Debate reignites as swansong confirmed

Last year’s Future Champions Day all the talk was about City Of Troy as he swanned off under Ryan Moore with the Dewhurst in his back pocket. This year’s Future Champions Day all the talk was about City Of Troy despite him being in his box at Ballydoyle about 400 miles away from Newmarket.

Exactly 12 months on from being dubbed ‘our Frankel’ by his Coolmore owners, the timing of City Of Troy’s retirement was confirmed on Saturday when it was announced the Breeders’ Cup Classic will be his swansong after which he will stand at Coolmore’s base in Fethard, County Tipperary, rather than at Ashford Stud in Kentucky.

Such a release was bound to be complete with gushing praise from trainer Aidan O’Brien and he didn’t disappoint, labelling City Of Troy as “…definitely the best we’ve ever trained, no doubt about it.”

Not one to miss an opportunity to dig a little deeper, Racing TV’s Lydia Hislop cornered O’Brien at Newmarket and asked him to explain why he reasons this when he is only the 16th* best horse he has trained at present according to Timeform ratings, an excellent question to which O’Brien provided some illuminating thoughts.

The gist was he was brilliant at two (his best-ever two-year-old) and then at three he had put his winning Derby-Eclipse-Juddmonte sequence together despite adversity, referencing his Guineas blip, the unique challenges of Epsom and the soft ground/lack of pace that counted against him at Sandown.

But in between all that and his career timeline the most telling aspect of O’Brien’s answer was the excitement etched into his face when he began discussing City Of Troy’s next and final start at Del Mar and the prospect of even better to come.

“I think you’re only going to see the real City Of Troy when we let him go like he was as a two-year-old,” O’Brien said. “But he’s only going to be ready for that on his next start.

“He’ll be let go, there’s no doubt about that, but you know the Breeders’ Cup Classic… you know the pace they go, it’ll depend on how it’ll go for Ryan… but he’ll be letting him rock, so it will be interesting to see.”

Confirmation, not that we needed it, that City Of Troy’s whole season has revolved around working back from his Breeders’ Cup Classic assignment, where he might just be able to justify his trainer’s assertion that he is indeed the best horse he has ever trained.

Timeform’s view on O’Brien’s best

Hawk Wing’s freaky success in the 2003 Lockinge Stakes when a four-year-old remains the benchmark for an O’Brien-trained horse according to Timeform, the 136 he posted at Newbury that day the number City Of Troy will have to usurp if using ratings as a steer in the best-ever argument.

Three of O’Brien’s other Derby winners from Epsom are also above City Of Troy in the Timeform list; Galileo, High Chaparral and Australia, while Rip Van Winkle’s proximity to Sea The Stars in the 2009 Coral-Eclipse ensures he sits in joint-second.

There is a ‘p’ for improvement attached to City Of Troy’s rating of 131, so there is at least agreement in O’Brien’s faith that there is even better to come from his son of Justify, his strength at the line and the fact he took plenty of pulling up at York a sign that his trainer hasn’t got to the bottom of him yet.

In the Coolmore press release about City Of Troy’s future released at the weekend his lowering of Sea The Stars’ track record by almost a second at York in this year’s Juddmonte International was unsurprisingly mentioned, despite it being only the 15th best timefigure in the race this century according to our timefigure guru Graeme North.

These things are all relative and time comparison with other races on the same card are crucial in a bid to assess on the day conditions like prevailing wind and the quickness of the ground, factors that will all be taken into consideration at Del Mar, as well.

But clockwatchers will be keen to see if City Of Troy can break the two-minute barrier in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, with Candy Ride’s Del Mar track record over one and a quarter miles of 1:59.11 and Knicks Go’s 1:59.57, from the last occasion the Breeders’ Cup was held at the place ‘Where The Turf Meets The Surf’, the key times to watch out for.

What does City Of Troy need to do to enhance his rating?

City Of Troy’s Juddmonte International win was superb and it might look even better after the QIPCO British Champion Stakes on Saturday when York runner-up Calandagan bids to do his bit for the form at Ascot.

Indeed, perhaps City Of Troy might even go into the Breeders’ Cup Classic with a higher Timeform rating than 131p should collateral form be sufficient enough for a slight nudge here and a gentle tweak there in the build-up to Del Mar.

But even so, if he is to climb up the O’Brien list and get closer to Hawk Wing, or even bypass his 136, then a jaw-dropping performance, of the like we have not seen from City Of Troy as a three-year-old, might well be required.

Putting lengths between himself and the American challenge will be vital on that score, with the 127+ rating Fierceness achieved in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream back in March the best dirt form on offer in the race, which is clearly a key reason why City Of Troy has emerged as the clear favourite for the Breeders’ Cup Classic despite never having raced on such a surface.

“For us he’s been so exciting all the way, but the story is unfolding,” O’Brien said while justifying his trumpeting of City Of Troy as the best he has ever trained.

“He’s something that we’ve never had, he’s clear-winded, he’s a great mover, he’s an unbelievable mind, he’s hardy, he’s a beautifully made horse, he’s so well made he doesn’t look as big as he is. He’s all the special things that we haven’t seen ever before.”

A Breeders’ Cup Classic for O’Brien would be both special and something we haven’t seen before. It would certainly give extra substance to the ‘City Of Troy is O’Brien’s best’ argument, as well. For some racing fans and the likes of Timeform to agree, though, a career-defining wow performance will be needed.

More on City Of Troy & the Breeders’ Cup Classic

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