Chris 'The Bear' Fallica's college football Week 14 study guide

This past Saturday was another electric day in college football.

Ohio State took down undefeated Indiana with ease in a top-five showdown, Alabama lost to Oklahoma as a 14-point favorite, No. 9 Ole Miss lost to unranked Florida, No. 15 Texas A&M lost to a 4-6 Auburn team in overtime, unranked Kansas beat No. 16 Colorado by double-digits, and Arizona State took down BYU to make the Big 12 even more wide open than it already was.

With weekends like this past one, lengthy discussions ensue between myself and the fine people at FOX Sports every week as we plan our production for Big Noon Kickoff. Every Sunday night, I reflect on what transpired the day before, and send out a lengthy email to producers, researchers, and my colleagues on air about my thoughts on what happened, as well as what’s notable for the upcoming week.

I’ve decided to peel back the curtain and share those thoughts with you all, because everyone should rejoice in the splendor that is college football.

This week, five ranked teams will be on the road against unranked opponents, along with two ranked vs. ranked matchups taking place. We’ll get into those shortly. Every team in the AP top 25 plays this weekend, as the regular season comes to a close.

Let’s dive into my thoughts and games to watch for in Week 14.

Analyzing the AP poll

Eight of the current AP top 12 have either zero or one win over current ranked teams. That kind of gives me the impression the AP voters are really focusing on win-loss record and not other factors such as strength of schedule (SOS), strength of record (SOR) or quality wins. When you break it down even further, only two top 15 teams currently have a SOS ranked in the top 20— Georgia and Alabama. Four landed in the top 25, with Tennessee and Ohio State being the other two added in. And what’s even more surprising, is that there are four teams that have a SOS outside of the top 60— Notre Dame, SMU, Boise State and Arizona State. As is the case every week, it’s always interesting to pick apart the differences between the poll and the CFP rankings.

Tough spot for Bulldogs

The biggest loser in last weekend’s collection of upsets was Georgia. The injured Bulldogs were looking at two weeks off before a first round playoff game against potentially the G5 rep or Big 12 champ. Now, they are going to play in the SEC title game where if you don’t win it, you’re going to have just one week off. Now that you have to play the game, you have to win it. I think the same goes for the Big Ten title game. The loser of Ohio State vs Oregon (assuming the Buckeyes beat Michigan) could be the five seed, which would mean a coveted path, but again, less rest. Seems like these conference title games could be on life support in the expanded playoff era.

Expanded CFP has worked, or has it?

Speaking of the expanded CFP, it sure feels like the playoff has accomplished its goal. More teams and fan bases are talking about the sport and chances to make the playoff, even though very few of them have a legitimate shot to win it. It’s starting to feel like we’re going to wind up with what many thought we would get from the start— Ohio State vs Georgia. Do you agree, or am I out of bounds here? Time will tell.

On that note, I have another question. Are we headed towards a three-loss team making the CFP? I think there’s a decent chance it happens. Are Ole Miss, Alabama, or even South Carolina (we’ll talk about the Gamecocks more below) really going to be left out for teams like Tulane, Army, and Boise State? We only have one week of regular season play, so it’s about to get very interesting.

How ’bout the Blue Devils

I want to give Manny Diaz some love here. After being fired at my alma mater, he went to Penn State where he was the coordinator for one of college football’s best defenses from 2022 to 2023. In year one at Duke, he’s led them to an 8-3 record, and is just two wins away from their second 10-win season in history if he can lead them to victories against Wake Forest and in their bowl game. When looking at their three losses, what he’s done becomes even more impressive— he lost to a No. 5 Miami team in a game that was a one-point game entering the fourth quarter, lost in overtime by one point to an SMU team currently ranked No. 9, and lost against Georgia Tech (a game in which they led in the fourth quarter). He might not have been the man for the Hurricanes, but he sure looks like the guy for the Blue Devils.

Can the Dores do it?

Vanderbilt has been great as an underdog this year, going a whopping 7-1 against the spread (ATS). This week they take on Tennessee as 11-point home underdogs. Over the last five years, they’ve been outscored by an average of 44 to 14 by the Vols, and have lost by at least 18 in all of those games. The last time they beat Tennessee was in 2018. Can the Commodores pull off another upset and shake up the CFP even more?

Are the Gamecocks really CFP bound?

It could’ve been a season for the ages if South Carolina had just a few things go their way. They only lost to LSU by three points and to Alabama by two, which would have made them 10-1 with their only loss coming against Ole Miss by 24. They’ve been getting a lot of steam to make the CFP, but I’m not sure how realistic that is. Assuming the Tide and the Rebels win their final games (against Auburn and Mississippi State, respectively), they’ll likely finish behind both of them due to losing the head-to-head against each, and then you have deserving teams like Indiana, Arizona State, and a few others who will have a strong case despite possibly not playing in conference title game. It’ll be interesting to see where they land in the final edition of the rankings.

