Oh, the highs and lows in the state of Florida! Miami and UCF are 3-0 and rolling thanks in part to high-profile offseason transfer quarterback additions. Meanwhile, the fire alarm won’t stop going off in Tallahassee and it might be even warmer under Billy Napier‘s office chair in Gainesville.

Let’s dive into the week that was in college football, which included some unfortunate injuries, a few massive comebacks and a lot of angst in the Sunshine State.

THE BIG TAKEAWAY: THE HANGOVER FROM TRANSFER PORTAL SUCCESS

There is no program more synonymous with the transfer portal than Florida State.

Mike Norvell first used the portal as a means of survival. Then the Seminoles turned it into a means of contention, supplementing a good-but-not-great roster with game-changing pieces like Keon Coleman or Jared Verse.

It worked: A 13-0 2023 regular season, an ACC title and an eight-year extension for Norvell.

But after 10 players were drafted — nine of them transfers — and 14 overall starters departed, the Seminoles opted for a Costco-sized portal class once again. They brought in 17 players hoping to continue the momentum from the previous season.

Instead, the Seminoles are the first team since 1976 to go unbeaten in the previous regular season and begin the next year 0-3 overall; an indignity that became reality following a 20-12 loss to Memphis, the team Norvell left to join FSU five years ago.

There are many reasons for Florida State’s putrid start. It’d be disingenuous to pin them all on the portal. But it’s worth considering the history of some programs who hit the jackpot (a top-10 finish after 10-plus transfer signees) with a portal push and what happened to them the following season.

2021 Michigan State: Signed 13 transfers ahead of the season and roared to 11 wins.

2022 Michigan State: Lost eight starters, signed nine transfers and receded to 5-7 overall.

2022 TCU: Signed 14 transfers ahead of the season and made the national title game.

2023 TCU: Lost 11 starters, signed 13 transfers and tumbled to 5-7.

Like with FSU this year, those teams experienced significant drops in success for a variety of factors. But they are the best examples of going all in on the portal and finding immediate success.

What I’d argue the year-to-year drop shows is the difficulty of consistently hitting on your evaluations in what, despite plenty of snaps of data, remains a difficult evaluation process. I’m sure Mel Tucker and Sonny Dykes would point out that losing players like Kenneth Walker and Max Duggan played large roles in the drops off, and that’s of course the case. But the overall point stands: Sustained success is really only possible with development.

What’s interesting about those teams compared to FSU is how Tucker and Dykes were first-year coaches when they first went heavy in the portal. Norvell signed 17 transfers this offseason entering Year 5.

There are two ways to think about that:

1. FSU lost a ton of experience — it wasn’t just a portal-heavy team, it was an old team — and felt sustained contention meant replacing some of that experience with like experience.

2. The high school development hasn’t been up to par.

It’s probably a bit of both. But it is damning that Norvell, by Year 5, doesn’t have a roster at a place like FSU that’s capable of standing on its own without heavy portal additions.

Obviously, the portal is part of college football’s fabric. If a portal player can help your two-deep, you grab him.

Yet FSU’s 2024 swoon does not speak well for the team’s 2021, 2022 and 2023 classes, which should be the core of an ACC contender.

Yes, FSU is producing draft picks and made many of those transfers much better. But an 0-3 start against unranked competition is an ominous sign for the Seminoles’ future.

This is an idea that bears watching moving forward, not only in Tallahassee but at places like SMU, Ole Miss, UCLA and Louisville. Any program that aligns itself as a portal-focused program should be paying attention.

Portal success can put you over the top and erase roster holes. It’s also possible to binge multiple years in a row and win a lot of games. Lane Kiffin‘s run in Oxford is proof. But success in the portal over and over and over again? It’s a big ask.

REPORT CARD

A. Pitt’s fourth-quarter heroics

Crazy stat: From 2005 to 2023, the Pittsburgh Panthers were 0-72 when trailing by double digits in the fourth quarter.

This year, the Panthers are 2-0 in that situation.

Pittsburgh first pulled the magic act last week, erasing a 21-point deficit with 20 minutes remaining to beat Cincinnati. The Panthers did it again this week, erasing a 10-point deficit with five minutes remaining in a 38-34 win over West Virginia (1-2).

The Panthers are suddenly very fun. The combination of new offensive coordinator Kade Bell (Western Carolina) and quarterback Eli Holstein (Alabama) have turned a middling Pittsburgh offense — 87th in yards per play in 2023 — into a unit that’s averaged 40.3 points per game early this year. Holstein, a four-star signee of the Crimson Tide just a season ago, has cleared the 300-yard barrier in every game.

I’m sure the Big 12 offices are thankful that the Panthers have no remaining games against the league on their schedule. The ACC should keep an eye on Pittsburgh, too. The Panthers don’t play a ranked team until mid-November. They can go on a run.

B. Texas’ win over UTSA

How you think about Texas‘ 56-7 win over UTSA depends on whether you’re a glass-half-full or glass-half-empty type of fan.

1. The Longhorns saw starting quarterback and Heisman frontrunner Quinn Ewers exit the game in the first quarter with an abdominal injury. Not good.

Neither were injuries to All-American Kelvin Banks (he returned) and starting cornerback Malik Muhammad during a season in which injuries are already piling up.