After BYU’s dominant win over West Virginia on Saturday night, BYU senior Fousseyni Traore said he believes BYU can make a run in March. “We’re gonna shock a lot of people,” Traore said. “I do believe that.”

Beloved national college basketball analyst Jon Rothstein says BYU possesses the “it” factor to make a run in March. Rothstein compared this BYU team to the 2020 BYU basketball team that didn’t get to play in the NCAA Tournament due to COVID-19.

BYU basketball is one of the hottest teams in the country. The Cougars have won six consecutive games and locked in a top-five spot in the Big 12 standings. 12 games ago, BYU was on the outside looking in at the projected NCAA Tournament field. After winning 10 out of the last 12, BYU is virtually a lock to play in the NCAA Tournament.

Now that we’re in March, let’s look at the numbers behind BYU’s seed probabilities and the Cougars’ chances to make a run in the NCAA Tournament.

With two games to go in the regular season, BYU is essentially a lock to go to the NCAA Tournament, but they are very close. TeamRankings gives BYU an 96.9% chance to make the tournament. By the numbers, 22 wins is the threshold for BYU to feel really good about getting an at-large bid.

The Cougars are sitting at 21 wins with two games remaining. Using KenPom game probabilities, BYU has an 89.1% chance to get to 22 wins before the Big 12 tournament.

At 22 wins, BYU would not only be a lock, but potentially a 7-seed or better.

BYU is starting to rack up quality wins and bolster its NCAA Tournament resume. BYU is off the bubble and playing for a better seed in the tournament. TeamRankings even gives BYU a slight chance to earn a top four seed in the NCAA Tournament. What would need to happen for BYU to get a 3-seed or a 4-seed? The Cougars would need to win out and win the Big 12 tournament.

BYU would have to overcome the odds to make that happen. KenPom gives BYU a 23.0% chance to win out in the regular season. On top of that, winning the Big 12 tournament would require three more wins against three of the best teams in the league. BYU’s chances to win the conference tournament at this point are 3.8%.

BYU’s most likely seed is an 7-seed as of Monday morning.

The Cougars are peaking at the right time and have the necessary ingredients to make a run in March. First and foremost, BYU would have to overcome history to make a run. Historically speaking, BYU has been a team that underperforms in the NCAA Tournament. Among teams that have never made the Final Four, BYU has the most NCAA Tournament appearances.

Here are BYU’s chances to advance to each round in the NCAA Tournament according to TeamRankings: