A long and arduous season of harness racing nears its end in the approach of the Breeders Crown, hosted this year at the Meadowlands in East Rutherford, N.J.

The travelling roadshow of year-end championships features a swarth of eliminations to determine the finalists for the nearly $7-million weekend on Friday and next Saturday.

The two-year-old fields are set after the Friday card. Saturday the fields for the three-year-old and open divisions take shape.

By this point in the season, much of the smoke has risen, the cream has separated from the corn, etc. Most of the 12 divisions of Standardbreds have their ruling class, who exert such an iron fist of speed, grit and  stamina imposing dominance on their peers. But the harness racing season is long, 12 months out of a year if you can believe it, so even the most ironclad of bulwarks can show up short to the eliminations. 

Saturday’s card has prominent favorites abound, opening bettors to the puzzle of either submitting to these horses’ ability or finding that they will race from their weak point and create opportunities for others. Here are some outsiders in the betting ahead of Saturday’s eliminations worth considering for your win bets, exacta bets, trifecta bets… any bets, really. Just not place or show bets. C’mon now.

Sig Sauer is a “no-duh” favorite inside of this race, given few trotters have ever parked a mile through a 53.4-second half and proceeded to win in 1:49.3; the thought of going a mile like that gives a horse like Muscles Yankee nervous tremors. And while “bouncing” as a horse racing phenomenon is more prevalent in the Thoroughbred space than the Standardbred, harness horses can still overexert in spots that can leave them short in their next start. And especially coming off a gargantuan race at The Red Mile like Sig Sauer is, he may not show the same jubilance he had in winning the last jewel of trotting’s triple crown.

The hot price inside of this race seems like Security Protected, a juicy 15-1 on the morning line. He does not possess the same flashy miles that Sig Sauer does or even that Amazing Catch does in this race, nor does he have the same prestige as a horse like T C I, but this Marcus Melander-trained son of Father Patrick has steadily improved all season long and has put forth some of his best miles in just his last three starts.

He menaced the Canadian talent Highland Kismet in the Canadian Trotting Classic elimination, braved a first-over trip in that final and went as even a mile as you can expect from an awful post in the Kentucky Futurity. Now he lands a prime inside draw with Scott Zeron in the bike off what otherwise is a tightening mile for the Breeders Crown.

He has a shot to win here, but he absolutely is one to wheel in the exotics to pump some extra value into the payoff since most eyes will be on the name-brand trotters.

Race 3: Breeders Crown elimination 3-year-old colt pace no. 1, post time 7:05 p.m. EDT

Look, Captain Albano is a nice horse. I like him! He’s always had an explosive rush whenever lying in wait with a target in sight, but everyone knows this. And in a game like pari-mutuel betting, everyone knowing something means less for you or I, but I nonetheless respect his chances in this race and still think he has a strong chance to win.

However, I am intrigued by the Travis Alexander trainee drawn all the way outside, Howlenthehills. At first when scoping this card, I brushed this race of any opportunity completely, but I came back to this guy just because he’s in a race where the bulk of the money will be placed on the inside three horses. This American Ideal gelding is fast off the car; he cleared the lead from post 8 at Yonkers in the New York Sires Stakes final back on Sept. 7. In a spot like this, he has to go forward and appears more than capable of going forward.

So the question then in finding a fair price on him is feeling what his speed threshold might be, because the inside three on their best day can uncork a 1:48 mile while Howlenthehills has yet to breach sub-1:50. I don’t think he’s incapable of a fast mile, though, given he’s entering off a 1:50.3 effort over a wet track at Plainridge, a five-eighths mile surface not necessarily known for being super speedy. This gelding has gotten better with each start, is on second-time Lasix and could be brewing a coming-out mile to the tune of 8-1 on the morning line, maybe better. If you get 9-1 odds on him to win, he’s worth a bet for sure. But I would be shocked if he didn’t make the final.

Race 7: Breeders Crown elimination 3-year-old filly trot no. 2, post time 8:40 p.m. EDT

This feels like a must-play race because it could possess a shallow favorite. No disrespect to R Melina, she was game as could be in winning the Filly Futurity and has out-earned her peers on the racetrack this season. And no disrespect to trainer John Butenschoen either: he says some of my favorite curse words in his post-race interviews. But alas, betting is not a game of respect, it is a game of trying to get other people’s money when they are wrong. It’s a vicious vocation.

The trouble with this race though is that it’s stacked with question marks. Hambletonian Oaks winner Warrawee Michelle got strung to her demise in the Filly Futurity, so how does she come back into this race? Soiree Hanover was a favorite to win the Hambletonian Oaks last season and cannot of late show any consistency to trust. Allegiant is fast, but is she post 9 fast? I mean, maybe. And all three of those horses on the morning line are the next choices to R Melina, who is the 8-5 chalk on the page. 

Even if R Melina shows up with the same fervor she had at The Red Mile, the amount of speed present to the outside just opens this race to chaos.

Maybe then the horse that makes the most sense to try at a price is Emoji Hanover? She’s not the top string of the Luc Blais trotting-filly team (that would be Drawn Impression in the first elimination), but she’s at least fresh and returning to a track she’s raced well over off good miles in the Elegantimage and a textbook sneaky Blais qualifier on Oct. 11 – a slow time, but a good-enough mile to get her ready for a race like this.

She has the right draw to work a variety of trips into the race, but this is a real class test for her. All season long, she has clearly been a second fiddle in the filly orchestra, though her Grand Circuit appearances have been limited. She also uncorked a wicked final quarter over this track to just miss qualifying for the Hambletonian Oaks final, so there are parallel universes out there where maybe she’s the favorite. We may just be lucky enough to be in the one where she still gets slept on. We’ll see.

Race 9: Breeders Crown eliminations 3-year-old colt trot no. 2, post time 9:42 p.m. EDT

Karl. Karl! Karl? 

Karl. 

But hear me out: Vic Zelenskyy? 

That’s right, this elimination pins one-name wonder Karl (and Canadian freak Highland Kismet) against our favorite Ukrainian president and first son from trotting wonder Mission Brief. Marcus Melander has been on record noting Vic Zelenskyy can be a quirky guy, which is true – before becoming president, namesake Volodymyr Zelenskyy was a comedian if you can believe it. And this guy can trot when he trots. Sure, he’s gone fast miles over a fast track in Lexington, but this is his proving ground to show that it’s not a one-dimensional type of speed. And by being drawn against Karl, Highland Kismet and even Tony Adams S, maybe you can get an 8-1 or 9-1 price on him. He’s only worth it in that ballpark, though, because he is against Karl.

Coverage of the Breeders Crown at Horse Racing Nation appears in part through a marketing relationship with The Meadowlands and the Hambletonian Society.