-1 is not a surprise, and might even be a minor disappointment, Arizona State fans are very happy to see a 4-1 start. The Sun Devils have already surpassed the win total for each of the last two years. ASU knocked off Mississippi State and Kansas at home already this season with Cam Skattebo combining for 444 rushing yards in those two games. Skattebo is fun to watch and has 824 total yards already this season, but Utah’s defense will provide a tough test.
—Dan Santaromita
Picks against the spread
Sorry Big 12, but the Red River Rivalry between Texas and Oklahoma now belongs to the SEC, and it’s no stretch to say that this year’s encounter in the Cotton Bowl means more. The top-ranked Longhorns are heavy favorites, but the Sooners have defied the odds before, including as recently as last season.
Both teams are coming off a bye, so they should be fairly healthy and fully prepared. The big news for Texas (5-0, 1-1 SEC) is that Quinn Ewers is expected to start at quarterback despite how well Arch Manning has played in relief. The Longhorns’ luxury under center contrasts starkly with the production that Oklahoma (4-1, 1-1) has received at the position and underscores the colossal mismatch for this game, at least on paper.
Michael Hawkins Jr. has replaced Jackson Arnold as the Sooners’ No. 1 quarterback, and he’ll make history as the first true freshman to start for Oklahoma in this rivalry. Hawkins helped lead his team to a 27-21 comeback win at Auburn in his first career start but a much tougher test awaits in Dallas. Texas is No. 1 in the country against the pass and has surrendered just one touchdown compared to seven interceptions through five games. On top of that, OU’s receiving corps is dealing with several injuries and won’t be at full strength.
Oklahoma’s defense has played pretty well so far, giving up just one rushing touchdown, but has yet to face a team as potent as the Longhorns. Texas is ranked seventh nationally in points and total yards per game and this offense has yet to skip a beat despite switching quarterbacks.
Statistics aside, both teams are fully aware that anything can happen in the Red River Rivalry. The Longhorns hold a commanding lead (63-51-5) in this series, but the Sooners have won four of the past five meetings, including last season’s 34-30 upset of then-No. 3 Texas. This season has already had its share of unexpected outcomes. Will there be another in the Cotton Bowl on Saturday afternoon?
—Mark Ross
Picks against the spread
Coach James Franklin and No. 4 Penn State face a big challenge on Saturday when they travel west to play USC in a Big Ten showdown. Penn State is a nearly touchdown favorite on the road and looks to improve to 6-0 on the season.
While Penn State has climbed the national rankings and has a strong record, not every game has been pretty. The Nittany Lions narrowly escaped with wins against Bowling Green and Illinois and were not overly impressive in a win last week against a UCLA team that may be one of the worst in the Big Ten this year. Penn State has also played four consecutive home games, with the only road trip to neighboring West Virginia. Traveling across the country to play a USC team desperate for a win will be challenging.
The good news for Penn State is that star running back Nicholas Singleton is expected to return after missing Saturday’s game against UCLA. Singleton is averaging more than seven yards per carry this season.
The big X factor for USC will be protecting the football against an outstanding Penn State defense that has only allowed 18 points (total) over its past three games. Turnovers have plagued the Trojans’ offense this season, with at least three committed in each of the past three games. That is not a recipe for success, especially when facing a team as talented as Penn State.
—Adam Gretz
Picks against the spread
The Big 12 has felt like the Wild West so far this season, and all signs point to that continuing. Arizona was a preseason contender and BYU was under the radar. Now, the 3-2 Wildcats are an underdog against the 5-0 Cougars.
Arizona redshirt sophomore quarterback Noah Fifita hasn’t been as good as last year so far. He has already thrown six interceptions, the total he threw all of last season, and his completion percentage (61.5) is down more than 10 percent from a year ago. Stud wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan has once again starred with 664 receiving yards, but he had a costly fumble in last week’s loss to Texas Tech.
While Arizona still has a talented team, the Wildcats haven’t had the it factor that BYU has had so far. The Cougars were outgained in each of their last two wins, including the 38-9 victory against Kansas State.
In the weird stat category, BYU’s leading rusher is quarterback Jake Retzlaff with only 156 yards. Seven players have had more than 10 carries for BYU this season.
—Dan Santaromita
Picks against the spread
Florida–Tennessee is always a game you can circle on the calendar as one to watch, but this year it might not be competitive. The Volunteers are favored by more than two touchdowns.
If the Vols cover, a lopsided win would be therapeutic for the Tennessee fanbase after last week’s letdown loss at Arkansas. Tennessee picked up a statement win at Oklahoma the week before and its defense looked like arguably the best unit in the country. The Vols are second only to Ohio State in yards allowed per game (227). It’s the offense that hasn’t gotten going.
Nico Iamaleava passed for just 194 yards against Oklahoma, but it looked like the Vols geared down on offense knowing OU couldn’t seem to move the ball at all. However, Iamaleava was 17-for-29 for 158 yards in the 19-14 loss to Arkansas. Florida’s defense has allowed nearly 400 yards per game so this could be a classic get-right game for Iamaleava and Tennessee.
