The worst piece of gambling advice on The Athletic’s website is back for the quarterfinal round of the College Football Playoff.

Naturally, there were no upsets in the first round of the CFP. It was all chalk. Worst yet, my one upset pick — I’m contractually obligated to make one each week (not really) — was the ugliest beatdown of an underdog of them all.

My record at picking straight-up winners (93-46) still looks good. But we don’t just pick winners here. We get weird.

As usual, we’ll get to my hits and misses below. But first, here are this week’s picks with the stat stuffers included in the capsules.

College Football Playoff

No. 6 Penn State (-11) vs. No. 3 Boise State

Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty had only one game this season in which he averaged fewer than 4.8 yards per carry. That was against Mountain West runner-up UNLV in the regular season. Jeanty had 33 carries for 128 yards and a touchdown in the game, and the Broncos escaped with a 29-24 victory in Las Vegas.

The only other defenses to hold Jeanty under 5.0 yards a carry this season were San Diego State (31 carries, 149 yards) and San Jose State (32 carries, 159 yards). San Jose State and UNLV were the only teams Boise State faced this season that currently rank in the top 50 in fewest yards allowed per carry (Oregon is 55th).

𝗨𝗡𝗔𝗡𝗜𝗠𝗢𝗨𝗦 𝗔𝗟𝗟-𝗔𝗠𝗘𝗥𝗜𝗖𝗔𝗡

The first in Boise State history 👏#BleedBlue | #BuiltDifferent pic.twitter.com/KCzw3chTMY

— Boise State Football (@BroncoSportsFB) December 19, 2024

Why does this all matter? Penn State’s run defense is 11th nationally in yards per carry allowed (3.1) overall and 24th in yards per carry allowed (3.6) against FBS winning teams. The problem for the Nittany Lions: In the four games an opponent averaged better than 4.0 yards a carry against them, they lost twice (Oregon, Ohio State) and the two wins (USC, Bowling Green) were nail-biters.

Prediction: That’s why I expect this to be one of the most exciting Playoff games of the year. Jeanty will get his (170-plus yards, two TDs) to lead all Playoff rushers this week. But in the end, All-American Abdul Carter will wrestle Jeanty down short of the goal line on fourth down in the fourth quarter to preserve a 7-point Penn State victory.

No. 5 Texas (-12.5) vs. No. 4 Arizona State

Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt got the juices flowing for this year’s Peach Bowl when he said recently he was eager to prove why he’s the better quarterback in this matchup. Statistically, Leavitt’s not wrong. He ranks ninth nationally in passing efficiency. Texas’ Quinn Ewers is 29th.

But when you look at their numbers against FBS-winning teams, it’s a lot closer. Leavitt ranks 11th and Ewers ranks 12th. The difference is Leavitt played five teams with winning records and Ewers played 10.

Texas ranks No. 1 in both scoring defense (15.3 points per game) and yards per play allowed (4.4) against winning opponents this season. The only top-25 defense in both points allowed and yards per play allowed that Arizona State faced this season was BYU, a game the Sun Devils won 28-23 in large part to 147 yards and three touchdown runs from Cam Skattebo.

Texas gave up a season-high 336 passing yards and three touchdowns in its first-round Playoff win over Clemson, but the Sun Devils are without leading receiver Jordyn Tyson (75 catches, 1,101 yards, 10 TDs) in this game. That’s a problem.

Prediction: Ewers won’t have to prove he’s the better quarterback in this game. His defense will prove it for him, picking Leavitt off twice and holding Skattebo under 100 rushing yards. Quintrevion Wisner, meanwhile, will run for two touchdowns and surpass 100 yards for the fourth time in his last five games in Texas’ two-touchdown victory over the Big 12 champions.

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1.5)

All eyes in the Sugar Bowl are on new Bulldogs starting quarterback Gunner Stockton. He has played only 135 snaps off the bench in his three years in Athens but led Georgia to its come-from-behind win over Texas in the SEC Championship Game.

Now, another elite defense awaits. Notre Dame ranks third nationally in points allowed per game (13.8) and fifth in yards allowed per play (4.5) and went 8-1 this season against teams with winning records. That’s daunting.

Yet nobody will benefit more from its first-round bye than Georgia. The layoff allowed Stockton three weeks to run the first-team offense in practice and Kirby Smart to look for ways to stop Jeremiyah Love and Riley Leonard.

Prediction: Remember Cardale Jones? Stockton has a chance to win three games just like the former Ohio State QB did in 2014 to end a season and win a national title. He’ll lead all Playoff quarterbacks in passing yards this week (300-plus yards, three TDs) and guide Georgia to a 4-point win.

Upset alert: No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

There’s no denying this year’s Rose Bowl might be one of the best rematches we’ll ever see — especially if the Buckeyes keep throwing the ball to Jeremiah Smith.

The fabulous freshman had his fourth 100-yard receiving game of the season in the first-round blowout of Tennessee, finishing with six catches for 103 yards and two touchdowns on seven targets. The first time Ohio State played Oregon, Smith was targeted a season-high 13 times and finished with nine catches for 100 yards and a score — making him one of only two receivers (joining Michigan’s Colston Loveland) to have a 100-yard receiving day against Oregon’s defense this season.

The Ducks haven’t exactly been dominant on that side of the ball against FBS teams they faced with winning records, ranking 32nd in points allowed (25.6) and 53rd in yards per play allowed (5.7). Ohio State, meanwhile, ranks third in points allowed (16.0) and second in yards per play allowed (4.4) against teams with winning records.

Prediction: That’s why I’m sticking with my preseason pick of taking the Buckeyes to win the postseason rematch. Smith (eight catches, 150-plus yards, two TDs) will make the big plays in the fourth quarter to lead all receivers in yardage this round, setting himself up to be the Heisman favorite going into 2025. And, yes, picking an undefeated team to lose does count as an upset regardless of what Las Vegas says.

First-round report card

Time to review my mistakes (and one hit) in order.

• I said Notre Dame (favored by 7.5) would outrush Indiana by 150 yards, control the clock and win the game by at least two touchdowns. The Irish outgained the Hoosiers by 130 yards, controlled the clock (35:43 to 24:17) and won by 10 points. So, I only hit one of three.

• I predicted Ohio State would force Tennessee to rely on tailback Dylan Sampson too much, and Will Howard’s late 12-yard touchdown pass to Emeka Egbuka would lift the Buckeyes to the 6-point win (the spread was 7.5). A banged up Sampson had only two carries for 6 yards, Howard threw for 311 yards and two scores (both to Smith) and the Buckeyes crushed the Vols 42-17.

• I said Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers would throw for 280 yards and two touchdowns and the Longhorns (favored by 12) would beat Clemson by 10 points to advance to the Peach Bowl. Ewers threw for 202 yards and a touchdown, the Longhorns ran for 292 yards and four scores and won by 14 points.

• I predicted a late SMU touchdown drive capped off by a Kevin Jennings pass to Brashard Smith would lift the Mustangs to the road win and continue the misery in big games for James Franklin. That happened in an alternative universe. Just not this one. Jennings had a miserable day (three INTs, two pick sixes), and Penn State crushed SMU 38-10.

(Photo: Dale Zanine / Imagn Images)