It’s Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season, and the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens in a pivotal AFC North showdown.

With Russell Wilson now under center for the Steelers, his recent performances have sparked interest in both his passing props and those of his top target, George Pickens.

Wilson has shown flashes of his vintage form while Pickens has been a consistent deep threat.

If you can’t tell, I’m heavy on Pittsburgh with belief in Russ having Mike Tomlin as one of the best coaches in NFL history. These are the best player props for Week 11 to correlate.

Week 11 Prediction: Russell Wilson 25+ completed passes (+350)

This is an intriguing wager given the matchup dynamics.

The Ravens’ pass defense has been a glaring weakness all season, 32nd in passing yards allowed (338 per game on the road) and 32nd in completions allowed per game.

Wilson, while only reaching 20 completions as his season-high through three starts, is poised for a breakout in this area.

With running back Najee Harris questionable while facing the league’s best rushing defense, the Steelers may rely more on Wilson’s arm to move the ball.

Even if Harris plays, both he and Jaylen Warren have been used frequently in the passing game, which could lead to more short completions that help Wilson rack up his total.

Wilson has already shown his ability to spread the ball around, completing passes to nine different targets in each of his last two games.

Against a Ravens defense that is hemorrhaging completions at an alarming rate, Wilson will likely have ample opportunities.

In four of their five road games, quarterbacks like Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield, and Jameis Winston have each completed at least 27 passes, exploiting Baltimore’s porous secondary.

Given Baltimore’s defensive struggles and Pittsburgh’s potential shift toward a pass-heavy game plan, Wilson hitting 25+ completions at +350 offers strong value.

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Week 11 Prediction: Russell Wilson 2+ passing touchdowns (+105)

Baltimore has surrendered 14 passing touchdowns in road games this season, the most in the NFL, including 6  in their last two road trips.

This defensive weakness aligns perfectly with Wilson’s recent form, as he has thrown for 6 touchdowns in his three starts, showing that he’s acclimating well to the Steelers offense.

In particular, Wilson has developed strong chemistry with wide receiver George Pickens, who has emerged as a go-to deep threat.

Pickens’ ability to stretch the field complements Wilson’s renowned deep-ball accuracy, which has already resulted in several big plays.

Wilson’s ability to spread the ball also helps his case for hitting this total, as evidenced by his 6 touchdowns from five different receivers.

With Baltimore’s defense giving up touchdowns at a high rate (76% of their touchdowns allowed have come through the air), Wilson is well-positioned to capitalize.

Given that the Steelers are underdogs in this matchup (+3), there’s also the potential for Pittsburgh to be playing from behind, which could lead to more passing opportunities for Wilson.

Week 11 Prediction: George Pickens 70+ receiving yards (-105)

Since Wilson took over as the Steelers’ starting quarterback, George Pickens has become his primary deep threat.

Pickens’ ability to stretch the field has been highlighted by his 276 receiving yards with Wilson behind center.

Pickens is in a position to keep that success going facing a Ravens secondary that has allowed all five road wide receivers to top at least 95 receiving yards.

In addition to the base bet, this is a great spot for a ladder bet on Pickens’ yardage.

Ladder Breakdown:

• 70+ yards (-105): This is a relatively safe bet given Pickens’ role as the primary deep threat and the Ravens’ struggles against big plays.
• 80+ yards (+140): Given Baltimore’s inability to contain receivers on the road, this tier offers solid value for a player like Pickens who can break off big gains.
• 90+ yards (+200): With Wilson likely to air it out and Pickens’ ability to make contested catches downfield, this tier becomes very achievable.
• 100+ yards (+240): In a game where Pittsburgh may need to rely on its passing attack, Pickens hitting triple digits is well within reach.