Photo:

Renee Torbit / Churchill Downs

Horse Racing Nation has several analytical reports available for each racing day providing insights not available anywhere else. Here are the analytics that stood out the most.

First-timer power ratings

No five-star first-time starters today. Notable first-time starters include:

• Race 3: Viking (8-1) and World Chaos (6-1) are both three-star runners (3-star win rate: 8.9 percent)
• Race 4: Allied Commander (15-1) and Gypsy Dreaming (8-1) are both four-star runners (4-star win rate: 12.4 percent)

Sire surface and distance moves

Major positive moves:

• Race 7: Harvest n’Hearth (15-1) – McKinzie progeny improve from 15 percent at dirt sprints to 30 percent at dirt routes (109 percent increase)
• Race 9: Shiloh’s Mistress (3-1) – Vino Rosso offspring improve from nine percent at turf routes to 17 percent at dirt routes (93 percent increase)
• Race 5: Girl of My Dreams (6-1) – Kantharos progeny improve from 10 percent at turf routes to 17 percent at dirt sprints (71 percent increase)

Major negative moves:

• Race 9: Berna Ditty (20-1) – Bernardini offspring drop from 17 percent at dirt routes to nine percent at turf routes (50 percent decrease)
• Race 10: Halfway Tempted (5-1) – Yoshida progeny decline from 15 percent at dirt sprints to eight percent at dirt routes (43 percent decrease)

Power Picks analysis

Strongest Power Pick differentials:

• Race 6: Pinfire (3-1) scores 19 points higher than the second pick
• Race 7: Morlock (4-1) scores four points higher than the next pick

Value Power Picks (8-1 or higher ML):

• Race 4: Canisius (8-1)
• Race 9: Irish Patsy (8-1)

Pace analysis

Fastest paces:

• Race 1: Pace score of 69 – likely to produce a faster pace that may favor closers
• Race 5: Pace score of 57 – has potential to develop into a quicker pace scenario

Slowest paces:

• Race 8: Pace score of 11 – projects to be a slow pace favoring frontrunners and pace pressers
• Race 10: Pace score of 18 – could develop into a slower-paced race benefiting early speed

Best value plays, based on AI odds versus morning line:

Biggest potential odds drops:

• Race 1: Vamos Carlitos – AI-projected odds of 2-1 (5-1 ML)
• Race 4: J David – AI-projected odds of 2-1 (3-1 ML)
• Race 5: Obstreperous – AI-projected odds of 2-1 (3-1 ML)

Best fair value plays:

• Race 7: Scorpius (3-1 ML) – Fair odds indicate better value than AI-projected odds
• Race 8: G T Five Hundred (5-1 ML) – AI projects odds drop to 4-1 with fair odds at 7-2
• Race 10: Phreddie Mac (3-1 ML) – Fair odds suggest better value than AI projected 7-2

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