How QBs stack up | Players to watch | Keys to the game | Prediction

The national championship game is nearly here.

Ohio State is going for its first national title since the end of the 2014 season. The Buckeyes beat Alabama and Oregon with third-string QB Cardale Jones to win the first four-team College Football Playoff. A win on Monday night would make Ohio State the first 12-team CFP champion.

Notre Dame’s title drought stretches back a bit further than that. The Fighting Irish’s last national title came in 1988 when the team capped a 12-0 season with a Fiesta Bowl victory over West Virginia.

Here’s what you need to know ahead of Monday night’s game.

Date: Jan. 20 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TV: ESPN | Line: Ohio State -8.5 | Total: 46.5

How these teams got here

Both Ohio State and Notre Dame were outside the top four of the final College Football Playoff rankings and were big beneficiaries of the format’s expansion to 12 teams. The Buckeyes lost to Oregon and Michigan in the regular season and the latter loss was inexplicable. Ohio State had its worst game of the season against the Wolverines, and Michigan was able to grab a 13-10 win.

That loss cost Ohio State a chance at the Big Ten title game and a first-round bye in the playoff. That ultimately didn’t matter. The Michigan loss could go down in Ohio State lore as lighting a fire under this team. The Buckeyes blitzed Tennessee in the first round of the playoff and then got their revenge on Oregon in a game that could have been called via mercy rule midway through the second quarter. Ohio State had a 31-0 lead over the Ducks in the Rose Bowl on the way to a 41-21 win.

Ohio State’s win over Texas in the Cotton Bowl was a bit closer, but Jack Sawyer put an exclamation point on the 28-14 victory with his 83-yard fumble return for a touchdown with less than three minutes to go.

If Notre Dame wins the title, the Fighting Irish’s Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois could go down in history as the worst loss ever suffered by a national champion. The Huskies went to South Bend in Week 2 and got a 16-14 win over Notre Dame as the Irish’s offense was out of sorts. The loss to NIU came just a week after Notre Dame opened the season with a win over Texas A&M.

Since then, however, Notre Dame has been fantastic. The Irish have seemingly improved every week and have the nation’s longest current win streak heading into the title game. Notre Dame’s 13 straight wins included victories over Louisville, Navy and Army in the regular season before taking down Indiana, Georgia and Penn State in the playoff. The Irish came back from a 10-3 halftime deficit to beat the Nittany Lions 27-24 on a 41-yard field goal by Mitch Jeter with seven seconds to go.

How the QBs stack up

Both signal callers are playing some of their best football of the season. And we’re guaranteed to have the first CFP champion with a first-year transfer quarterback.

Former Kansas State QB Will Howard has thrown for at least 289 yards in all three playoff games for Ohio State so far and has six passing TDs with just two interceptions. Howard has also completed over 70% of his passes in the playoff and is just below 73% for the season. Howard was 24-of-33 for 289 yards and a TD and an interception against Texas. He also had a key fourth-down run in the fourth quarter that could have been a touchdown if he didn’t trip on his way to the end zone.

Ex-Duke QB Riley Leonard continues to be the player Duke turns to when it needs key yards on the ground. Leonard’s passing stats aren’t the most impressive. He’s thrown for just 514 yards across the three playoff games so far and has three passing TDs with three interceptions. But he’s been vital as a rusher. Leonard had 14 carries for 80 yards against Georgia, and though he only rushed for 35 yards against Penn State, his third-quarter touchdown tied the game at 10-10. Leonard has rushed 167 times for 866 yards and 16 TDs this season. That ranks sixth among QBs this season.

Players to watch

Ohio State DE J.T. Tuimoloau: The junior edge rusher suffered an ankle injury during the Cotton Bowl when he got rolled up on. Tuimoloau was able to return to the game with his left ankle taped up, however. If he’s able to have the same burst he typically does on Monday night, that’s big news for the Buckeyes. Tuimoloau and Sawyer form one of the best defensive end tandems in college football and have combined for 20.5 sacks this season.

Notre Dame CBs Christian Gray and Leonard Moore: The Irish have five defensive backs who have played over 500 snaps this season. As Xavier Watts, Adon Shuler and Jordan Clark are listed as safeties, Gray and Moore are the team’s top two corners. Gray came up with a massive interception of Penn State QB Drew Allar in the Orange Bowl to set up Jeter’s game-winning kick.

The coverage from Notre Dame’s secondary was a big reason why Penn State’s average group of receivers was held without a catch in the Orange Bowl. But Ohio State’s receivers are a far, far tougher test. Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka may be the best duo the team has faced all season. And with Notre Dame’s propensity to run man coverage, Gray and Moore will be drawing OSU’s tandem a lot on Monday night.

Ohio State CB Denzel Burke: It hasn’t been the best season for Burke, who made the decision to come back for the 2024 season after he had an interception and nine passes defensed in 11 games in 2023. But he is still a key part of Ohio State’s defense and he missed the second half of the Cotton Bowl with what the team said was an upper-body injury.

