Can Texas football win a national championship next year? These 4 stats have to improve

Posted by Admin January 18, 2025 Football

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With Arch Manning under center and returning defensive stars like Anthony Hill Jr., Colin Simmons and Michael Taaffe, the sportsbooks made Texas football the early favorite to win the national championship next season.

Coach Steve Sarkisian has elevated the Longhorns into regular contention, but their title charges have been stopped short in the semifinals of the College Football Playoff for two consecutive seasons.

What improvements do the Longhorns need to make to catapult themselves out of the pool of also-rans and onto the championship podium?

Here’s a look at four key areas where Texas must grow in 2025 to live up to its national title potential.

Texas football committed 1.62 turnovers per game in 2024

It would have required a significant statistical anomaly for the Longhorns to win the national championship while turning the ball over as frequently as they did in 2024.

Texas gave the ball up 1.62 times per game. Their season-long total of 26 turnovers was the fifth-most in the country and served to counteract a defense that was elite at taking the ball away.

Since 2006, national champions have averaged 1.08 turnovers per game. Within the same span, only Ohio State in 2014 and Clemson in 2016 have won the title while giving the ball away more often than Texas did this season.

Ohio State and Notre Dame — this season’s finalists — have each committed 15 turnovers in 15 games.

Texas allowed the most tackles for loss in college football

Few offenses were more explosive than Texas’ during the 2024 season. Likewise, no offense in the country was pushed backward more than the Longhorns.

Texas gave up 114 tackles for loss during its 16-game campaign. It should be pointed out that the Longhorns played more games than their neighbors on that list. Southern Miss, for example, allowed 112 tackles for loss in 12 games.

But the best teams have typically avoided racking up the TFLs despite the added games associated with a deep College Football Playoff run. The last three national champions have ranked no lower than 12th on the list. In the last five seasons, the only team to rank in the bottom half was LSU’s uber-explosive 2019 offense.

Texas football turned 63.8% of its red-zone entries into touchdowns

The Longhorns’ frustrations in the red zone didn’t quite reach the extent of their disastrous 2023 performance, but they still struggled in that area of the field relative to the other elites.

Texas’ 63.8% red-zone touchdown rate ranked 54th in the country. In games against Power Four opponents who finished with eight or more wins, the Longhorns scored touchdowns on just 46% of their red zone attempts. Memorably, Ohio State eliminated Texas from the CFP with a fourth-quarter stand inside its own 10-yard line in the Cotton Bowl.

Since 2016, only one team has won a national championship while finishing outside the top 30 in red-zone TD percentage. Ohio State ranks third in the nation in that category heading into Monday’s championship game, while Notre Dame sits 17th.

Texas football ranked 103rd nationally in punting efficiency

The Longhorns had a punting problem in 2024. They averaged 40.9 yards on their 51 punts, the second-worst mark in the 16-team SEC and the third-worst among College Football Playoff qualifiers.

Only SMU’s defense dealt with worse field position, on average than the Texas defense from the 12 CFP teams — a function of the Longhorns’ bad turnover habits and their poor special teams play.

Texas has already made a move in the transfer portal to address this issue, adding Jack Bouwmeester, who twice earned all-conference recognition while at Utah.

Reach Texas Insider David Eckert via email at deckert@gannett.com. Follow the American-Statesman on Facebook and X for more. Your subscription makes work like this possible. Get access to all of our best content with this tremendous offer.