Even though the Buffalo Bills have a better record than the Baltimore Ravens, they’re the underdogs in this matchup. The Bills are home underdogs for the first time in a long time, which means they could head into this game with a chip on their shoulder.

Excluding a Week 18 defeat with backups in for most of the contest, the Bills have only lost one game since Week 6, a road matchup with the Los Angeles Rams.

Nonetheless, oddsmakers undoubtedly factored in the Bills’ 35-10 road loss to the Ravens in Week 4.

With a couple of additions and returning players for the Bills, Hanford and O’Donnell like Buffalo to avenge its regular-season loss to Baltimore.

Wes: Let’s start with what we saw this year: The Ravens beat the Bills in Baltimore 35-10 back in Week 4. Derrick Henry ran for 199 yards in that game. The Ravens brought in Henry for games like that and, more importantly, this playoff game. Is that enough to warrant 1.5 points on the road against a Bills team that lost only one meaningful game in its last 12?

Ian: While I understand it, I’m still shocked to see Buffalo as an underdog in a home playoff game. That hasn’t happened to the Bills since 1967. The Bills certainly left a lot to be desired in the Week 4 blowout, and this is a Ravens team that has won five straight games by at least 14 points, but I find it hard to believe Josh Allen won’t use that lopsided loss as extra motivation this time around. They’ll need to make some adjustments, though, namely against Derrick Henry. How do you see them doing that?

Wes: Keep him off the field. Keep Lamar off the field. The Bills were second-best this season in fourth-down conversion rate. Be aggressive in the right spots. Don’t just settle for field position or three points when you have momentum on your side against a Ravens offense that produced the most 40-plus-yard passing plays this season. Lamar’s 8.8 yards per attempt was the highest in the league for starting QBs. Keep them off the field as much as possible. Wait, why are we both on the Bills if we know all this?

Ian: Keeping them off the field is really the only guaranteed antidote against a duo as dynamic as those two. But I will note that Buffalo is in a better position this time around with Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano in the fold. Neither played in the previous game and both should go a long way in their attempts to slow down the Ravens’ run game. Milano especially should factor into keeping tabs on Lamar getting out of the pocket as well. I hear you on logic favoring the Ravens, but for me the gut instinct is simply stronger here. I can’t believe a player as good as Josh Allen is going to strike out again, but he’s going to need some help. We saw Ty Johnson emerge last week against Denver. Who makes a big play outside of Allen to push them over the top this week?

Wes: You know my answer here. Amari Cooper. The guy has too much talent to ignore when on the field. He’s still seeing the same snap percentage despite some lower target numbers. In a game where a broken play can make the difference, I’m getting behind the guy they traded a third-round pick for just a couple months ago (and his +450 Anytime TD number). What about you?

Ian: Cooper is a good choice, and my guess is that the Ravens expect him to be more of an emphasis, so I’m going to go with Khalil Shakir. Shakir caught six passes against Denver, 76 passes in the regular season and always seems to be open. Nothing about his game is flashy, but his ability to run after the catch can serve as an extension of the run game in a sense when Buffalo isn’t likely to get James Cook going in a big way against a tough Ravens run D.

Wes: Yeah, it’s more about the Bills righting the wrongs from their first meeting with Baltimore than anything the Ravens can do. And hey, in the worst-case scenario, we’re getting points. You noted the postseason number already, and the Bills haven’t been home ‘dogs in any game since the 2020 season. So we got that going for us, which is nice.

Ian: Righting wrongs and the fact that it feels like now or never in Buffalo with missed opportunities in the past and Allen playing the best ball of his career. This has all the makings of a classic, but it’s impossible for me to pass up the points.

ATS Consensus: Bills +1.5

Score Prediction: Bills 31, Ravens 28

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or call or text the TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).

21+. NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL/TN only. In partnership with Meadows Racetrack & Casino. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.