Nadal retired from professional tennis last November, but Djokovic will be staring at the new ‘Rafa’ when he takes the Rod Laver Arena on Tuesday in the quarterfinal clash against Carlos Alcaraz. It too will be his first meeting with the Spaniard in Melbourne, with Djokovic leading the overall head-to-head record 4-3 after his win in the Paris Olympics final.

“Like most of our matches, I hope Carlos and I can embrace a great battle. There have been only two uneven encounters between us. I played well against him at the 2023 ATP Finals, and he responded in last year’s Wimbledon final,” he said.

“The other matches were long and exhausting. They remind me of my duels against Rafa Nadal regarding the intensity and energy we bring to the court,” he added.

Ahead of the blockbuster clash at the Australian Open, we take a look at where the match between Alcaraz and Djokovic will be decided…

Why Alcaraz will win against Djokovic?

Rarely does a player enter an Australian Open match against Djokovic as the favourite. Alcaraz may not have won any hardcourt matches against the Serb, in two of their clashes on the surface, the most significant of them being the epic Cincinnati Open final of 2023, but a better show in Melbourne last week puts him ahead in the contest.

Over the off-season, Alcaraz worked extensively on his serve, and then cheekily dubbed himself as a “serve bot” after firing 14 aces during his second-round win against Japan’s Yoshihito Nishioka. While, he has notched up a staggering 80 per cent win behind his first delivery and 59 on his second, Alcaraz has managed to land only 66 per cent of his first serves. The figures ranks him below 50 for first serve percentage at this year’s tournament, and so does Djokovic, who has landed 64 per cent of his first serves at the 2025 Australian Open to claim 7 per cent win behind them.

With both being inseparable on the second serve, it will be the first serves where the match could be decided for Alcaraz, given his better return show against the first delivery in Melbourne last week. The Spaniard has 41 per cent win against opponent’s first serve.

He also has been relentless from the back of the court, winning a jaw-dropping 58 per cent (206/358) of baseline points en route to his run to the quarterfinal, with the figure putting him well ahead of his competitors in Melbourne. In fact, according to an Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis, the average baseline win percentage for the tournament thus far has been 47, with only 22 players having recorded a number north of 50. Alcaraz has been equally strong at the net, having racked up 76 per cent win, the fourth-best in the tournament.

Another factor that puts Alcaraz ahead has been his forehand numbers. The four-time Slam winner has recorded 79 winners off his forehand, 54 more than his backhand, and also committed eight fewer errors. At the cost of reducing four per cent of top spin on is forehand, Alcaraz made his forehand more threatening by adding extra 3 kmph speed behind it, which resulted in him recorded more winners.

The final factor that Alcaraz will need to keep in mind has been Djokovic’s struggle on mid-length rallies. The Serb has a negative ratio (92/96) on rallies between 5-8 shots.

Why Djokovic will win against Alcaraz?

Despite the numbers being in favour of Alcaraz, Melbourne is and has been Djokovic’s den. He has a staggering 94-9 record at the Australian Open, where no other player has won more matches than him in history, nor at the Rod Laver Arena.

He did fumble during the opening two matches, where he lost a set each, resulting in him to spend more overall time on court (11 hours) compared to the Spaniard (7 hours, 45 minutes), but he was back to his best in the next two matches, where he recorded straight-set wins, displaying incredible ball striking and defense.

With Alcaraz struggling to land more of his first serves, Djokovic will be waiting to pound on the second delivery, having recorded an impressive 59 per cent win behind the second delivery. The Serb would also be wanting to keep the rallies long, which is where he has been dominating amid his battle with respiratory issues during the tournament. 20 per cent of his rallies has had shots greater than nine, where he won 93 of the total 147 points played.

Who will win?

It will always be difficult to write off Djokovic in any contest, let alone in a match at the Australian Open, but Alcaraz will be the slight favourite in the quarterfinal contest. But what will be worth anticipating is if the clash will match the Nadal-Djokovic 2012 epic.