The 2024 NFL playoff picture is really taking shape as the regular season winds down. And Thursday night could go a long way toward defining the AFC race, in particular, with the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers set to rematch in a critical AFC West showdown. Two months after Jim Harbaugh’s Bolts survived a Denver comeback attempt to get the best of their rivalry, can Bo Nix, Sean Payton and Co. strike back as they look to secure the Broncos’ first ticket to the postseason since they won it all back in 2015?

This one’s must-see material. So how can you tune in? Which matchups are most pivotal? And who’s primed to walk away with the win? Here’s our preview and sports betting prediction:

Chargers vs. Broncos where to watch

Date: Thursday, Dec. 19 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
Stream: Prime Video 
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chargers -2.5, O/U 41.5 (SportsLine consensus)

Keys to the game

• Can the Chargers keep Justin Herbert upright? The quarterback enters Thursday’s contest battling an ankle sprain, and he didn’t exactly get sturdy pass protection during Los Angeles’ blowout loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 15, exiting early in favor of backup Taylor Heinicke. Denver, meanwhile, boasts the NFL’s second-best pass rush in terms of quarterback pressure rate (38.6%), and will be up against a front that also features a banged-up Zion Johnson on the interior.
• Will the Broncos find a rhythm on the ground? Not a single Denver player has more than 475 rushing yards on the season, and no one with at least 12 carries is averaging more than 4.5 yards per carry. In other words, offense has been a relative slog for Sean Payton’s group, even though the unit cracks the top 10 in points per game (24.0). Nix’s mobility at quarterback certainly helps, and he might be pressed to extend plays with his legs against a Chargers defense that’s tied for first in points allowed per contest.
• Which coach will rise to the occasion? This game has all the makings of a low-scoring, slug-it-out affair, with two top-10 defenses and two bottom-10 offenses, meaning it may very well come down to crunch-time and critical-down decision-making. Both Harbaugh and Payton are accomplished and well-respected leaders, and their game management could be the X factor if this one’s decided on the margins.

Prediction

The Chargers raced to a big lead in their first matchup with the Broncos back in October, but they’re in the middle of an untimely slump, dropping three of their last four. Denver, on the other hand, is on the upswing, looking to make it five in a row and clinch a playoff berth with a victory. L.A. should benefit slightly from hosting this one on a short week, and Ladd McConkey is reliable enough to give Herbert some downfield opportunities against an otherwise stingy secondary, but Nix is healthier on the other side, and Denver’s ball-control attack is capable of lifting the Broncos to a long-awaited postseason spot.

Pick: Broncos 23, Chargers 21

Bonus: SportsLine guru Matt Severance, who is on a 23-7 roll on Denver Broncos games, has released his best bets for the Week 16 Broncos vs. Chargers “Thursday Night Football” matchup. Severance is leaning Under on the total, but who is he backing to cover? Find out right here at SportsLine.