One thing hasn’t changed in the 12-team College Football Playoff picture: Independent Notre Dame is still an X factor.

When the 13-member CFP selection committee meets next week for its first ranking of the season, one of its most significant discussions will center around one-loss Notre Dame, which each week continues to distance itself from the home loss to Northern Illinois and also has a critical head-to-head win against surging Texas A&M.

Head-to-head results are one of several tiebreakers the committee uses to separate teams with the same record — just like last year, when Texas won at Alabama in Week 2. And it continued to matter through Selection Day, when the Longhorns were kept above the Crimson Tide all season because of that win.

Head-to-head results, though, aren’t always the final answer — like in 2021, when the committee ranked Michigan ahead of Michigan State in spite of a Spartans win on Oct. 30. Strength of schedule looms large in the room, and the Fighting Irish still own the worst loss in the country — and one of the best wins.

So, where is Notre Dame after its lopsided 51-14 victory against previously undefeated Navy on Saturday?

This is a snapshot of what the committee might do today — through eight weeks of data. This is not a ranking. This is what the seeding and bracket would look like based on the committee’s projected top 12 for this week — plus a look at eight more teams who could play their way in, and how the Group of 5 race stacks up.

Jump to a topic:
Byes | First-round matchups
Last two in | First four out
Next four out | Group of 5

Projected 12-team bracket

First-round byes

Note: Seeding is based on my projected top 12 from the CFP committee.

No. 1 seed Oregon Ducks: Oregon holds on to the top spot for a second straight week, this time after a convincing win against Illinois. The Ducks are here as the projected Big Ten champion and the selection committee’s No. 1 team overall on Selection Day. The Ducks could see Ohio State, which they beat on Oct. 12, again in Big Ten championship game. According to ESPN Analytics, Oregon has the second-best chance in the country to earn a first-round bye (36.7%), behind Miami (51.9%).

No. 2 seed Georgia Bulldogs: Georgia would earn the No. 2 seed as the committee’s second-highest ranked conference champion, but the Bulldogs still own the best résumé in the country. According to ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, the average playoff contender would have a 15% chance to go 6-1 against Georgia’s schedule. Georgia’s convincing season-opening win against Clemson and the road win at Texas give the Bulldogs two of the best wins in the country.

No. 3 seed Miami Hurricanes: The Canes would earn this seed as the ACC champion and the committee’s third-highest ranked conference champion. While beating a seven-loss Florida State team isn’t what it used to be, Miami is still No. 2 in the country behind Georgia in Strength of Record, giving the average playoff contender a 16% chance to go 8-0 against the Canes’ schedule. Miami remains on track to face Clemson in the ACC championship game, and nobody in the country has a better chance to earn a first-round bye than Miami (51.9%), according to ESPN Analytics.

No. 4 seed BYU Cougars: The Cougars earned this spot again as the projected Big 12 champion and the committee’s fourth-highest ranked conference champion. What’s separating BYU from Iowa State right now in the projected committee ranking is the Cougars’ road win at SMU, which continues to look good after the Mustangs beat Duke (6-2) in overtime on Saturday, 28-27. The Cougars also have a second win against a ranked opponent, beating Kansas State on Sept. 21 and helping BYU rank No. 3 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric. BYU and Iowa State don’t play each other during the regular season but could face off in the Big 12 title game. Iowa State’s best win is against an Iowa team that’s now 5-3.

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About the 12-team College Football Playoff

The College Football Playoff expands to 12 teams this season. Learn how it will play out, from the first round through the national championship game on Jan. 20, 2025.

First-round matchups (on campus)

No. 12 Tennessee Volunteers at No. 5 Penn State Nittany Lions
Winner plays: No. 4 BYU

Explaining the seeding: This shows how Penn State could be the committee’s No. 3 team overall but not be seeded higher than fifth because the first four seeds are reserved for conference champions. They’d earn a first-round home game, though, against the fourth and final SEC team in the bracket.

