College football bowl projections: Final predictions for schedule as Playoff release looms

Posted by Admin December 8, 2024 Football

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College football’s conference championship games are complete. We tried our best to guess how the committee will seed the 12-team Playoff, but go easy on us. This has never been done before.

Big Ten champion Oregon and SEC champion Georgia are the obvious 1-2 seeds. Based on last week’s rankings, Mountain West champ Boise State gets the No. 3 seed, and Big 12 champ Arizona State gets the No. 4 seed. ACC champ Clemson would not get a bye and instead will likely be either the No. 11 or 12 seed.

Which could depend on whether SMU or Alabama gets the last at-large spot. It’s a coin flip, but given the Mustangs lost to Clemson on a last-second 56-yard field goal, we find it unlikely they would drop from No. 8 in the rankings to No. 12.

As for the other seeding, the best guess here is 11-1 Notre Dame moves up to the No. 5 seed, with 11-2 Texas dropping to the No. 6 seed. If so, 11-2 Penn State may fall behind 10-2 Ohio State due to their head-to-head result and land at the No. 8 seed.

GO DEEPER

College Football Playoff 2024 projections: SMU favored over Alabama for final spot

As for other bowls, we feel most confident in predicting the BYU-Colorado Alamo Bowl and Miami-Iowa State Pop-Tarts Bowl. The rest of the ACC and SEC’s bowl lineups will be dictated by whether Alabama or SMU goes up to the CFP.

Friendly reminders: 1) Most non-CFP bowls do not have to select teams in order of conference standings. 2) Legacy Pac-12 teams will participate in the Pac-12’s bowl lineup this year and in 2025, not the lineups of their current leagues. That means the Alamo Bowl could have two Big 12 teams competing against one another in both years, and that scenario is virtually guaranteed this year.

Teams shaded in blue in the tables indicate the official matchup.

College Football Playoff

Bowl/Playoff	Date	Team	Team
Playoff	Dec. 20	6. Texas	11. Clemson (ACC champ)
Playoff	Dec. 21	5. Notre Dame	12. SMU
Playoff	Dec. 21	7. Ohio State	10. Indiana
Playoff	Dec. 21	8. Penn State	9. Tennessee
Fiesta	Dec. 31	3. Boise State (G5 champ)	Texas/Clemson winner
Peach	Jan. 1	4. Arizona State (Big 12 champ)	Notre Dame/SMU winner
Rose	Jan. 1	1. Oregon (Big Ten champ)	Penn State/Tennessee winner
Sugar	Jan. 1	2. Georgia (SEC champ)	Ohio State/Indiana winner
Orange	Jan. 9	Quarterfinal winner	Quarterfinal winner
Cotton	Jan. 10	Quarterfinal winner	Quarterfinal winner
Championship	Jan. 20	Semifinal winner	Semifinal winner

Remaining bowls

Bowl	Date	Team	Team
Bahamas	Jan. 4	Buffalo (MAC)	Liberty (C-USA)
Duke’s Mayo	Jan. 3	Minnesota (Big Ten 6)	Virginia Tech (ACC 5-7)
First Responder	Jan. 3	Arkansas State (ESPN)	UTSA (ESPN)
Gator	Jan. 2	Duke (ACC 2-4)	Florida (SEC 3-8)
Texas	Dec. 31	Baylor (Big 12 4)	LSU (SEC 3-8)
Citrus	Dec. 31	Illinois (Big Ten 2)	Alabama (SEC 2)
Sun	Dec. 31	Louisville (ACC 5-7)	Washington (Pac-12 5)
ReliaQuest	Dec. 31	Iowa (Big Ten 3)	South Carolina (SEC 3-8)
Music City	Dec. 30	Nebraska (Big Ten 4)	Ole Miss (SEC 3-8)
Independence	Dec. 28	Army (AAC)	Oklahoma* (Pac-12 7)
Alamo	Dec. 28	BYU (BIg 12 2)	Colorado (Pac-12 2)
Military	Dec. 28	East Carolina (AAC 2)	Georgia Tech (ACC)
Arizona	Dec. 30	Colorado State (MWC)	Miami of Ohio (MAC)
Pop-Tarts	Dec. 28	Iowa State (Big 12 3)	Miami (ACC 2-4)
New Mexico	Dec. 28	Marshall (MWC)*	North Texas (ESPN)
Pinstripe	Dec. 28	Michigan (Big Ten 5)	Boston College (ACC 5-7)
Fenway	Dec. 28	Pittsburgh (ACC)	UConn (ESPN)
Vegas	Dec. 27	USC (Pac-12 4)	Texas A&M (SEC 3-8)
Holiday	Dec. 27	Syracuse (ACC 2-4)	Washington State (Pac-12 3)
Liberty	Dec. 27	Kansas State (Big 12 5)	Missouri (SEC 3-8)
Birmingham	Dec. 27	Vanderbilt (SEC 9)	NC State (ESPN)
Armed Forces	Dec. 27	TCU (Big 12 7)	Navy (ESPN)
68 Ventures	Dec. 26	Georgia Southern (Sun Belt)	Bowling Green* (C-USA)
Rate	Dec. 26	Rutgers (Big Ten 7)	Texas Tech (Big 12 6)
GameAbove	Dec. 26	Texas State (Big Ten 8)*	Toledo (MAC)
Hawaii	Dec. 24	San Jose State (MWC)	USF (ESPN)
Idaho Potato	Dec. 23	Fresno State (MWC)	NIU (MAC)
Myrtle Beach	Dec. 23	Coastal Carolina (ESPN)	North Carolina (ESPN)
Gasparilla	Dec. 20	Tulane (ESPN)	Arkansas (ESPN)
Cure	Dec. 20	Jacksonville State (ESPN)	Ohio (ESPN)
New Orleans	Dec. 19	Louisiana (Sun Belt)	Sam Houston (C-USA)
LA Bowl	Dec. 18	California (Pac-12 6)	UNLV (MWC 1)
Boca Raton	Dec. 18	Western Kentucky (ESPN)	James Madison (ESPN)
Frisco	Dec. 17	Memphis (ESPN)	West Virginia (ESPN)
Salute to Veterans	Dec. 14	South Alabama (ESPN)	Western Michigan (ESPN)

Notes: (ESPN) indicates an ESPN Events bowl. Teams can be moved between them. An asterisk (*) indicates a replacement team because a league was not able to fill all of its slots.

(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic, Photos: Don Juan Moore / Getty)