Jumpin’ Jayhawks

Kansas may be the best team in the Big 12 right now, and they won’t be in the Big 12 title game. Since October 17th, no Power 4 offense has a higher offensive expected points added (EPA) per game than the Jayhawks. Only RJ Harvey (12) has run for more touchdowns than Devin Neal in that span. Neal exploded against Colorado this past weekend, becoming just the third player this year to have 280 scrimmage yards and four scrimmage touchdowns in a game. Kansas is the first team in FBS history with a losing record to win three straight games vs ranked opponents. KU also held a fourth quarter lead in five of their six losses, with the other being a one-point game. Lance Leipold has done an incredible job with this program; for perspective, he has five wins against ranked opponents since taking over in 2021. That’s the same number of wins that Kansas had vs ranked opponents from 2000 to 2020 COMBINED. It’s a bummer they started off so slow, because they’re electric.

Here come the Irish

Are we sleeping too much on Notre Dame? They have the awful fluke loss against Northern Illinois, but since then the Irish are 9-0, outscoring opponents by an FBS best 32.6 points per game (PPG) and allowing an FBS low 11.0 PPG in that span. It doesn’t help that if Northern Illinois loses at home to Central Michigan, the Huskies will finish 6-6 and have a losing record in the MAC.

Marcus Freeman’s bunch has USC this week, and there hasn’t been an upset in that matchup since 2011— when the Trojans beat ND as a 9.5-point underdog. Since then, favorites are 11-0 outright, and 9-2 ATS in this rivalry. They should take care of business this Saturday.

Green Wave are rollin’

Most of the country is sleeping mightily on Tulane. Since September 19th, the only team in the country with a better points per game differential than Tulane (+28.5) is Notre Dame (+29.3). The only teams with a better yards per game differential than Tulane (+161.0) in that span are Miami, Texas and Penn State. Tulane is 22nd in the Sagarin rankings (an esteemed ranking system among statisticians in college football) while Boise is 33rd. When looking at FPI (football power index), the Green Wave are ranked 17th while the Broncos are 27th. People might want to reassess their thoughts on who should be the G5 rep, especially given Boise’s recent stretch of games.

Season win total alert!

It’s that time of year where people are checking how close they are to hitting their bets on Over/Under win totals. I’ve pointed out three below that stood out to me for this weekend:

Louisiana Tech’s win total was 4.5. Sonny Cumbie’s squad needs to beat a 2-9 Kennesaw State on Saturday to pick up win number five on the season and make Over bettors happy— and yes I’m one of them.

UCLA’s win total was 5.5 and after Big Ten Media days it dropped as low as four at several books. Well, with a win over Fresno State, UCLA can reward bettors who went under 5.5 and over 4 with a nice fat middle at a 5-7 record.

South Alabama’s win total was 6.5; the Jags are 6-5 and host Texas State, who just lost to a 3-8 Georgia State team.

Winless teams in conference play

Oklahoma State, Purdue and Mississippi State are all massive underdogs this weekend, and all three of them are trying to avoid finishing the season winless in conference play. This is going to be the Cowboys first time since 2005 (Mike Gundy’s first season) not playing in a bowl game, snapping an 18-year streak of doing so. The Boilermakers on the other hand are looking to avoid being 1-11 for just the second time in this century, also doing so in 2013. And on a similar note, the Bulldogs will try to avoid matching their worst record since 2003, finishing 2-10 that year. Talk about a tough year for these programs.

Historic lows for Seminoles

It’s been a season of lows for Florida State, who came into the year ranked in the top 10 of the preseason AP Poll. Barring a massive upset win against a Florida team that just took down Ole Miss and LSU in consecutive weeks, Mike Norvell’s squad is going to finish 2-10 on the year— their worst record since finishing 1-10 in 1974. There’s an argument that this might be the most disappointing team in program history given how incredible their 2023 campaign was. It’ll be very interesting to see what Norvell does in the portal, and how his recruiting class will round up come signing day.

Rebels one win away

UNLV is a massive home favorite to beat a 3-9 Nevada team, and in doing so will get their coveted rematch against Boise in the Mountain West title game. That game was a nail-biter, with the Broncos coming out on top 29-24. Excluding a game against Portland State in which he was pulled early because they were up so much, Ashton Jeanty’s season-low rushing total came against UNLV— going for 128 yards (I know, just unbelievable). He’s eclipsed 2,000 yards on the season and has scored nine touchdowns in his last four games. That game will have huge CFP implications as the Broncos need to win to assure themselves a spot in the CFP (assuming they beat Oregon State this week). But let’s not forget, UNLV also needs to win first!

