The NFL playoffs are an occasion where narratives dominate the discourse. From mainstream sports television shows to social media-based gambling content, most of the discussion around each game this weekend is largely going to center around narratives and popular opinion. With that said, much like the NBA playoffs have proven to us for years now, there are plenty of tried and true NFL postseason talking points that do align with what the data has borne out over the past quarter-century. One of those playoff trends that has consistently cashed over the years is fading the rookie quarterback who is making his first playoff start against a quarterback with playoff experience, and that’s part of why I’ll be laying the points with the Bills in this AFC Wild Card round matchup in Buffalo on Sunday. Per Evan Abrams, rookie quarterbacks making their first playoff start against a QB with playoff experience are just 19-37-1 against the spread (34%) since 2002. Furthermore, when those less experienced QBs play on the road, they are just 12-19-1 against the number. Couple that strong historical data with the fact that this is just massive step up in class for Denver in one of the toughest places to play across the league and I can’t get behind a wager with the Broncos at anything below double digits.

Denver has been a great story this season, but it’s important to remember that the Broncos had just 2 wins against playoff teams in the regular season, and 1 of those wins was over the Kansas City backups last Sunday. This was a team that got demolished by the Ravens earlier in the season and just lost important, playoff-like games against the Bengals and Chargers in recent weeks. Now, Bo Nix is taking on a Bills defense that is getting healthy at the right time, particularly in the secondary with the return of their starting safeties and All-Pro slot corner Taron Johnson. The Bills’ weakness as a defense is against the run, but that’s not at all what Denver does well, relying instead on the short and intermediate passing game to work its way methodically down the field. With that in mind, Sean McDermott’s scheme should actually be effective in limiting the scoring opportunities for Denver’s offense. On the other side, Josh Allen and most of the Buffalo offense got some much-needed rest a week ago, and this is a unit that has essentially been scoring 30+ points at will over the second half of the season, regardless of opponent. Since the Wild Card round expanded to 7 teams, five of the eight #7 seeds have lost by at least 12 points in this round. Additionally, favorites of at least 9 points in the Wild Card Round are 13-3 against the spread, which can only point me in the direction of the Bills here. Buffalo was just laying a full 10 points to a similarly power-rated Pittsburgh team in last season’s Wild Card matchup at home, so let’s take a bit of a discount on the Bills to lay the lumber this week.

Broncos vs Bills prediction: Bills -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 9.

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