A pair of Big 12 rivals square off this weekend as No. 6 BYU plays host to Kansas. Let’s check in with the new prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

BYU stayed undefeated after pulling out a late scoring drive against Utah last weekend, further entrenching its position atop the Big 12 standings as we draw nearer to playoff selection time.

Kansas is 2-4 in Big 12 play this season, but is coming off a big win against conference title hopeful Iowa State, and despite its struggles, still ranks top 15 nationally in rushing output.

What do the analytical models suggest will happen when the Cougars and Jayhawks face off in this Big 12 clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how BYU and Kansas compare in this Week 12 college football game.

As expected, the models are siding with the Cougars over the Jayhawks, but in a close game.

SP+ predicts BYU will defeat Kansas by a projected score of 33 to 25 and will win the game by an expected margin of 7.9 points in the process.

The model gives the Cougars a 69 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 292-263-8 against the spread with a 52.6 win percentage after going 30-19-1 (61%) last weekend.

BYU is a 2.5 point favorite against Kansas, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel set the total at 56.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for BYU at -142 and for Kansas at +118 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a big majority of bettors who are taking the Cougars to cover the narrow line against the Jayhawks, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

BYU is getting 71 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread to stay undefeated.

The other 29 percent of wagers project Kansas will either take down the Cougars in an upset, or will keep the final margin under a field goal in a loss.

BYU is top 20 nationally by averaging out 12.1 points better than its opponents when adding up the points in its wins and losses this season.

Kansas has edged out the competition by 0.9 points on average in 2024.

Those averages have drawn closer over the last three games.

BYU has been 5.7 points better than opponents in that time, while Kansas has averaged 11.7 points better than the competition over that span.

But those margins tell a different story when accounting for the venue.

Kansas has played 4 points worse than the opposition when playing on the road this season, while BYU has been 18 points better than opponents when playing at home.

Most other analytical models also favor the Cougars over the Jayhawks in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

BYU is the expected favorite at home, coming out ahead in a majority 60.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Kansas as the presumptive winner in the remaining 39.1 percent of sims.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

BYU is projected to be 4 points better than Kansas on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More … BYU vs. Kansas prediction: What the analytics say

BYU is first among Big 12 teams with a 64.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Cougars a win total projection of 11.4 games this season.

Kansas will have some work to do just getting bowl eligible.

The model forecasts the Jayhawks will win just 4.4 games in ‘24.

That amounts to a 10.5 percent chance to make a bowl game this year.

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 9:15 p.m. CT | 8:15 p.m. MT
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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