Alabama and Ole Miss were knocked to the canvas after road upsets, splintering the SEC’s College Football Playoff picture coming down the stretch. In our latest bracket projection, SMU is the major beneficiary from SEC chaos, along with Tennessee, who entered Week 13 behind the Crimson Tide and Rebels in the selection committee rankings.

That’s going to change Tuesday night if the latest AP Poll is any indication. As it stands entering rivalry week, there are four teams we consider to be playoff locks and four other in the “near-lock” tier. The selection committee will choose the five highest-ranked conference champions and seven at-large selections to make up the first 12-team playoff bracket. 

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Our projections differ slightly from the sports betting markets ahead of Tuesday night’s fourth College Football Playoff top 25 rankings reveal. Ohio State is the favorite at +270 to win the CFP title at Caesars Sportsbook. Other top contenders include Georgia at +340, Texas at +410 and Oregon +425, according to latest odds at Caesars. When you register at Caesars Sportsbook today, you can earn a welcome bonus that unlocks up to a $1,000 first bet back as a bonus bet. Use the promo code ‘CBS1000’ to claim this offer.

I only have two spots staying the same based off my projected bracket last week. 

Projected byes in College Football Playoff

1. Ohio State

Big Ten champion

The Buckeyes will garner top-seed billing if they’re able to end a three-game skid against Michigan during rivalry week and follow that up with a victory over unbeaten Oregon in the Big Ten Championship. Ohio State lost by a point to Ducks earlier this fall at Autzen Stadium.

Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +270

2. Georgia

SEC champion

Courtesy of Texas A&M’s loss at Auburn, Georgia waltzes into the SEC Championship for the fourth consecutive season under Kirby Smart. The Bulldogs plays Georgia Tech next week before taking on the winner of Texas-Texas A&M in Atlanta on Dec. 7.

Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +340

3. SMU

ACC champion

SMU has already clinched a spot in the ACC Championship next month in Charlotte, but the Mustangs need to beat Cal in Week 14 to maintain good standing in the selection committee’s rankings. A probable SMU-Miami matchup for a league title will be a competitive showdown.

Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +4000

4. Boise State

Group of Five champion

Boise State played with fire during its Week 13 win over Wyoming, but managed to hold on for a 17-13 victory, preserving its path to the Mountain West title game. The Broncos will likely meet Colorado State with a playoff ticket on the line if Boise State prevails as the highest-ranked Group of Five champion.

Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +11000

Projected CFP first-round games

Friday, Dec. 21 and Saturday, Dec. 22

5. Oregon vs. No. 12 Arizona State (in Eugene)

Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

About the Ducks: We’re expecting the Big Ten Championship’s runner-up to get the No. 5 seed as the highest-ranked non-league winner, so that goes to Oregon if Ohio State wins in Indianapolis. That means a potential quick turnaround for the Ducks against projected Big 12 champion Arizona State.

Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +425

About the Sun Devils: Hats off to Kenny Dillingham. Arizona State is the new betting favorite to win the Big 12 following Saturday’s victory over BYU coupled with Colorado’s loss at Kansas. There’s a bunch of potential tiebreaking scenarios to work through next week, but Arizona State and Iowa State are both in the driver’s seat to meet two weeks from now at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +7500

6. Texas vs. No. 11 Miami (in Austin)

Winner plays No. 3 SMU

About the Longhorns: Texas gets a first-round home game if the Longhorns beat Texas A&M at Kyle Field, but fall to Georgia in the SEC Championship. They would be an 11-win team hosting another 11-win team with Texas native Cam Ward and offensive fireworks coming to Austin. The Longhorns should be considered as playoff locks regardless, unless they get blown out in College Station. I can’t see the committee dropping them all the way out of the field from No. 3 in just one week, especially given the rest of the landscape. 

Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +410

About the Hurricanes: We’re now projecting two ACC teams to reach the playoff following SEC and Big 12 chaos over the weekend. That means Miami pushes closer to a berth if the Hurricanes handle Syracuse on the road this week, clinching a spot in the ACC finale against SMU.

Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +2800

7. Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Tennessee (in South Bend)

Winner plays No. 2 Georgia

About the Fighting Irish: Good luck getting a ticket to a first-round home playoff game for Notre Dame, who continues to look the part down the stretch following Saturday’s drubbing of previously-unbeaten Army.

Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +1400

About the Vols: Tennessee was able to happily scoreboard watch during Saturday’s win over UTEP while Ole Miss went down at Florida. Later, Alabama’s loss at Oklahoma means the Vols will jump the Crimson Tide in Tuesday’s new rankings. As long as Tennessee beats Vanderbilt to finish 10-2, the Vols are on good playoff footing.

Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +2100

8. Penn State vs. No. 9 Indiana (in Happy Valley)

Winner plays No. 1 Ohio State

About the Nittany Lions: The expectation is a first-round home game at Beaver Stadium for 11-1 Penn State as long as James Franklin’s team handles their business against Maryland in the regular-season finale. We don’t envision Indiana jumping ahead of Penn State in the rankings.

Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +1800

About the Hoosiers: Indiana was a major winner on Saturday despite suffering its first loss of the season in Columbus due to Alabama and Ole Miss suffering upset losses. Indiana is all but assured a playoff berth with a win next week over Purdue.

Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +5000

College Football Playoff quarterfinals are at the following bowl sites this year: Fiesta (Dec. 31), Rose (Jan. 1), Sugar (Jan. 1) and Peach (Jan. 1). Among notable tie-ins in the expanded playoff, the Sugar Bowl automatically gets the SEC champion in the quarterfinals, so second-seeded Georgia would be playing in New Orleans while the Rose Bowl welcomes the Big Ten champion to Pasadena.

MORE: How the committee will select the inaugural 12-team field