Rivalry Week kicks off the 2024 regular season finale of another historic college football campaign, and still with plenty to sort out in the new 12-team College Football Playoff, with at-large and potential automatic-bid playoff teams looking to make a statement. Let’s take a look at the latest predictions for the top games from an expert analytical football model.

Ohio State vs. Michigan. Alabama vs. Auburn. Texas vs. Texas A&M. Notre Dame vs. USC. Clemson vs. South Carolina. Saturday brings us a full day and night of hugely consequential football across the country as rivals settle things on the field and help shape the playoff picture going forward.

What do the analytical models suggest for the most important Week 14 action?

Looking ahead to this week’s matchups, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change

Michigan at Ohio State (-19.5): Beat the Wolverines and the Buckeyes will make the Big Ten Championship Game, something the index forecasts as it picks Ohio State to be 21.5 points better than Michigan on the same field, with a 92 percent chance of victory.

–

Tennessee (-10.5) at Vanderbilt: The model favors the Volunteers to beat the Commodores by 12.2 points and secure their position inside the top dozen of the College Football Playoff bracket, with a strong 80 percent chance to win outright against Vandy.

–

South Carolina at Clemson (-2.5): The Gamecocks are a trendy pick to upset here, but the index is still siding with the Tigers by a field goal, enough to cover this narrow spread and do its part in the ACC title race, but they still need Miami to lose to Syracuse, too.

–

Illinois (-8.5) at Northwestern: The Wildcats are 0-2 against AP top 25 ranked teams this year, and the model expects more of the same, as Illinois is the favorite to win by 8.3 points and finish the regular season with 9 wins.

–

Maryland at Penn State (-24.5): The index favors the Nittany Lions by a big margin at home against the Terrapins, expected to come out 23 points ahead and further cement its place in the College Football Playoff picture, and likely to host a first-round game in a few weeks.

–

Notre Dame (-6.5) at USC: The model is taking the Fighting Irish by 7.9 points over the Trojans, who have led in the fourth quarter of every game they played this season and lost all 5 of their games by a single possession. Notre Dame has a 71 percent chance to win outright.

–

Auburn at Alabama (-10.5): Alabama is a big favorite on the index, coming out ahead in 88 percent of simulations for the Iron Bowl game, and averaging out 17 points better than Auburn on the same field, more than enough to cover this big point spread and move to 9 wins, even if their playoff hopes appear to be dashed.

–

Miami (-11.5) at Syracuse: Win and the Hurricanes are in the ACC Championship Game, something the model projects will happen with 82 percent likelihood, and the computers are favoring Miami to win it by double digits, with an expected 13.3 point spread to cover this line.

–

Arizona State (-8.5) at Arizona: Things are very crowded atop the Big 12 standings, but the Sun Devils just have to win the Territorial Cup to get closer to the conference title game, something the simulations expect with 72 percent odds, as Arizona State is projected to be 8.2 points better than the Wildcats on the same field.

–

Arkansas at Missouri (-3.5): A chance for the Razorbacks to avoid falling to .500, but the index is siding with the Tigers, who have a 67 percent chance to win this game, and cover the narrow line, projected to be 6.3 points better than the Hogs and move to 9-3.

–

Purdue at Indiana (-29.5): The Hoosiers need to win this rivalry game and hope Ohio State and Penn State lose in order to get back into the Big Ten title picture, but the computer expects at least the first thing to happen with 98 percent likelihood, and IU projected to be 32.5 points better than the Boilers.

–

Washington at Oregon (-18.5): A huge line for the Ducks to cover, and the simulations don’t expect them to, projecting Oregon will be 18 points better than the Huskies and win with 89 percent probability.

–

Texas (-5.5) at Texas A&M: The most anticipated rivalry game of the season by far after more than a decade of waiting, and with plenty on the line, as the winner advances to the SEC Championship Game. The index favors Longhorns by 11 points, with a 77 percent chance to win outright.

–

Kansas State at Iowa State (-2.5): Another team in the Big 12 mix, the home side Cyclones are expected to win, coming out on top of the Wildcats in 54 percent of the simulations, but not to cover this narrow line, projected to finish 1.5 points better on the field.

–

Nevada at UNLV (-17.5): With a chance to make the Mountain West Championship Game on the line, which itself could be a ticket to the College Football Playoff, the index favors UNLV to come out 17.5 points ahead of the Wolf Pack with an 88 percent chance to win outright.

–

Houston at BYU (-13.5): That two-game losing streak hurt the Cougars in the Big 12 race, but they’re favored by the index to win the regular season finale by 17 points and cover this big point spread.

–

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks