This is when the College Football Playoff gets serious. The quarterfinals feature some of the most powerful brand names in the sport — well, mostly. 

Georgia and Ohio State have accounted for three of the previous 10 national champions to emerge from the College Football Playoff. Oregon played in the first CFP title game and have won three conference titles in the last six years in two leagues. 

Notre Dame, with its eight national championships in tow, is once again in the playoff spotlight after having made two semifinal appearances during the four-team era. 

That’s a subtle warning for Boise State and Arizona State, newcomers to this sort of big time. In case you haven’t noticed, chalk has ruled so far. All four first-round favorites were victorious at their home stadiums. Will form hold in the quarterfinals as the games move to traditional New Year’s Six bowl sites?

Let’s have a look as we dive into some of the biggest storylines around the CFP quarterfinals and make some game predictions as we move closer toward crowning a national champion. 

College Football Playoff quarterfinals storylines

Big brands, big favorites: Both Texas (14.5 points) and Penn State (10.5) are double-digit favorites in the Peach and Fiesta Bowls, respectively. In the 11-year history of the CFP, all nine teams favored by double digits have won. Seven of those winners have covered. If the line stays at double digits, Penn State would be favored by the most points in a bowl game in program history. 

Dawgs dominance: Georgia comes into the quarterfinals having won its last two bowl/playoff games by a combined 118 points. The 60-point win in last year’s Orange Bowl vs. Florida State and 58-point win vs. TCU in the 2023 CFP National Championship Game are the two largest margins of victory in postseason history. The Dawgs have won seven straight postseason games going back to 2018, tied for the longest active FBS streak. Notre Dame will have a say in that streak remaining alive. 

Second rematch in CFP history on deck: In 2022, Georgia beat Alabama for the national championship after the Crimson Tide beat the Dawgs in the SEC Championship Game. This season, Texas and Georgia could meet for the third time if both make the CFP National Championship. But in this round, it’s time for Ohio State vs. Oregon 2 in the Rose Bowl after the Ducks famously nipped the Buckeyes by a point in the first meeting on Oct. 12.

This makes total sense: The last two Big 12 champions (Texas-Arizona State) will meet in Atlanta (Peach Bowl) for a chance to play in the same stadium (Cotton Bowl) where they won those Big 12 titles. 

Defense should win championships: Five of the top 10 defenses remain in the playoff — No. 1 Ohio State, No. 3 Texas, No. 4 Penn State, No. 8 Notre Dame, No. 9 Oregon. 

College Football Playoff quarterfinals predictions

Fiesta Bowl — (6) Penn State vs. (3) Boise State: If Boise is going to pull the upset in what qualifies as the school’s biggest game ever, keep an eye on quarterback Maddux Madsen. If Boise becomes Cinderella, it will need a big game from star running back Ashton Jeanty, of course, but Madsen has been the great equalizer against teams that have sold out against the run. 

On a team where Jeanty has averages 192 yards on the ground per game, Madsen is averaging more than 29 passes per game. He is the only player in the country to throw for at least 20 touchdowns and commit less than five turnovers. So, Madsen is a difference maker, too. Jeanty’s pursuit of Barry Sanders‘ rushing record is a sidebar. Penn State very well could surrender the 132 yards Jeanty needs for the mark and still blow out the Broncos. Watch Boise State center Mason Randolph, as well. In his two games back from an injury, Jeanty has run for 435 yards. 

Penn State’s defense is peaking as it leads the Big Ten with 102 tackles for loss (7th nationally). The defensive line trio of Abdul Carter, Zane Durant and Dani Dennis-Sutton have accounted for 50 of those TFLs (almost 3.6 per game). Penn State hasn’t given up in any game those 192 yards that Jeanty alone averages on the ground. Something will have to give. Pick: Penn State 31, Boise State 17

Peach Bowl — (5) Texas vs. (4) Arizona State: Texas is favored to win this game by two touchdowns, and it probably will. The Longhorns are simply bigger, faster and stronger than the Sun Devils. I want to give Arizona State a chance, but missing star wide receiver Jordyn Tyson — out for the season with a collarbone injury — is a major blow. Sure, the Sun Devils won without him in the Big 12 Championship Game, but Iowa State isn’t Texas, and ASU’s second-leading receiver is running back Cam Scattebo, who averages three catches a game. That’s not to dismiss Scattebo, who is the first player since 2016 (eighth since 1973) to have 1,500 yards rushing and 500 yards receiving. 

