This is an opinion column.
The deeper we get into this college basketball season, the more frantic it gets.
We’re just days from March.
It’s time to get real.
More than a week removed from the biggest regular-season game this state’s ever seen and more than a week before No. 1 Auburn and now-No. 6 Alabama reunite in Neville Arena, it’s not unreasonable to run a status check on these two contenders.
What’s realistic for the Tigers and Crimson Tide as the regular season winds down and legacies come into play?
Both of these programs now have had a taste of the Final Four fountain. They’ve raised banners in their respective memories, so there’s only one mountain left to climb.
Who has the most realistic path to the real prize here?
It’s Auburn.
Screenshot this and email it to me forever if this ends like it did last March, but there’s not a team in the nation who’s done more than the Tigers.
They’re balanced. This is a team that can win in the paint and/or on the perimeter.
They’re veteran-based. Some of these guys have been school long enough to have a Ph.D.
They’re consistent.
They’ve been tested unlike any team in the nation.
And when the SEC is historically good, the Tigers could clinch the regular season title with a week to play.
Through 27 games, Auburn’s tied for the most Quad 1 games played using the NET rankings. It’s played 16. So has Kentucky and Illinois but the Tigers are 14-2 in those games while Kentucky is 8-8 and Illinois is 6-10. For context, UConn won last year’s national title after playing just 13 Quad 1 games before the conference and NCAA tournaments.
Auburn’s 14 Quad 1 wins are by far the most in the nation, too. Three are tied for second with nine including Oregon, Tennessee and … Alabama.
Duke, the No. 2 team in the polls and the NET rankings, is the blue-blooded top competition for Auburn on the national level. It’s played nine Quad 1 games to Auburn’s 16. That’s 54th most as it plows through the tumbleweed town of the once-great ACC.
The Blue Devils are 6-3 in those Quad 1 games — a mark that includes as 84-78 home-court win over Auburn but March and April memories aren’t made in Cameron Indoor Stadium.
The Crimson Tide is 9-5 in Quad 1 games with its worst losses coming to NET No. 26 Mississippi and No. 32 Oregon.
It is coming off a week that included a 110-98 loss at Missouri that waves a bright red flag for national title hopes. The defensive liability that Alabama overcame last year to make the Final Four isn’t quite so pronounced this season, but you’re not going to find many national champs who’ve spotted 110 points in losses en route to raising the banner.
Villanova in 2018 was the last national title team that allowed triple figures in a loss earlier in the season (101-93 to Butler).
As they sit today, Alabama is No. 3 in adjusted offensive efficiency in KenPom’s rankings but 47th on the defensive side. Looking back at the last 10 national champions, nobody ranked worse than 22nd in defensive efficiency (Baylor in 2022 when it was No. 2 on offense).
Auburn, on the other hand, is No. 1 offensively and 11th defensively. That fits in the mold of past national champions. So does its pace of play.
The Tigers are 128th in terms of adjusted tempo, according to KenPom. The average ranking of the past 10 national champs there is 199th. Only two have ranked inside the top 100 (Kansas in 2022 and North Carolina in 2017), while Virginia ranked dead last of 353 teams when it won it all in 2019.
Alabama’s No. 1 in adjusted tempo and possessions per game.
It makes for an entertaining style of basketball that’s turned Alabama from a sleepy afterthought into one of the most exciting teams in basketball. But it also speeds things up to a point turnovers and one bad shooting night can tank a whole season prematurely. See 2023 when the No. 1 overall seeded Tide was upset in the Sweet 16 after making just 3 of 27 shots from 3-point range against San Diego State in a 71-64 loss.
Alabama’s one of those teams with high ceilings and low floors. You don’t know what you’ll get, and while the Tide has seen more good than bad this season, the volatility within the consistency spectrum limits the odds of a run into April.
What makes this fun is the fact everything I just told you can be tossed out the window.
Last year, nobody was hotter than Auburn entering the NCAA tournament while Alabama limped into the tournament. It was the Tigers who coughed up a Round 1 furball while the Crimson Tide found the rhythm and overcame a No. 111 defensive efficiency to make the program’s first Final Four.
For every number and stat you toss out there, someone will find an exception.
But, over time, the trendlines hold more often than not.
That’s why Auburn’s not only has the best shot among those in-state to win the NCAA title, it makes the Tigers the best candidate of any one in the nation.
They’ve played the best.
Their only two losses came to the No. 2 and No. 4 teams in the NET rankings while they’ve beaten No. 3, No. 5 and No. 6.
They not only score at elite levels, but they defend as well as anyone in the nation.
No team in the history of college basketball in this state has been better positioned to win an NCAA men’s basketball national championship.
That’s certainly true in late February.
It’s now time to prove it in March and April.
Michael Casagrande is a reporter for the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @ByCasagrande or on Facebook.
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