No. 9 Indiana Hoosiers at No. 8 Texas A&M Aggies
Winner plays: No. 1 Oregon

Explaining the seeding: This is the second week IU has been in the bracket, but their weak schedule is keeping them from being seeded high enough to earn a first-round home game. The Aggies’ win against LSU catapulted them into the bracket for the first time. Note the winner of this matchup has to face the top team in the country in the next round.

No. 11 Clemson Tigers at No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes
Winner plays: No. 3 Miami

Explaining the seeding: If Clemson wins this game, the Tigers would have a potential rematch with Miami in the quarters, assuming Clemson and Miami play each other for the ACC title. The committee doesn’t reseed to avoid rematches, nor does it consider that when doing its top 25 on Selection Day. The reality, though, is that if Clemson loses to Miami in the ACC championship game, it might not earn a spot in the playoff as a two-loss ACC runner-up. If that scenario played out, its best win and only one against a ranked opponent would be at Pitt.

No. 10 Boise State Broncos at No. 7 Texas Longhorns
Winner plays: No. 2 Georgia

Explaining the seeding: This one is interesting because if Texas wins this first-round game, it would have a rematch with Georgia. Texas and Georgia could also play for the SEC championship. While possible, it’s unlikely they would play each other three times because if they were in the SEC title game, the loser would have two losses and probably not earn the first-round home game here. Boise State’s seeding in this example matches its ranking, and the Broncos — as the top champion from the Group of 5 — wouldn’t have to displace any team in the committee’s top 12 because they were already ranked within it.

Last two in

No. 11 Clemson Tigers

Why they should be worried: It’s going to get more difficult for Clemson in November, especially with back-to-back trips to Virginia Tech and Pitt. If the Tigers stumble and don’t win the ACC, there will likely be two-loss teams with better résumés ahead of them.

ESPN Analytics says: The ACC has a 64% chance to send at least two teams to the CFP.

No. 12 Tennessee Volunteers

Why they should be worried: The loss at Arkansas isn’t horrible, but if the Vols don’t win at Georgia on Nov. 16, they will be banking heavily on their win against Alabama to sway the committee. Wins against NC State and Oklahoma aren’t what they once appeared to be.

ESPN Analytics says: Georgia has a 59.8% chance to win on Nov. 16.

First four out

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1)

Best win: Aug. 31 at Texas A&M, 23-13
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 at USC

If the Irish run the table and finish 11-1, it’s highly likely they would earn a spot in the CFP, but they are here for now because their schedule is No. 60, while A&M’s is No. 24, according to ESPN Analytics. The Aggies are No. 7 in Strength of Record, while Notre Dame is No. 15. This could change following the Week 10 results, but the first ranking on Nov. 5 will answer if Notre Dame’s head-to-head win over the Aggies trumps the loss to NIU, and/or how much work they still have to do.

Iowa State Cyclones (7-0)

Best win: Sept. 7 at Iowa, 20-19
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 vs. Kansas State

Iowa State is No. 86 this week in ESPN’s strength of schedule, while BYU is No. 55. BYU currently leads with a 33.1% chance to win the Big 12, followed very closely by Iowa State (31.8%), according to ESPN Analytics.

Kansas State Wildcats (7-1)

Best win: Oct. 12 at Colorado
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 at Iowa State

The loss to BYU is holding them back here, but the Wildcats keep finding ways to win, including Saturday against feisty rival Kansas. The win against the two-loss Buffs looks even better now that they’re bowl-eligible.

Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2)

Best win: Sept. 28 vs. Georgia, 41-34
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 9 at LSU

This is the first time a two-loss team has crept into this category, but 1) more teams have two losses, and 2) Alabama finally put together an impressive performance against a decent Missouri team. The Nov. 9 trip to LSU is the best remaining chance to impress the committee.

Next four out

Ole Miss Rebels (6-2)

Best win: Oct. 5 at South Carolina, 27-3
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 9 vs. Georgia

The Rebels still have a chance at a statement win when they face Georgia, but winning at Arkansas on Saturday (5-3) isn’t a gimme. Ole Miss can have a legitimate playoff shot as a two-loss team, but it has to run the table — and ESPN Analytics projects it will.

