Week 3 of the 2024 college football season is here, bringing prime opportunities to find some value picks. From a live underdog poised to make a statement to a total that could fly under the radar, I’m breaking down the angles that matter. But first, full transparency: Week 3 isn’t the most attractive slate. By this point in the week, several games have already seen line movements that have eliminated value. For example, UCF shifted from a +1.5 underdog to a -2 favorite, and Purdue moved from +12 to +10.

However, there’s still plenty to discuss. Here are my insights, picks and best bets as we head into this pivotal college football weekend:

All lines current as of publication time, courtesy of ESPN BET.

Underdog Special: Washington State (+4) at Washington

Washington State is known for its aerial assault, ranking sixth in passing yards per game last season but struggling on the ground, finishing 132nd in rushing yards. The Cougars, led by quarterback John Mateer, continue to be a pass-dominant team this season (352 yards in Week 1). However, last week against Texas Tech we saw a new dimension — Mateer’s rushing ability — which helped balance the offense.

The Cougars racked up 301 rushing yards, with Mateer accounting for 197 of them, marking more rushing yards in a single game than any previous quarterback at Washington State had all season since at least 2004. One of those attempts included a 68-yard run, showcasing Mateer’s ability to make explosive plays. Washington, on the other hand, struggled against the run last season, ranking 77th in PFF run defense. The Huskies may be caught off guard by the dual-threat Cougars offense.

Washington has also had sluggish starts, scoring zero first-quarter points through two games. With 11 offensive starters gone from last year, the Huskies are struggling to find their rhythm under new head coach Jedd Fisch and offensive coordinator Brennan Carroll. With a mostly untested offensive and defensive line, Washington’s ability to perform against a rejuvenated Washington State team remains questionable.

Point Predictor: LSU at South Carolina under 50.5

South Carolina’s defense is off to a hot start, with 10 sacks through two games — significantly improving from last year’s 101st-ranked pass rush, which generated only 21 sacks for the entire season. The Gamecocks’ defense is spread across seven contributors, including veteran transfer Kyle Kennard, adding versatility and strength to the unit.

LSU might present a much tougher challenge. However, Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier‘s Week 1 performance showed a tendency to rush decisions, missing deeper reads and opting for quick checkdowns. South Carolina’s pass rush could exacerbate these issues, forcing Nussmeier into rushed decisions and potential turnovers.

The Gamecocks have already forced four interceptions this season, and its constant pressure could lead to more conservative play-calling from LSU and a slower-paced game.

Week 3 best bet: Purdue at Notre Dame under 45.5

I’m locking in what could be a slugfest between Purdue and Notre Dame.

Notre Dame’s offense has been underwhelming, managing just four touchdowns across 23 possessions and scoring 23 points or fewer in back-to-back games. This lack of production has them ranked 111th in red zone attempts and 99th in red zone scores. The offensive line is struggling to protect quarterback Riley Leonard, who has only completed 3-of-15 passes under pressure, while the run game remains inconsistent. In their loss to Northern Illinois Huskies, the Irish mustered just 123 rushing yards, with 34 coming from a single run by Jeremiyah Love.

On the defensive side, Purdue has been vulnerable against the pass but solid against the run, finishing 7th in the Big Ten last season. Coming off a bye, Purdue’s defense has had extra time to prepare for Notre Dame’s limited offense, which could prove to be a key advantage.

Purdue’s offense showcased a strong rushing attack in Week 1, averaging 8.0 yards per carry. If Purdue can control the clock through their ground game, this contest could easily turn into another low-scoring battle.