The Portland Trail Blazers are still in the running for a wild card spot in the prestigious 2024 Emirates NBA Cup. After the Blazers defeated the Sacramento Kings, 115-106, on Friday, Portland’s record stands at 2-1 heading into the final game of Group Play this week in West Group A.

If you don’t want to see how the sausage is made, and you are just seeking a basic understanding of the scenarios that need to happen for the Blazers to advance to the Knockout Rounds, you can probably get away with just reading two sections from this article: “So What Does This All Mean for the Blazers?” and “So Essentially…”

If you didn’t scroll far down following the previous paragraph, here’s a brief reminder of the NBA Cup rules before diving into the qualification scenarios for Portland in this year’s standings:

• Western Conference teams are divided into three groups, while Eastern Conference teams are also divided into three groups, forming six total groups of five for NBA Cup Group Play.
• Teams play every opponent in their group once in a round-robin style; then the top team from each group qualifies for the single-game elimination Knockout Rounds, which consist of a quarterfinals, semifinals and finals.
• Along with the top six teams from Group Play, one team from each conference will qualify for a wild card spot in the Knockout Rounds. From each conference, the team with the best record through Group Play that didn’t win its group will get the wild card invitation. If there are teams from different groups with identical records, then a point-differential tiebreaker between the two teams determines who gets the spot.

Now to the current standings and Group Play scenarios in the West.

West Group A

The Houston Rockets clinched the top spot in Portland’s West Group A with a Tuesday overtime win over the Minnesota Timberwolves, putting Houston at 3-0.

Minnesota and Sacramento were both eliminated this past week, while the Blazers (2-1) and LA Clippers (1-2) remain alive in the wild card hunt.

The Blazers play the Clippers Tuesday in their final Group Play game. If the Blazers win that game, they will clinch the second spot in West Group A with a 3-1 record, giving them a chance at the Knockout Rounds as a wild card. If they lose, the Clippers take the second spot by posting an identical 2-2 record but winning the head-to-head matchup. So a loss means the NBA Cup dream is over for Portland.

A win means Portland will likely have to duke it out with one or multiple 3-1 teams from other West groups in the point-differential tiebreaker (hang with me).

West Group B

West Group B has the most to sort out heading into Tuesday. No team has clinched the top spot yet, as the San Antonio Spurs, Phoenix Suns and Oklahoma City Thunder all have 2-1 records (the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Lakers were eliminated).

On Tuesday, the Thunder plays the Jazz, while the Spurs play the Suns. If the Spurs win, they clinch the top spot with a 3-1 record since they beat OKC earlier in Group Play. If the Thunder wins and the Spurs lose, then the Thunder clinches the top spot because it beat the Suns earlier. IF the Thunder loses and the Suns win, then the Suns take the top spot.

West Group C

The Golden State Warriors clinched the top spot in West Group C with a 3-0 record thus far. The only other team in this group that could threaten Portland in a wild card tiebreaker scenario is the 2-1 Dallas Mavericks. The Mavs play the 1-2 Memphis Grizzlies Tuesday to try to clinch that second spot in the group and a 3-1 record. If they lose, then the second spot is up for grabs between the Grizzlies and Denver Nuggets, who could each be 2-2 by the end of Tuesday night. But none of that matters if the Blazers are 3-1.

So What Does This All Mean for the Blazers?

Or to put that question a slightly different way, as a Blazers fan, what teams should you be rooting for Tuesday in hopes of Portland qualifying for the wild card?

• First and foremost, the Blazers need to beat the Clippers.
• If the Blazers beat the Clippers, the Grizzlies beat the Mavs, and the Jazz upset the Thunder, the Blazers ARE IN the Knockout Rounds as the only West runner-up in Group Play with a 3-1 record. This is the most straight-forward route to the next round.
• If that nice and simple scenario doesn’t play out, then things get real dicey for that West wild card spot by heading to the point-differential tiebreaker.
• Currently, the Blazers are low in the point-differential standings at minus-five with one game left to play (the 116-88 loss to Houston on Nov. 22 is a major weight holding the Blazers down).
• In West Group C, the Mavericks currently possess a massive lead over the Western Conference field in point differential with a plus-41. So if Dallas wins Tuesday, unless the Blazers put a historic beatdown on the Clippers, the Mavericks in all likelihood are claiming that wild card spot. The Blazers — and basically the other teams on the wild card bubble — NEED the Mavericks to lose to the Grizzlies.
• In West Group B, the Spurs own a point differential of plus-14, the Suns own a point differential of plus-18, and the Thunder owns a point differential of plus-19. If you’re the Blazers, above all, you’re hoping for an OKC loss — because either Phoenix or San Antonio is knocking the other out. If OKC wins and San Antonio wins, the Spurs will take the top spot and OKC will join the 3-1 tiebreaker pool for the wild card spot. OKC’s plus-19 margin won’t be as impossible for the Blazers to overcome as a plus-41 margin, but Portland overcoming that is still highly unlikely. If OKC wins and Phoenix wins, the Thunder will take the top spot and the Suns will join the 3-1 tiebreaker pool. In regards to the Blazers, the story with Phoenix’s plus-18 point-differential margin is similar to that of OKC’s number. It’ll be difficult to overcome, but the least difficult of the three teams that could face Portland in the tiebreaker.

SO ESSENTIALLY…

Assuming the Blazers beat the Clippers, Portland needs the Grizzlies to beat the Mavericks and the Jazz to upset the Thunder to advance. If the Mavericks and/or the Thunder win, the Blazers will need to beat the Clippers while making up massive ground in the point-differential tiebreaker on Tuesday to claim that wild card spot.