College Football Playoff Rankings prediction: Notre Dame joins top five, Boise State into top 10 amid shakeup

USATSI

Can we have a 12-team College Football Playoff without Alabama? Would that be a violation of federal law?

We may find out Tuesday night in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings release after the Crimson Tide took it on the chin at Oklahoma. That is their second loss of the season to a team that should not be beating Alabama. I didn’t think any 9-3 teams would be able to qualify for the CFP, and maybe that’s still the case. But would it shock you if Alabama was the exception?

Ole Miss also picked up its third loss of the season, leaving just Texas, Georgia and Tennessee with fewer than three losses. If there are only three SEC teams in the playoff, heads will roll. Figuratively, of course, but maybe there will be only three deserving teams. Every league has a down year once in a while.

The concept of a set number of teams from any given conference is fictional, though. There are no limits or minimums for the number of teams from any given league — yet. The next iteration of this playoff structure will likely ensure minimums from the SEC and Big Ten, but that’s a bridge we can cross when we come to it.

Before we get going with this week’s rankings prediction, here are some of the things the College Football Playoff Selection Committee considers besides a team’s record:

Conference championships – This does not come into play until the final weekend, when those are determined.
Head-to-head
Games against common opponents
Results against ranked opponents.

References to “rankings” refer to last week’s CFP Rankings. It is the only one the committee uses when looking at performance against ranked teams, which is not necessarily a huge factor. If a team has enough of those games, it will be reflected in the strength of schedule.

Note: This projection is based only on results to this point. It does not reflect the final forecast for the playoff. The complete bowl playoff and bowl projections through the end of the season can be found here.