The 2024 college football season will end on Monday night when Ohio State and Notre Dame square off in Atlanta in the national championship. But before this season closes, let’s hop in our time machine and go back to August — before any games were played, back when we had no idea what was going to happen.
As a voter for the Associated Press top 25 poll, I put together a preseason ballot. Some preseason rankings were good calls. Others weren’t.
Here, we take a look at what I got right — and what I got way wrong.
NAILED IT
No. 3 Texas, No. 4 Oregon
Not like I was going out on a limb here, but Texas and Oregon backed up the preseason hype. Oregon, after beating Ohio State in the regular season and taking down Penn State in the Big Ten title game, was the last undefeated team in the country and the No. 1 seed entering the CFP. The Longhorns were a red-zone possession away from tying Ohio State in the CFP semifinal. This is around where both teams will finish in the final AP poll.
No. 24 Boise State
Boise State was unranked by 47 voters in the preseason poll. But the Broncos were my pick from the get-go to secure the Group of Five’s automatic CFP bid. Did I think former USC five-star QB Malachi Nelson was going to lead the charge? Sure. But let’s not nitpick.
Unranked N.C. State
N.C. State was ranked No. 24 in the preseason poll. A couple voters had the Wolfpack as high as No. 13. I just never saw it, and that played out. N.C. State went 6-7.
No. 7 Penn State
Penn State was ranked No. 8 in the preseason poll. So not going out on a limb. But here’s what I wrote about Penn State: “I believe that the heralded 2022 recruiting class, now a star-studded group of juniors, is ready to be the driving force for James Franklin’s program to reach its first CFP. … With the defense again looking like one of college football’s best, I think (Drew) Allar, Nick Singleton and the offense will be better equipped to hold up their end of the bargain this fall. I’m sold on (Andy) Kotelnicki being the guy that can unlock what he has at his disposal in Happy Valley. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong.” And hey, I was right.
CLOSE BUT NO CIGAR
No. 1 Georgia
I went back and forth between Georgia and Ohio State for the No. 1 spot. I can’t fault myself too much because the Dawgs entered the CFP as SEC champs and the No. 2 seed. And if Carson Beck didn’t get hurt, maybe it’s Georgia playing Ohio State in the title game. But alas.
No. 5 Ole Miss
I was right that Jaxson Dart and “the weapons all around him” would be dangerous. But the Rebels slipped up in a big way vs. Kentucky and Florida. If Ole Miss went 10-2 instead of 9-3, I think it would have done damage in the CFP. But the Rebels didn’t deserve a spot.
No. 16 Tennessee
No voter had Tennessee ranked higher than No. 15. So it’s not as if I was alone in undervaluing the Vols. I also expressed confidence in QB Nico Iamaleava taking over, and he played well overall. But I didn’t necessarily think Tennessee would reach the CFP.
No. 8 Notre Dame
I wrote that Notre Dame would “build on its 10-win 2023 season by bringing in Duke star Riley Leonard.” And the Fighting Irish did. But I did not expect them to play for the national title.
OFF THE MARK
No. 6 Alabama
I was confident that Kalen DeBoer’s sterling record and reputation as a head coach would make for a smooth transition from the Nick Saban era. And it looked like that was happening after the Georgia win, pushing the Tide up to No. 1 in the poll. Then they lost to Vanderbilt. Then they lost to Tennessee. Then, while still in position to make the CFP, they lost to Oklahoma in November. Then they lost to Michigan in the ReliaQuest Bowl. Embarrassing finish for the Tide.
No. 9 Missouri
I was too high on Missouri. The Tigers won 10 games and will finish in the top 20. But with QB Brady Cook and WR Luther Burden III, I thought they were CFP contenders. Instead, they got smoked by Alabama and Texas A&M, lost to South Carolina and almost lost to Vanderbilt, Boston College and Auburn. As Logan Roy once said, they weren’t “serious people.”
No. 10 Utah
I thought the veteran QB Cam Rising and the returning talent would put Utah in contention to win the Big 12. Rising missed the majority of the year with an injury, and Utah went 5-7.
WHAT WAS I THINKING?
No. 11 Michigan
I had Michigan outside the top 10. Several voters had the Wolverines as high as No. 5. So it wasn’t as bad as it could have been. But Michigan wasn’t close to a top 25 team this year. I should have listened to my gut and had the Wolverines way lower.
No. 14 Oklahoma
Oklahoma wasn’t ranked by four voters. They had the right idea. Sure, the Sooners beat Bama. But they were otherwise an abject disaster, finishing 6-7 with a bowl loss to Navy.
No. 17 Oklahoma State
Speaking of abject disasters, Oklahoma’s in-state rival was even worse. The Cowboys opened 3-0 … and then lost their remaining nine games. Ollie Gordon, the 2023 Doak Walker Award winner, failed to surpass 1,000 yards. It was just a total mismanagement by Mike Gundy.
No. 20 Arizona
I put too much faith in two players. Wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan was spectacular, and QB Noah Fifita had his moments. But the rest of the team? As good as 4-8 would indicate.
GO AHEAD AND LAUGH
No. 13 Florida State
I’ll say this: other people had Florida State higher than me. The overall poll had the 2-10 Seminoles at No. 10, and five voters had them all the way up at No. 6. So I take some solace in not being all the way in on Florida State. But still, this was the biggest miss of the year.
From playing soccer for Drake and Florida Gulf Coast before moving to the gridiron for the Division II Lake Erie Storm, Jaffer Murphy has already attended three
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