I thought I had tough losses two weeks ago. But, the Chicago Bears said, “Hold my beer” last week, and gave me the worst beat of the season, losing after a successful Hail Mary from Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels as time expired. Nonetheless, Week 8 was my best in the Circa Million VI NFL Handicapping Contest. 

Week 8 Recap: 4-1

1. Los Angeles Rams (+3) ✅
2. Chicago Bears (-2.5) ❌
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) ✅
4. Buffalo Bills (-3) ✅
5. Indianapolis Colts (+5) ✅

Despite my 19-21 record, which ties me for 2,946th out of 5,816 entries, I’m seeing it well right now and, eventually, the wins will come. I started my epic NFL heater this time last season. From Week 9 in 2023 to Week 3 this year, I didn’t have a losing record betting the NFL. I need a similar run to sneak into the money this season.

Circa Million VI NFL Week 9 Picks

Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.

1. Colts (+5.5)
2. Green Bay Packers (+3)
3. Dallas Cowboys (+3)
4. Rams (-1.5)
5. Carolina Panthers (+7)

Circa Million VI Pick #1: Colts (+5.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Indianapolis is my favorite pick in NFL Week 9 because coach Shane Steichen is an elite playcaller, Colts QB Joe Flacco has solid weapons, including RB Jonathan Taylor and WRs Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce. Plus, Indy has an edge in the trenches, and NFL defenses will figure out Vikings QB Sam Darnold in his first year in coach Kevin O’Connell’s scheme. 

(LISTEN to Colts-Vikings analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Pick #2: Detroit Lions at Packers (+3)

Green Bay will be popular this week after announcing QB Jordan Love will play Sunday. However, even with Love under center, the Packers are still getting +3 because Detroit is the highest power-rating team in the market, which makes this a sell-high spot for the Lions. 

Ultimately, no visitor should be a favorite at Lambeau Field. The Packers are 6-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) as home underdogs since hiring head coach Matt LaFleur in 2019. They are 12-9 SU and 15-6 ATS as underdogs vs. teams with a winning record over that span. 

(LISTEN to Lions-Packers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Pick #3: Cowboys (+3) at Atlanta Falcons

Dallas QB Dak Prescott will have all day in the pocket vs. Atlanta’s non-existent pass rush to find WR CeeDee Lamb. Prescott and CeeDee connected 13 times for 146 yards and two passing touchdowns in the Cowboys’ 30-24 loss to the 49ers on Sunday Night Football last week.

Speaking of which, it’s sharp to bet teams bouncing back from primetime losses in the NFL because the public fades them the next week. That plus the Falcons winning four of their last five games has me thinking “Dallas +3” is a trap line. This is a rare game where the Cowboys will be the unpopular side. 

(LISTEN to Cowboys-Falcons analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Pick #4: Rams (-1.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Seattle’s defense has allowed 35 points per game in the last four games. The Seahawks are especially terrible vs. the run, ranking 29th in rush defense success rate. Rams head coach Sean McVay would love to give QB Matthew Stafford a break and establish the run with RB Kyren Williams, who has 20+ carries in four games this season. 

The Rams upset the Minnesota Vikings 30-20 on Thursday Night Football last week. They played their best game of the season on both sides of the ball last week. Los Angeles kept Vikings superstar WR Justin Jefferson out of the end zone and held RB Aaron Jones to 58 rushing yards on 19 carries.  

Williams had 27 carries for 93 yards with a receiving touchdown. Los Angeles stuck with the run despite averaging just 3.3 yards per rush as a team, WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua played in their first games in weeks. Stafford threw a season-high 4 touchdowns and wasn’t sacked.

McVay and Stafford put on an absolute clinic, and they are coming off a mini-bye with extra time to prepare for the Vikings. If the Rams can land body blows on the Seahawks with the ground game, Stafford can throw haymakers to Kupp and Puka. 

LAR has played a much tougher schedule. The Rams have wins over the San Francisco 49ers and Vikings. Seattle’s best wins are the Denver Broncos with a rookie quarterback making his first start, and the Falcons, the worst pass rush in the NFL. Essentially, the Rams are in the same tier as the Bills, Niners, and Lions, who have all waxed the Seahawks. 

(LISTEN to Rams-Seahawks analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Pick #5: New Orleans Saints at Panthers (+7)

NOLA’s offense has been terrible since QB Derek Carr injured his oblique in Week 5. The Saints scored 6 points in a 26-8 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers last week. Carr returns Sunday, but New Orleans shouldn’t be -7 road favorites over anyone, including Carolina. After all, the Saints have lost six consecutive games, including four straight ATS. 

New Orleans is 29th in yards per play differential and 28th in early-down success rate margin entering Week 8. The Saints were home underdogs vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) in Week 6 and the Denver Broncos (+2.5) in Week 7. They were -4.5 home favorites over the Panthers in their season opener. 

The Carolina Panthers (+7) over the New Orleans Saints is the pick I’m least confident in for NFL Week 9 of the Circa Million VI. (Stephen Lew-Imagn Images)

Granted, NOLA spanked them 47-10 and Carolina is the laughingstock of the NFL. Yet, if you do a 4.5-point flip for home-field advantage, this spread (“Saints -7”) says New Orleans would be -11.5 favorites at home vs. Carolina. The gap from the Saints to the Panthers didn’t widen by 7.0 points. 

Instead, the market perceives NOLA as much better than Carolina when, in reality, it isn’t. There was a similar situation like this last week. The 2-6 Jets were -7.5 road favorites vs. the 2-6 Patriots in Week 8, and New England upset NYJ 25-22. The Patriots lost rookie QB Drake Maye early in that game. Then, veteran journeyman backup QB Jacoby Brissett saved the day. 

Finally, Saints head coach Dennis Allen is a proven loser in these spots. Since promoting Allen to succeed former head coach Sean Payton, who left in 2022, New Orleans is 3-5 SU and 1-6-1 ATS as road favorites with a -4.8 spread differential. 

(LISTEN to Saints-Panthers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.