My dreams of winning the Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest have practically vanished. I went 3-2 in NFL Week 10, which isn’t good enough considering the hole I needed to climb out of. Entering Week 11, I’m 24-26 and tied for 2,867th out of 5,816 entries. The best I can hope for is to make money in the 3rd or 4th Quarters of the contest. 

Week 10 Recap: 3-2

1. Cincinnati Bengals (+6) ✅
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) ✅
3. Kansas City Chiefs (-8) ❌
4. Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) ❌
5. Houston Texans (+3.5) ✅

Like last week, I submitted my card with the Thursday Night Football (TNF) game on it. For the second straight week, and the 12th time out of 13 picks since last year, I have a win on the books heading into the weekend. Let’s see if I can finally take advantage of picking the TNF game correctly and get my first 5-0 of the season. Lord knows I need it. 

Circa Million VI NFL Week 11 Card

Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.

1. Philadelphia Eagles (-4) ✅
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)
3. Chicago Bears (+5.5)
4. New York Jets (-4)
5. Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5)

Circa Million VI Pick #1: Washington Commanders at Eagles (-4) ✅

You should just auto-bet any TNF pick I give out. After Philadelphia beat Washington 26-18 earlier this week, I’m 12-1 in my 13 TNF games used in the Circa Million NFL contest since last year. Now, if I could only replicate my success at Thursday games on the weekends, I could make some money on this contest. 

(LISTEN to Commanders-Eagles analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Pick #2: Baltimore Ravens at Steelers (+3)

Death, taxes, and the underdogs in Ravens-Steelers games are the only certainties in life. Favorites of -3 or greater in this series are 2-18-3 against the spread (ATS) since Baltimore hired head coach John Harbaugh in 2008. The Ravens are 0-10-2 ATS as -3 favorites or higher vs. Pittsburgh over that span. 

Furthermore, the Steelers are 15-11 straight up (SU) and 16-6-4 ATS as home underdogs with a +5.4 spread differential under head coach Mike Tomlin. They are 5-4 SU and 6-1-2 ATS as a home underdog in AFC North games during that stretch. 

DraftKings opened Baltimore as -3 favorites over Pittsburgh on its summer look-ahead line, and you have to upgrade the Steelers. They are 7-2 SU and ATS and first place in the AFC North. Regardless, somehow, Pittsburgh is playing with house money because people just assume the Ravens will win the division. 

Nevertheless, I’m buying stock in the Steelers with QB Russell Wilson starting. If you discard his two terrible seasons with the Denver Broncos, Wilson would be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Wilson has a 118-72-1 career record, a Super Bowl title, and a 100.0+ QB Rating in eight of his 13 NFL seasons. 

Finally, as crazy as this sounds, the gap between Baltimore’s roster and Pittsburgh’s isn’t as big as the market thinks. The big difference is between QB Lamar Jackson and Wilson. That said, the Ravens have a terrible pass defense this season, and Wilson can keep the Steelers in this game if he needs to drop back 30+ times. 

(LISTEN to Ravens-Steelers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Pick #3: Green Bay Packers at Bears (+5.5)

Maybe Chicago head coach Matt Eberflus firing now-former offensive coordinator Shane Waldron gives the offense a much-needed boost. The Bears are on a three-game losing skid since their Week 7 bye, and they are averaging 9.0 points per game. Hence, Chicago’s offense can’t get much worse. 

Also, betting the Bears to cover has been more profitable this season than betting on the Packers. After all, Chicago is 5-4 ATS and Green Bay is 4-5 ATS. The Bears hammered the Jacksonville Jaguars 35-16 in London in Week 6 and the Jaguars covered as +3.5 home underdogs in a 30-27 loss to the Packers in Week 8. 

Chicago was a -1 favorite over Green Bay for Week 11 when DraftKings listed the look-ahead line for this game in the summer. A 6.5-point line adjustment is a huge move considering the preseason expectations for those teams. The Bears had an 8.5-win total and the Packers had a 10-win total.  

But, Green Bay is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as -3.5 favorites or greater. Remember, the Packers lost outright to the New York Giants with third-string QB Tommy DeVito as -6 road favorites on Sunday Night Football last season. The Bears are bad, but they aren’t DeVito-Giants bad. 

Chicago’s defense is seventh in third-down conversion rate allowed and first in red zone TD rate allowed. Green Bay is 19th in third-down conversion rate and 29th in red zone TD rate. Their failure to extend TD drives by converting on third down to cover is why the Packers can’t cover as big favorites on the road. 

This passes the Eye Test too, because Green Bay does stupid sh*t to hurt its chances at covering, or even winning outright all the time. Packers QB Jordan Love has thrown an NFL-worst 10 interceptions and some weird pick-sixes, and they are 26th in penalties per game. 

(LISTEN to Packers-Bears analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Pick #4: Indianapolis Colts at Jets (-4)

This could be a get-right game for NYJ’s defense. Indianapolis is returning to QB Anthony Richardson after benching him for QB Joe Flacco a couple of weeks ago. Richardson has the lowest grade among 40 qualified NFL quarterbacks at Pro Football Focus (PFF) and the Colts have cluster injuries on their offensive line. 

More importantly, the Jets are finally going for a fair price. New York has been overrated this whole year despite being 3-7 SU and ATS. They were -2.5 favorites at home vs. Houston for TNF just two games ago, and the Texans are more than 1.5 points better than the Colts. In fact, Houston was -5 favorites over Indianapolis in Week 8. 

New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers celebrates a touchdown pass vs. the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. (Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images)

Lastly, I’m still giving New York a 2-point boost for home-field advantage and their underlying stats are much more impressive. The Jets have a higher net EPA, yards per play, and early-down success rate, and are better on third down and in the red zone. 

(LISTEN to Colts-Jets analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Pick #5: Chiefs (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills

This is the easiest NFL handicap ever: Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are 12-1-1 ATS as underdogs with 11 SU victories. It feels square, but I’m going with KC based on this trend and not having better options for my fifth pick this week. Would I be surprised if the Bills ended Kansas City’s undefeated season? 

No, of course not. This game is in Buffalo. Josh Allen is a top-five quarterback in the NFL, and the Bills have beaten the Chiefs in three straight regular-season meetings. Yet, this Buffalo team isn’t as good as previous years and KC is going for a three–peat. On paper, the Bills have underlying metrics, but that’s misleading. 

The Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 over the Buffalo Bills is one of my five picks in NFL Week 11 of the Circa Million VI. (Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle-USA TODAY NETWORK)

They have played the 25th-toughest schedule, per PFF, with a +8 first-down differential. Buffalo’s only win over a team above-.500 was over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1. The Bills lost to Baltimore and the Houston Texans. KC has played the fifth-toughest schedule with wins over the Ravens and San Francisco 49ers and a +43 first-down differential. 

Buffalo’s defense has a weakness the Chiefs can exploit: Stopping the run. The Bills are 30th in yards per rush allowed on defense and have given up 5.0+ yards per rush in half of their games this year. Kansas City gained 6.1 yards per rush vs. Buffalo in the AFC Divisional round last season and will do it again Sunday. 

(LISTEN to Chiefs-Bills analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.