Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: Alabama State Hornets

Posted by Admin November 25, 2024 Basketball

CINCINNATI — Dillon Mitchell and the Bearcats basketball team are back home for the Thanksgiving holiday, playing Alabama State at 7 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

It should be a no-doubt win for a UC team ranked seventh on KenPom, to ASU’s 242nd ranking nationally. Cincinnati is a 98.9% favorite on ESPN’s Matchup Predictor.

Don’t expect to see Dan Skillings Jr. make his return this week—but it should be another strong opportunity for Cincinnati to sharpen its rotation with one game between now and a road trip to Villanova (63rd nationally on KenPom).

“Any time you get a road win over a quality, Power Four team, you’re gonna feel good about it,” head coach Wes Miller said about Saturday’s 81-58 win over Georgia Tech. “I was pleased with our effort. You look down, and our depth was effective tonight. Arrinten Page, who’s an Atlanta native, fouls out in seven minutes. That put a little pressure on us, but our guys stepped up. Dillon slid down and played the small-ball five to give a good run for us. To have one of our key players in foul trouble and not miss a beat, I like that. Jizzle James is so good and gets better and better because he competes his butt off every day. He goes 0-for-5 from deep, and we score 81 despite that as he’s a good shooter, there’s a lot of good stuff.”

Wednesday could be a breakout home game for Connor Hickman after his best outing as a Bearcat on Saturday (14 points on 6-8 shooting, five rebounds).

He looks really comfortable in the two-guard role as a starter after having to vacillate between the one and two while Day Day Thomas was out. Thomas is fully back now after 16 minutes on Saturday and increasing play time moving forward. The shifty combo guard in Hickman looks like he can connect multiple units or sixth man once Skillings returns from injury.

He shouldn’t have much trouble dicing up an ASU defense ranked 267th nationally in adjusted efficiency. One big thing Hickman can try to attack here is more foul contact. He has shot one free throw so far this season and profiles as a player who can get to the rim quickly and stack easy points at the line (70.4% shooter on 2.2 attempts last season).

ASU hemorrhages free throw attempts, as the charity stripe figures to be a big advantage for Cincinnati this week (ASU allows 26.5 free throw attempts per game, 346th nationally).

Those little edges will be crucial in Big 12 play, and so far, Hickman hasn’t been able to hunt fouls. Still, Cincinnati hasn’t needed it and the veteran guard’s finding his role nicely all the same. He’s the firming piece of one of the Big 12’s deepest backcourts alongside Jizzle James, Simas Lukošius, and Thomas.

The only thing holding Cincinnati back from being arguably the most dominant team in the country thus far is rebounding. I choose dominant over best because there’s no telling how high or low Cincinnati’s ceiling is right now, having faced the 300th-toughest strength of schedule so far on KenPom.

Rebounding has held back pure domination in every game. Cincinnati won that battle by seven against Georgia Tech (36-29), but still lost the offensive rebounding battle for the fourth time in five games. UC’s defense is elite in nearly every aspect but that one category (12.6 offensive boards allowed per game, 314th nationally).

Look for players like Aziz Bandaogo (4.6 rebounds per game) to get a bit more aggressive around the rim and start bringing that number into the single digits. ASU SHOULD NOT get to 10-plus offensive boards in this game. They have three rotation players over 6-3 overall—a complete size mismatch against UC.

Dillon Mitchell (8.6 rebounds per game) cannot be the only player bringing smart timing and relentless effort on the glass. We know Skillings will join him under that status upon return, but Bandaogo and the rest of the forward unit need to step up a bit more in the meantime. ASU won’t back down as they hunt for as many extra possessions as possible to keep this close (11.8 offensive rebounds per game, 134th nationally).

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