“He’ll be available for the next game,” Ohio State coach Ryan Day said on Jan. 12. “He’s dealing with an upper extremity issue that we felt like at the time was the right thing to do, to hold him. Obviously we listen to the doctors and we get the feedback from Denzel, and we felt like Jermaine [Matthews Jr.] was playing well at the time, so that was the decision that was made.

“But Denzel will be ready to play this game.”

Notre Dame WR Beaux Collins: The Clemson transfer leads the Irish’s wide receivers with 37 catches and has scored three touchdowns. However, he’s been pretty quiet in the College Football Playoff when he’s been on the field. Collins scored a TD against Georgia, but that was his only catch of the game. Against Indiana, he had just two grabs for 18 yards.

Collins was held without a catch against Penn State and missed a lot of the game with a calf strain. Jaden Greathouse stepped up in Collins’ absence against the Nittany Lions with the first 100-yard game of his career. But Collins’ presence on the field will be a big boost to Notre Dame, especially if the Irish can’t run the ball at will against the Ohio State defense. Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said Jan. 12 that Collins would be able to play as long as he progresses in his recovery throughout the week.

Ohio State WR Carnell Tate: With Texas locking down Smith for one catch and three yards, Tate became Howard’s favorite target during the Cotton Bowl. He had a season-high seven catches for 87 yards and primarily was able to get open in the intermediate area of the field.

Will Notre Dame follow a similar strategy of minimizing the damage from Egbuka and Smith at the expense of Tate having a bigger game? Tate had just one catch in each of Ohio State’s first two playoff games after he had 20 grabs over the final four games of the regular season. Overall, Tate has 50 catches for 698 yards and four scores this season.

“The beauty of what we have is we have more than one weapon,” Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelly said. “So I think the quarterback has to make really good decisions on what they’re trying to take away and then adjust accordingly. And I think Will did a good job of that [vs. Texas].”

Notre Dame OL Charles Jagusah: The redshirt freshman looks set to play a key role on the Irish’s offensive line thanks to Anthonie Knapp’s injury. Knapp, the team’s starting right tackle, was hurt in the Orange Bowl and is set to miss Monday night’s game. Guard Rocco Spindler was also injured in the game, but he’s likely to play.

Jagusah filled in for Spindler during the Orange Bowl and could kick out to tackle to replace Knapp. And when he plays on Monday, it’ll be just his third game of the season. Jagusah was in line to play a big role on Notre Dame’s offensive line in 2024 after starting the Sun Bowl as a true freshman in 2023, but he suffered a right pectoral injury in August and missed the entirety of the regular season.

“In the past few weeks or maybe the last month, he’s just been practicing and preparing,” Freeman said. “If he did get an opportunity, he didn’t know if he would or not, and he went out there and did an unbelievable job, did a great job just like we though he would.”

Keys to the game

• By now it’s no secret that Notre Dame will run, run and run some more. In the Orange Bowl, the Irish ran a season-high 73 plays and had 384 yards even though the team averaged fewer than three yards a carry. Even if Notre Dame isn’t incredibly effective running the ball, we expect the Irish to stay committed to the run game as long as possible. And be deliberate in the process. Notre Dame may be best served to hold the ball as much as possible to keep it out of Ohio State’s hands. Time of possession can be incredibly overrated, but if Notre Dame has the ball for 35 minutes or more, it’s hard to see an Ohio State blowout.

• Which quarterback will avoid the big mistake? Yes, we said earlier that both QBs are playing some of their best football of the season. But Leonard has thrown an interception in every CFP game so far and Howard got picked off to start the second half in the Cotton Bowl. This could be the game for either team where a turnover leads to a game-shifting touchdown.

• Ohio State’s run game is probably going to be the barometer for how the game goes. It’s no coincidence that three of the most sluggish performances of the year for Ohio State have come when the team rushes for fewer than 100 yards. OSU had 31 carries for 64 yards in a 21-17 win over Nebraska and rushed 26 times for 77 yards in the 13-10 loss to Michigan. Quinshon Judkins scored two touchdowns against the Longhorns, but the Buckeyes rushed 24 times for 81 yards against Texas after rushing for over 300 yards combined in the first two games of the postseason.

Prediction

Full disclosure: I had Ohio State as my preseason pick to win the national title before chickening out at the start of the playoff and picking Oregon to beat Notre Dame in this game. I simply didn’t trust the Buckeyes after the Michigan loss.

Given the way the playoff has gone so far for Ohio State, I clearly should not have lost faith. Ohio State has played like the most talented team in the country through its first three postseason games and I see no reason why that won’t continue. A Notre Dame win would not surprise me; the Irish have the ability to lock down Ohio State’s wide receivers like Texas did and could grind out a win.

But I’ve got to go with Ohio State here. I don’t think it’ll be a blowout. But Ohio State pulls away in the fourth quarter for a 10-point win and a cover.

Pick: Ohio State 27, Notre Dame 17