Day one could be a bloodbath for bookies

At the time of writing, 19 of the 28 ante-post favourites for the Cheltenham Festival are trained in Ireland, with eight of that 19 currently trading at a top-priced 2/1 or less. So, with just under four weeks until things kick off, let’s see which ones warrant their banker status.

Kopek des Bordes (Timeform rating 154P), who sets a high bar in the Sky Bet Supreme (has already run to a higher Timeform rating than Slade Steel did when winning last year’s renewal) and Majborough (159p), who no longer has a Sir Gino-shaped shadow looming over him, are expected to get the ball rolling for the raiding party and both look very solid at this stage.

If that pair were to go in and Brighterdaysahead (167) does indeed turn up in the Mares’ Hurdle, then there is next to no chance that Gordon Elliott’s mare will be sent off at odds against (currently 5/4) to make up for last year’s defeat in the Dawn Run. She has attracted support in the Champion Hurdle market in recent days but, at this stage, it is very hard to see what is going to beat her if connections stick to what is supposedly plan A.

Final thoughts are negative

Assuming the coffers are full to bursting after day one, plenty will be happy to pile on Final Demand (148P) in the race now known as the Turners on Wednesday. He was deeply impressive at Leopardstown last time and looks a smashing prospect but is one I would have some reservations about.

The race he won at the DRF, the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle, has a very poor record when it comes to throwing up Cheltenham winners. In fact, one has to go all the way back to Nicanor in 2006 (when it was run at two and a half miles) to find the last horse to complete the double. As well as that, this has the potential to be one of the races of the meeting with The New Lion (143P), The Yellow Clay (146p), Sixmilebridge (141p) and Potters Charm (140) all likely to turn up. Until I know what the ground is going to be like, I’m happy to keep my powder dry in this race.

I’ve no doubt that Ballyburn (157p) will be the best horse in the Brown Advisory, but the question is do you I want to take 2/1 about a horse who isn’t guaranteed to get the trip? He wasn’t stopping at the end of the Ballymore last year and found plenty after the last at Leopardstown last time, so I’d find it hard to oppose him at this stage.

We don’t have any entries for some of the other races on the Wednesday, but I wouldn’t be in any hurry to take short prices about Stumptown (as short as 9/4) in the Cross Country or Copacabana (4/1 in places) in the bumper. In fairness to Copacabana, there was lots to like about his performance at Navan last weekend but a Timeform rating of 108p is well short of what the likes of Windbeneathmywings (119), Jalon d’Oudairies (116) or even his stable companion, Bambino Fever (110p and will be in receipt of a 7 lb mares allowance), have already achieved.

The Irish ‘Bankers’ not to oppose

• Kopek Des Bordes (Supreme Novices’)
• Majborough (Arkle)
• Brighterdaysahead (Mares’)
• Ballyburn (Brown Advisory)
• Fact To File (Ryanair)
• Galopin Des Champs

The Irish ‘Bankers’ worth taking on

• Final Demand (Turners Novices’ Hurdle)
• Stumptown (Cross Country)
• Copacabana (Champion Bumper)
• Teahupoo (Stayers’ Hurdle)
• It’s On The Line (Hunters’ Chase)

Hard to look away from Fact

The Ryanair is another race that is a bit up in the air at the moment and lots will depend on what connections decide to do with Fact To File (172). Having been outstayed twice in a row by Galopin des Champs at Leopardstown, this would look the obvious target and I won’t be betting against him if this is where he turns up.

Teahupoo (163) is one I was keen to take on last year and, despite getting my fingers burnt, it is a similar story this time around. Let’s make no bones about it, this is not a strong division and Teahupoo should be reaching his prime right now.

However, we don’t get to see him very often these days and this does at least promise to be a stronger renewal than last year. Lucky Place (151), Rocky’s Diamond (149) and The Wallpark (149) have all emerged onto the staying scene this year and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Langer Dan (?) was to suddenly find his form back at one of his favourite stomping grounds.

Three Gold Cups on the line on Friday

Unlike in recent years, there won’t be an Irish banker in the Triumph, the Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase looks wide open and it is hard to know what will turn up in the Albert Bartlett at this stage. I’d be very keen on The Yellow Clay in the last named but he seems likely to go elsewhere.

The Hunters’ Chase is no stranger to an upset and anyone who watched It’s On The Line (135) toil at Naas last weekend will wonder just why he is still at the head of the market. He usually takes plenty of stoking up so the re-application of headgear may help but even so I’d have no problem taking him on at current odds.

Of course, by the time that race is run we will know whether Galopin des Champs (179) has become just the fifth horse to win three Gold Cups. If Fact To File defects to the Ryanair, that would leave Banbridge (170) as the main danger to the favourite on ratings. I don’t think Banbridge will stay the Gold Cup trip so, although he is sure to be sent off at prohibitive odds, I fully expect Galopin des Champs to send his ever-growing band of supporters home happy.

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