The final week of the season before the selection committee releases its first College Football Playoff rankings is here. The chopping block is getting smaller and smaller as teams are starting to be eliminated from the Playoff race each week, though some others are making surprise cases for themselves.

On Saturday, Texas A&M rallied to take down LSU, while Notre Dame dominated Navy for its sixth win in a row since an early stumble against NIU. Those results lead into what should be an interesting Week 10 that could have a significant impact on the first Playoff rankings next Tuesday.

Let’s use my College Football Playoff projections model to see which teams improved their stock the most over the past week while also looking ahead at how Ohio State–Penn State and Pitt–SMU will affect the bracket.

Stock up

Texas A&M

Texas A&M (7-1, 5-0 SEC) is the only team in the SEC without a blemish in conference play. Who could have seen that coming after their Week 1 home loss to Notre Dame?

The Aggies are on the bubble, according to my projections, as they’re projected to make the Playoff in 34 percent of my model’s simulations. (LSU, meanwhile, fell from 28 percent to 13 percent after its loss.) That number may seem a bit low considering Texas A&M is ranked No. 10 in the AP poll, and BetMGM implies its Playoff odds to be around 50 percent.

So why is my model lower on the Aggies? It’s likely due to their remaining schedule — or the fact that they’re bouncing back and forth between quarterbacks. Though the Aggies should be favored in their next three games, two of those games (at South Carolina and at Auburn) will be single-digit spreads. And that’s before they’re slated to be an underdog to Texas in the regular-season finale. Considering the quality of their opponents and the fact that we are two-thirds of the way through the season and I’m not sure anyone knows who the best option is at quarterback between Conner Weigman and Marcel Reed, I’m not sure if I’m that low on the Aggies.

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Despite the possibility of my model underrating Texas A&M, there is no denying its stock is rising. Just one month ago, my projection had the Aggies slated to make the Playoff just 8 percent of the time. Last week, that number was 25 percent. Now, they’re up another 9 percentage points and in the driver’s seat for an SEC title game berth.

My model has Texas A&M as a top-10 team, but it’s more likely to go 9-3 than 11-1. I don’t think 9-3 gets the Aggies into the Playoff, which means they still have work to do to secure an at-large bid if they miss out on the SEC title game.

Notre Dame

Way back in Week 1, Notre Dame took down Texas A&M in College Station in what is turning out to be one of the best wins of the season. The Fighting Irish overwhelmed Navy on Saturday on their way to a 7-1 record and now have the sixth-best odds to make the College Football Playoff at 85 percent. I didn’t see this coming after their inexcusable home loss to Northern Illinois, as their Playoff odds were 32 percent then.

NIU is 4-4 overall and 1-3 in MAC play, and my model might be overrating Notre Dame a bit because I’m not sure it knows how to handle a loss of that magnitude. It’s kind of unknown how the committee will handle it. My model takes into account the strength of resume, so Notre Dame is getting dinged quite a bit for that loss. Is it enough to knock the Irish out? I’m not sure yet.

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For comparison, BetMGM implies Notre Dame to make the Playoff about 64 percent of the time. It’s entirely possible that the committee will rank Notre Dame near the bottom of any comparable team, but its win over Texas A&M is quite the resume-booster. No matter how you spin it, the Irish are in a good spot compared to what you thought of them after the loss to NIU.

My model now gives them a 34 percent chance of winning out against Florida State, Virginia, Army and USC,. Do that, and Notre Dame is a lock. It gives the Irish a 48 percent chance of finishing 10-2, which should be good enough for a Playoff berth but would bring that NIU loss debate into play.

How Week 10 will impact the Playoff

Week 10 has two games between teams ranked in the AP poll: No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State in a matchup of expected contenders and No. 18 Pitt at No. 20 SMU in a matchup of ACC dark horses. And that’s not to overlook four undefeated or one-loss contenders going on the road this week: No. 1 Oregon at Michigan, No. 10 Texas A&M at South Carolina, No. 13 Indiana at Michigan State and No. 17 Kansas State at Houston.

Let’s look at what can happen in the two ranked matchups and how each team’s Playoff odds will be affected. First, the top-five showdown. Ohio State travels to Happy Valley to take on undefeated Penn State, which is not only huge in the Big Ten title race, but also big for Ohio State to have some breathing room in the Playoff race, considering it already has a loss and has Indiana and Michigan remaining on the schedule. My model has Ohio State winning 59 percent of the time against Penn State.

CFP odds if Ohio State wins …

Ohio State: 98 percent
Penn State: 84 percent

If Penn State wins …

Ohio State: 83 percent
Penn State: 97 percent

Penn State’s odds are affected by the uncertainty regarding the injury quarterback Drew Allar suffered against Wisconsin on Saturday. James Franklin said Allar is likely to be a game-time decision against Ohio State.

The second ranked matchup is a battle of teams that are unbeaten in ACC play and looking to make some noise in the Playoff race. SMU, which has lost only to BYU, travels to Pitt in what should be another close game but is one that is also dealing with quarterback uncertainty. Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein’s status is unknown for the game after a late injury against Syracuse. My model, when factoring in that uncertainty, gives SMU a 69 percent chance of beating Pitt.

CFP odds if Pitt wins …

Pitt: 24 percent
SMU: 12 percent

If SMU wins …

Pitt: 5 percent
SMU: 35 percent

Pitt has some tricky games left in the regular season, including Clemson and at Louisville, while SMU avoids Clemson and Miami in the regular season.

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My model has Washington State making the Playoff less than 1 percent of the time despite being 7-1 and ranked No. 22 in the AP poll. That may seem low, but the road for Washington State to get into the Playoff is a long one.

First, the Cougars cannot secure an automatic bid as a conference champion because there is no Pac-12 championship this year with just Washington State and Oregon State in the conference. That means they’re going to be battling the second- and third- and fourth-best teams from the SEC and Big Ten for a spot. Second, Washington State has a lackluster schedule, with a loss to Playoff contender Boise State, and has no possible quality wins remaining on the schedule (Utah State, New Mexico, Oregon State, Wyoming), which limits its ability to rise in the rankings. To get into the at-large conversation, Washington State needs a level of chaos that’s probably not possible.

(Photo of Jeremiyah Love: Jack Gorman / Getty Images)