LSU Tigers (6-2)

Best win: Oct. 12 vs. Ole Miss, 29-26, OT
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 9 vs. Alabama

If LSU and Ole Miss both finish as two-loss teams, the Tigers’ head-to-head win against the Rebels could be the difference in the committee meeting room. Plus, losing in Vegas to USC could wind up looking better than losing at home to Kentucky.

Pitt Panthers (7-0)

Best win: Oct. 24 vs. Syracuse, 41-13
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 16 vs. Clemson

Pitt is playing well, but hasn’t defeated a ranked opponent and their win total includes victories against 0-8 Kent State and 3-6 Youngstown State. Saturday’s game against SMU will have a drastic impact on both teams’ playoff chances. If SMU wins, its chances increase to 40%, but they drop to 6% with a loss. Pitt’s chances would be 41% with a win, and 12% with a loss.

SMU Mustangs (7-1)

Best win: Oct. 26 at Duke, 28-27 OT
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Pitt

SMU’s best chance at the playoff is through the ACC title, and ESPN Analytics gives the Mustangs a 21% chance to do that — third behind Miami and Clemson. The head-to-head loss to BYU and the No. 77 schedule will be tough to overcome for an at-large bid.

Dropped from the bubble: Illinois

Group of 5 Power Rankings

1. Boise State Broncos (6-1), Mountain West

Best win: Oct. 25 at UNLV, 29-24

Why they’re here: Boise State’s schedule separates it from the other contenders here, along with the star power of Heisman contending running back Ashton Jeanty and being the nation’s top team in sacks. In addition to Friday night’s critical road win at UNLV, the Broncos also beat a Washington State team that is 7-1 and flying under the radar. This is Boise State’s spot to lose.

2. Army Black Knights (7-0), American Athletic

Best win: Oct. 19 vs. East Carolina, 45-28

Why they’re here: The only team with a worse schedule rank than Army (133) is Liberty. Army has no wins against Power 4 opponents, ranked opponents or teams above .500. East Carolina has four wins — and that’s as good as it gets in terms of Army victories. But Army has a chance to make it a November to remember if it can run the table, beat Notre Dame along the way and win the AAC. If that happens — AND Boise State stumbles — the Black Knights could be in. If Army and Boise State both run the table, that could be an interesting debate, but Army’s schedule would likely remain a major issue in the committee meeting room.

3. Tulane Green Wave (6-2), American Athletic

Best win: Sept. 21 at Louisiana, 41-33

Why they’re here: The Green Wave’s two losses were both nonconference games against Power 4 opponents Kansas State and Oklahoma. That won’t stop them from winning the AAC, and the head-to-head road win over what could be the Sun Belt champ — Louisiana — could be a critical tiebreaker in the committee meeting room. The last two games, against Navy and Memphis, will be Tulane’s best chance to impress the committee.

4. UNLV Rebels (6-2), Mountain West

Best win: Sept. 28 vs. Fresno State, 59-14

Why they’re here: UNLV and Boise State could face each other again in the MWC championship game if they finish as the top two teams in the league. If the Rebels avenge their regular-season loss for the league title with an upset of the Broncos, the playoff picture could change. According to ESPN Analytics, Boise State and UNLV still have the highest chances to play for the MWC title.

5. Memphis Tigers (7-1), American Athletic

Best win: Oct. 19 vs. North Texas, 52-24

Why they’re here: This one is tricky because Memphis lost to Navy and is behind the Midshipmen in the AAC standings, but there’s also a reality to the Navy situation after the loss to Notre Dame. Navy doesn’t look like it belongs anywhere near the playoff. So the question is now if Memphis can run the table, win at Tulane along the way and win the AAC. The ideal scenario for Memphis would be to face Navy again in the AAC title game and avenge the regular-season loss.