Photo:

Tim Sudduth / Eclipse Sportswire

The best Breeders’ Cup race Friday and one of the best of the whole weekend at Del Mar is the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. This year’s edition brings the combination of top star power along with a good betting affair.

California runners are always formidable in this race, and trainer Bob Baffert has 30 percent of the expected Juvenile field. What makes this race interesting however, is that none of Baffert’s three entrants is likely to be among the top three choices in wagering.

East Avenue, Chancer McPatrick and Jonathan’s Way should be the three shortest-priced runners in the 2024 Juvenile as the three undefeated runners all won their final preps by 2 3/4 lengths or more.

Which shipper is the best of the bunch? I rank all 10 expected runners for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile from first to last.

1. East Avenue. He has been dazzling in two starts, and his win in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity stamps him as the clear horse to beat. Chancer McPatrick defeated Ferocious by a half-length. East Avenue handled the same rival by over five lengths. He has the speed to sit a good trip and already owns a win at the distance. The son of Medaglia d’Oro looks like a future star.

2. Jonathan’s Way. This colt was arguably the most impressive maiden winner of the meet at Saratoga when he showed maturity beyond his years to convincingly sweep by the field after breaking slowly. He displayed his natural speed breaking with the field when winning the Iroquois Stakes (G3) in his second start. Like East Avenue he looks like he has massive potential, and he has already proven he can pass horses, which could make a difference in a race with multiple frontrunners.

3. Gaming. The son of 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victor Game Winner is the best of Baffert’s three runners. He already defeated both his stablemates over this track in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). His speed figures are a little light compared with the top contenders in here, but there is a good chance that he will be able to take another step forward while stretching out in distance. Like Jonathan’s Way, he showed good versatility in both his wins.

4. Ferocious. This pricey colt is bred to be a good one and won like a potential superstar on debut. He ran a pair of decent seconds in subsequent efforts but has yet to take the next step forward. It is possible that the wet track moved him up on his debut, but there still appears to be more here. He has the right style to sit off the early pace while getting first run on the closers, which makes him a good play in exotic wagering.

5. Chancer McPatrick. It is hard to place this undefeated, dual Grade 1 winner this low, but something has to give among the top choices, and I feel he is the most vulnerable due to his deep-closing style over a track that does not play to his strength. He has been flying home late in one-turn races that all featured sub-46-second half-miles. He has the talent to win, but the circumstances are stacked against him, and the price will be short.

6. Citizen Bull. He improved in his first route try when capturing the American Pharoah (G1) in front-running fashion. That race did not appear to be the strongest of preps, and he will have plenty of company on the lead this time around.

7. Shin Believe. The Japan import actually was bred in Kentucky and cost $800,000, which means there are expectations that he should be a good one. He is a total unknown after breaking maiden by five lengths in impressive fashion in his one and only start. He may wind up being a very nice horse, but this is a tall task to ship to America for start no. 2.

8. Hill Road. This son of Quality Road also was bred in Kentucky but invades from Ireland. He won first out by five lengths going a left-handed mile. He ran poorly when he stepped into Group 1 competition in his second start. He is bred to handle dirt, but both his career starts have come on the turf. This is an awfully tough spot to be trying dirt for the first time.

9. Getaway Car. This speedy colt will add to the early pace. He started his career with promise but has regressed as distances have increased. He was no match for his stablemates Citizen Bull and Gaming, and he faces tougher challengers in this race.

10. Ecoro Azel. This son of Shancelot could not handle the step up to stakes competition in Japan and takes a further step up in class and distance in the Juvenile. He looks up against it in his first start in America.