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Happy College Football Playoff eve! The holiday spirit is just beginning.

CFP Preview

First-round keys, predictions

The first 12-team College Football Playoff kicks off tomorrow in South Bend. The “Until Saturday” podcast previewed it all on today’s episode.

Here are keys, picks and forecasts for the four first-round games (including our staff predictions for the Playoff). All times are ET.

No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame (8 p.m., Friday, ABC)

• Key for IU: Protect Kurtis Rourke. The most glaring issue in Indiana’s loss to Ohio State was how the Hoosiers protected their QB. Rourke was sacked five times and only completed eight of his 18 pass attempts. If Indiana wants any chance, it starts with protecting Rourke.
• Key for Notre Dame: Get ahead and stay there. Notre Dame has been bad on third-and-long (converting third-and-7 or more 10 of 63 times this season). The Irish need to stay ahead of the chains.
• Forecast: A snow game? Maybe? ⛄Light snow throughout the day with a high of 34 degrees and a low of 22 degrees.
• The Athletic staff pick: Notre Dame 90 percent, Indiana 10 percent
• Until Saturday reader pick:

No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State (noon, Saturday, TNT)

• Key for SMU: Get QB Kevin Jennings going. SMU’s offense works best when it works fast. Jennings has passed for multiple TDs in the Mustangs’ last five games, and he is a threat when he can extend plays with his legs.
• Key for Penn State: Avoid turnovers (and force some). The Mustangs have 21 takeaways this season, good for 26th-best in the country. Two Drew Allar interceptions put the dagger in the Big Ten championship loss to Oregon … that can’t happen again.
• Forecast: A chance of snow on Friday could carry over to Saturday, with a high of 27 degrees and a low of 10.
• The Athletic staff pick: Penn State 73.3 percent, SMU 26.7 percent
• Until Saturday reader pick:

No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas (4 p.m., Saturday, TNT)

• Clemson key: I pondered this for a while and couldn’t come up with just one thing that could realistically go well enough for Clemson to win this game. Maybe it’s betting on Texas having a bad day and leaning into late December magic that has worked for the Tigers previously (after all, that’s why one Athletic staffer picked Clemson to go all the way).
• Texas key: Quinn Ewers. As Texpert Sam Khan Jr. wrote today, the Longhorns will go as far as Ewers takes them. The Texas QB hasn’t been bad, but it’s fair to say he has performed below expectations. In Texas’ two losses (both to Georgia), Ewers passed for season-low completion percentages and was sacked five or more times.
• Forecast: Sunny skies with a high of 64 degrees and a low of 41. Winds are light and variable.
• The Athletic staff pick: Texas 90 percent, Clemson 10 percent
• Until Saturday reader pick:

 No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State (8 p.m., Saturday, ABC)

• • Tennessee key: Find a way around Ohio State’s defense. The Buckeyes present the toughest defensive challenge Tennessee has seen. The Vols need to avoid turnovers and create opportunities in the passing game.
  • Ohio State key: Be aggressive, early. Tennessee has struggled with slow starts. The Buckeyes should try to throw QB Nico Iamaleava off early and build up their lead, putting the pressure on Tennessee.
  • Forecast: A mostly sunny day will lead into a chilly evening, with temperatures reaching as low as 13 degrees.
  • The Athletic staff pick: Ohio State 63.3 percent, Tennessee 36.7 percent
  • Until Saturday reader pick:

Mandel’s Mailbag

First-round upset watch

Which first-round games are the most likely to produce upsets? Do you think we’ll get any? — Greg S., Conn.

It would not be in keeping with the 2024 season for all four games to go chalk. I fully expect there to be upsets in the early rounds. But it’s tough to pinpoint which one(s).

My upset pick is SMU winning at Penn State. Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings is a baller who can handle that road environment, and though the Nittany Lions’ rushing attack exploded against Oregon, SMU has the nation’s third-ranked run defense. I could be dead wrong, of course. Clemson’s Cade Klubnik threw four touchdowns against the Mustangs in the ACC Championship Game, so the window is there for Drew Allar. But between those two QBs, I’d rather ride with Jennings.

Read the full mailbag here.

More Postseason Football

FCS Semifinals

f you’re channel surfing for playoff games on Saturday afternoon, you’ll find that the two CFP games (SMU-Penn State, Clemson-Texas) are on TNT. That’s because the FCS playoff semifinals are taking over ABC with No. 3 South Dakota State vs. No. 2 North Dakota State at noon and No. 4 South Dakota vs. No. 1 Montana State at 3:30 p.m.

SDSU vs. NDSU should be a heated rematch. When the archrivals and dueling dynasties met in October, North Dakota State scored the game-winning touchdown with less than two minutes to play. In Montana State-South Dakota, the top-seeded Bobcats sport the top-scoring offense in the FCS while South Dakota has had to rely on some late game rallies to come out on top this season.

The winners will meet in the FCS championship on Jan. 6, 2025.

Quick Snaps

You’ve submitted your picks to win, but which teams should you be rooting against? Look no further than Joe Rexrode’s Hater’s Guide.

Top transfer QB John Mateer — formerly of Washington State — committed to Oklahoma yesterday.

How much will it cost to travel to Penn State for a first-round game? SMU fans, sorry you’ve had to open your wallets.

How did each CFP team get its nickname? Matt Baker dives into the fun origin stories today, where I finally learned what exactly a Nittany Lion is.

You can buy tickets to every college football game here.

For streaming info on Fubo, click here.

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(Photo of Marcus Freeman: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)