The game comes down to ASU quarterback Sam Leavitt — second-most touchdown passes in the country since Week 6 — vs. the Texas defense. The ‘Horns are tied for the national lead with 29 takeaways. They are first in yards per attempt allowed, second in points per game allowed and third in yards per game allowed. Leavitt and Scattebo will both need big days, but Texas will have a bigger day. Pick: Texas 38, Arizona State 21

Rose Bowl — (8) Ohio State vs. (1) Oregon: This is the most fascinating of the quarterfinal matchups. A traditional Rose Bowl — when ignoring realignment — between teams who were separated by one point in that first meeting are now separated by 2.5 points (favoring the Buckeyes). Even the quarterbacks, Will Howard and Dillon Gabriel, have completed the same rate of passes (73.2%). 

Oregon has a chance to become only the second 16-0 team since Yale in 1894. Ohio State has a chance to further separate itself from the psychological/physical meltdown that was Michigan a month ago. Against Tennessee, it flushed the bad juju with one of the best Buckeyes performances this season. Storylines gives a slight lean to Ohio State because the Buckeyes are at the top of their game, and having played a game in the first round will serve them well. They are playing like they have the best receiver room in the country. After Boise’s Ashton Jeanty, freshman Jeremiah Smith might be the next best player left in the playoff. 

You shouldn’t have to be told the defense is the best (statistically) in the country. The nine passes broken up against Tennessee were the most for Ohio State in three years. Since the Penn State game on Nov. 2, the defense has given up 3.5 yards per play and lead the country in that category (4.06). The Ducks have some of the best playmakers in the country on their own, though. Gabriel finished third in the Heisman voting playing for his third team in six years. Receiver Tez Johnson has gone for 2,000 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns combined the last two seasons. Watch defensive end Jordan Burch, who suffered a meniscus tear two days before the Ohio State game. He is back and is one of the Ducks’ best defenders. “God doesn’t make a lot of people that look like Jordan Burch,” coach Dan Lanning said.

The last time Ohio State lost twice to the same team in the same season was 1894. And we all know how that ended up. No? Actually, it was part of a 6-5 season in which the Buckeyes lost twice to Wittenberg. Coach Jack Ryder lasted two more seasons until eventually becoming a noted sportswriter at the Cincinnati Enquirer. Smart guy. Pick: Ohio State 33, Oregon 32

Sugar Bowl — (7) Notre Dame vs. (2) Georgia: For a team so used to playoff success — Kirby Smart is 6-2 in the CFP — it’s hard to envision Georgia success against Notre Dame. The rushing game is averaging its fewest yards in at least 10 years. The last time Georgia was this bad defensively was 2013. Oh, and Carson Beck just declared for the NFL Draft after being ruled out of the CFP with an elbow injury. That’s another way of saying the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal is falling into the lap of Notre Dame. Start with the fact the Fighting Irish have the best running back (Jeremiyah Love), quarterback (Riley Leonard) and best secondary on the field. Georgia, meanwhile, has backup Gunner Stockton in his first career start. 

While Stockton looked capable against Texas, going against the Notre Dame defense is different. Forget the Irish gave up 557 yards to USC in the regular-season finale. When it counted against Indiana, ND completely smothered Kurtis Rourke. This game has that look. Stockton is going to have to throw to win. Leonard has more career touchdowns (75) than Stockton has career pass attempts (51). This is a turn-the-corner moment for the Irish, who haven’t won a major bowl in 30 years. In this game, the defense can stand toe-to-toe with the Dawgs having won 11 in a row since the Northern Illinois game. Marcus Freeman has low key developed into one of the best coaches in the country. Pick: Notre Dame 23, Georgia 19