There is more hope in Gainesville after the 3-2 Gators picked up wins by multiple scores against Mississippi State and UCF the last two weeks. Tennessee won the last meeting in Knoxville, but Florida has won 17 of the previous 19 in this series.
—Dan Santaromita
Picks against the spread
A week after dismantling Michigan State, No. 3 Oregon is on the wrong side of a small spread when No. 2 Ohio State visits Eugene. It’s strange that a top-three matchup between these two isn’t in the Rose Bowl, but welcome to the new-era NCAA. Not only is this game significant for the national rankings, but it will establish the alpha dog in the Big Ten (with Penn State nipping at the winner’s heels).
The Buckeyes have a juggernaut of an offense, with a top-five rushing attack and two elite wideouts in Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka. The Ducks have been strong against the pass this year (18th in yards and seventh in TDs allowed) and have recently shored up a running defense, holding opponents to 79 yards on average during the last three games. However, Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty ran wild on Oregon earlier this season (192 yards, 3 TDs), suggesting a vulnerability to high-level runners. OSU’s Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson just carved up Iowa’s stout run defense, and if the Buckeyes can force Oregon to divert resources to stop the run, Smith and Egbuka are lethal in single coverage.
For the Ducks offense, it all comes down to tempo. Oregon likes to move fast and exploit spacing mistakes, and transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel is surgical when running at a 2.5-second or less clip. But he’s seen pressure on nearly a quarter of his dropbacks, and when he does, Gabriel’s completion percentage drops 20 percent. If OSU can dictate the pace, the Buckeyes can capitalize on an edge in talent.
—J.J. Bailey
Picks against the spread
It’s still early in conference play and we don’t know how the 12-team playoff will shake out, but this meeting between one-loss teams in Ole Miss and LSU almost feels like an elimination game. The Rebels have a slight edge in the odds on the road.
Ole Miss is two weeks removed from a loss to Kentucky and bounced back with a convincing 27-3 win at South Carolina. The Rebels still have home games against Oklahoma and Georgia on the schedule so winning out won’t be easy if they slip up here. Winning this one won’t be easy either. Ole Miss last won in Baton Rouge in 2008.
This game might feel more like a must-win for LSU, which has an even tougher schedule ahead with a trip to Texas A&M and home games against Alabama and Oklahoma still to come.
The Tigers’ offense has been rolling with four straight games of 34 or more points, all wins. Ole Miss won’t make it easy for that streak to continue, which leads to the intriguing part of this matchup. Both quarterbacks are top 10 in the country in passing yards (Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart is second at 2,100 and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier is seventh at 1,652), but the point total is only in the 60s. The Rebels are allowing the third-fewest points in the country (7.5 per game). It seems like the range of possibilities on how many points will be scored in this one is wider than most games.
—Dan Santaromita
Picks against the spread
Hold up, is Colorado actually a contender in the Big 12? The Buffaloes are 2-0 in league play and can make a statement with a win against Kansas State on Saturday, but the Buffaloes are underdogs at home.
Colorado had a solid start to last season as well, going 3-1 before finishing 4-8, so maybe this year could turn into more of the same, but the Buffaloes have shown some solid signs. Travis Hunter is second in the Heisman odds and the 48-21 win at UCF two weeks ago could be the most impressive scoreline of the Deion Sanders era to date.
That said, the Knights did outgain Colorado 461-418 and the final score was skewed by four UCF turnovers. This is the same Colorado team that went down to the last minute against North Dakota State, needed a Hail Mary and overtime to beat Baylor, which is 0-3 in the Big 12, and was uncompetitive at Nebraska.
Kansas State appeared to have righted the ship from an ugly loss at BYU with a 42-20 win against Oklahoma State two weeks ago and, like Colorado, is coming off a bye week. Importantly, Avery Johnson passed for a career-high 259 yards and three touchdowns.
These old Big 12 (and Big 8) rivals are back in the same conference again and haven’t played since 2010.
—Dan Santaromita
Picks against the spread
Picking only the biggest games is not the smartest way to bet, so each picker is adding another bet with everything from every game on the table. We are tracking the records in these picks as well as counting them in the overall picks standings.
Austin Mock: South Florida +7 vs. Memphis
Chris Vannini: Penn State/USC over 47.5
Dan Santaromita: Boise State/Hawaii over 61.5
David Ubben: Army -25.5 vs. UAB
Overall | Wild card picks | Last week | |
---|---|---|---|
Chris Vannini |
26-15 |
3-3 |
3-4 |
David Ubben |
19-22 |
3-3 |
2-5 |
Austin Mock |
18-23 |
3-3 |
4-3 |
Dan Santaromita |
18-23 |
2-4 |
4-3 |
(Photo of TreVeyon Henderson: Jason Mowry / Getty Images)
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