The 3-year-olds already were thought to be better than their elders going into Labor Day weekend, and nothing we saw in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic on Saturday at Del Mar or the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) on Sunday at Saratoga changed that notion.

There is a long way to go between now and the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Nov. 2 at Del Mar, but as things stand now, the top three wagering choices figure to be 3-year-olds, with at least six of the top 10 also figuring to be sophomores.

Who the favorite will be remains to be seen, as multiple Group 1 winner City of Troy is as low as 5-2 in international markets and multiple Grade 1 winner Fierceness is as low as 3-1. 

If both make the gate healthy and presumed to have their best chances to run their best races, then this likely means tremendous value on Fierceness, who already is a winner on the West Coast with his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victory last year at Santa Anita.

We all know Fierceness’s foibles by now given a trio of disappointing runs between this time last year and his Kentucky Derby dud as the favorite. But the fact remains he is the fastest horse of this or any generation to run a classic distance on dirt this year. That makes him the most likely winner at this point, and any other favorite means value on Fierceness.

Of the international horses, I still don’t like City of Troy best. Forever Young is already proven multiple times on dirt and shipped to compete. Japan has won a pair of Breeders’ Cup races at Del Mar, and Forever Young just seems a better fit for this trip than does City of Troy.

Of the older horses, Highland Falls impressed the most with his Jockey Club Gold Cup win. I saw shades of Knicks Go, a fellow Brad Cox trainee who won the 2021 Classic at Del Mar.

Normally, most of these contenders would have a final prep between now and the Classic, but that’s not the case this year. Of the top contenders on my fair-odds list, only Muth figures to help his stock with another run. The Shared Belief Stakes winner is expected for the California Crown (G1) at Santa Anita.

One last note on these fair odds. It is priced as if these 24, and only these 24, horses are the ones in the gate. Which is another way of asking, “Am I missing anyone?” I don’t really know that St. Louis Derby winner E J Won the Cup is a top 24 Classic contender, but my son is named EJ so it felt right to include him for now.