Some love for Eddie George

I know we don’t talk about FCS teams a lot, but former Buckeye Eddie George has Tennessee State headed to the FCS playoffs for the first time in 11 years! The Tigers won their first Ohio Valley Conference title since 1999, and they play Montana in the first round on Saturday night. George is in his fourth season at Tennessee State, and is one of 32 players in NFL history to rush for over 10,000 yards.

“The Game”

Talk about two teams on totally different paths. The Wolverines are 6-5 in their first season removed from a national championship, while the Buckeyes are 10-1 and currently the second-ranked team in the country. Since 1978, “The Game” has only seen a 20-point spread twice— once in 2008 when Ohio State beat Michigan 42-7 as a 20.5-point favorite, and then again in 2014 when Ohio State beat Michigan 42-28 as a 21-point favorite. Sensing a theme?

Ryan Day’s defense received a lot of criticism after the loss to Oregon earlier this year, but they’ve been lights out ever since. In that span, the secondary hasn’t allowed a touchdown pass in five games, the pass rush has recorded 18 sacks, and as a whole the defense has given up just four touchdowns in 15 red zone trips.

It also reminds me of a question that our esteemed colleague Joel Klatt brought up to our Big Noon Kickoff gang last week. Is it better to use your money solely on NIL so that you can bring in new players with the existing coaching staff? Or is it better to use that money to replace a staff? Ohio State went hard into the portal this year and the result is that they’re the betting favorites to win the title in Week 14. Notable players that Day brought in this offseason include Will Howard, Caleb Downs, Quinshon Judkins, Seth McLaughlin, and Jeremiah Smith.

Buffs take on Cowboys

I’m really curious to see how big of a number Colorado puts up against 3-8 Oklahoma State on Friday. No team controls their own destiny in the Big 12, as nine teams are mathematically alive with 256 possible combinations of results that could affect who makes the conference championship game. So Deion Sanders and Co. have nothing to lose here (unless they actually lose). They’ll want to boost Travis Hunter’s Heisman numbers and send Shedeur Sanders out with a huge game. The Cowboys have allowed at least 38 points in each of their last seven games, and have allowed over 525 yards of offense in five of those instances. CU could name its number here.

Speaking of the Heisman, can a Mountain West running back really be the most outstanding player in the country? While what Jeanty is doing is out-of-this-world, what Hunter is doing is unprecedented. Just earlier this week, he was named a finalist for the Bednarik Award, Biletnikoff Award, and Maxwell Award. He probably should’ve been a finalist for the Thorpe Award as well. Oddsmakers also think the race is over as Hunter is around -800 or so to win the award. And he should be.

What’s going on in Tuscaloosa?

Kalen DeBoer took a huge loss against Oklahoma this week, in a matchup that wasn’t even close— with the final scoring being 24-3. As mentioned earlier, they were two-touchdown favorites in this game. From 2008 to last season, Alabama was 119-1 against unranked opponents. This year? The Tide are a whopping 5-2. So what’s gone wrong for Bama? Lots of people were ready to give Jalen Milroe the Heisman and Bama the national title after the Georgia win, but things look a lot different now. If Auburn pulls off the upset this week, Bama would finish 4-4 in SEC play. From 2008-2023, Alabama won 88.9% of its games against SEC opponents (127-16). And don’t forget, Auburn is coming off a huge upset win against A&M, and needs this win to become bowl eligible.

Historic matchup in Indy

This will be quite the unique game between Indiana and Purdue for the Old Oaken Bucket! Since 1978, we have not seen a Power 5 matchup between a team 10-1 or better against a team 1-10 or worse. However, there have been seven such games in G5 conferences and underdogs covered six of them. That includes the “classic” 2021 matchup between 10-1 Houston and 1-10 UConn, which the Cougars won 45-17 as a 32.5-point favorite.

Canes on upset alert?

My Canes have been a roller coaster all year. In six of their last seven games, they’ve trailed by double-digits, been tied, or only been up by one-score in the fourth quarter. They’ve won five of those games, but at what point will the bubble burst? Cam Ward set the Miami single-season passing record last week, and his play has been electric all year— currently ranking second in FBS in pass yards at 3,774. But guess who ranks first? None other than Syracuse’s Kyle McCord, with 3,946 pass yards on the year. This feels like a shootout that has upset vibes all around it.

Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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