Through eight games, BYU is 8-0 and 5-0 in Big 12 play. The Cougars have everything to play for as the calendar turns to November. Tuesday is an important day for BYU – the College Football Playoff committee will unveil the first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2024 season. When the rankings are released, BYU will be ranked in the CFP rankings for the first time since 2021. Today, we’re breaking down the best-case and worst-case scenario for the College Football Playoff rankings.

Let’s address the elephant in the room – let’s call it the “Gary Barta effect”. Most BYU fans have bad memories of the College Football Playoff committee – and for good reason. It was in 2020 when BYU was 9-0 and ranked no. 8 in the AP poll. The first CFP rankings came out and the Cougars dropped all the way down to no. 14. The committee hated BYU’s strength of schedule that season and BYU was punished in the rankings as a result. Gary Barta, the leader of the committee that season, was asked about BYU dropping in the rankings. Barta said the committee “respected” BYU, but dinged them for their strength of schedule. No matter what BYU did that season, the committee would not put them in the top 12. The “Gary Barta effect” is the idea that no matter what BYU does right, the committee will not respect BYU’s resume.

Because of 2020, most BYU fans forget that in 2021, the committee was more favorable towards BYU than the AP poll. The Cougars were ranked no. 17 in the AP poll at the time and the committee ranked the Cougars two spots ahead at no. 15. Why was the committee more favorable towards BYU that season? Because BYU had some quality wins over P5 teams.

This year, BYU’s resume is much better than it’s ever been for the first CFP rankings. The “Gary Barta effect” is still possible, but it’s not a foregone conclusion like it was in 2020.

The worst-case scenario for BYU is not nearly as bad as it could have been before last Saturday’s games. On Saturday, Texas A&M, Clemson, Iowa State, and Pitt lost. Those four teams were threats to BYU in the rankings. Since all of them lost, BYU’s floor is much higher than it would have been a week ago.

In Sunday’s AP poll, BYU was ranked no. 9 and was a consensus top-10 team. With only five undefeated teams remaining, there’s only so low BYU can drop. That’s good news for BYU.

Historically, the committee has always favored P4/P5 teams. This is the first time BYU will have the benefit of being in a P4 conference. It’s unclear, however, how this year’s committee is going to view the Big 12 compared to the Big Ten and the SEC. How will the committee view undefeated BYU compared to one-loss Tennessee, for example? That remains to be seen.

Still, using the AP poll, who are the candidates to leapfrog BYU? Just behind BYU in the AP poll is Notre Dame (10), Alabama (11), Boise State (12), SMU (13), LSU (14), Texas A&M (15), Ole Miss (16), and Iowa State (17).

Notre Dame is a candidate, sure. Although the Fighting Irish had one of the worst losses in the country at home against NIU. Behind the Fighting Irish, you run into the two-loss SEC teams. It’s safe to expect the committee to be biased towards the SEC, but in the opinion of this author, it’s very unlikely that the committee will rank a two-loss SEC team ahead of an undefeated Big 12 team at this point. If they do, they run the risk of devaluing the results of the regular season.

Boise State will not leapfrog BYU. The committee has never treated G5 teams kindly. And SMU? BYU has a head-to-head win over SMU.

In the worst-case scenario, we think BYU will still be a top 10 team or very close to it. Maybe Notre Dame leapfrogs the Cougars and maybe Alabama’s win over Georgia will catapult the Crimson Tide, but we imagine BYU will be right around the top 10 even in the worst-case scenario.

Worst-Case Scenario: No. 11

In the opinion of this author, there is more upside than downside for BYU compared to the AP poll. Why? Because side-by-side, BYU’s resume stacks up really well against the teams ranked just ahead of them in the AP poll.

Let’s start with Indiana. The Hoosiers have dominated and the committee might reward them for that, but Indiana’s resume stinks. Indiana’s strength of schedule ranks 103rd and they haven’t played a single team that is receiving votes in the AP poll. It wouldn’t be too shocking if BYU leapfrogs Indiana.

What about one-loss teams Texas and Penn State? Their only losses came to elite teams, but they lack signature wins. Texas’ best win is Vanderbilt and Penn State doesn’t have a top-25 win. The best win for the Nittany Lions might be against Illinois? Or maybe Wisconsin?

And Tennessee? The Vols have a good win against Alabama, but a win over Alabama in 2024 doesn’t mean what it used to mean. Tennessee lost to a very mediocre Arkansas team earlier in the season. Perhaps the committee dings them for that loss.

If this committee is able to remove themselves from the SEC and Big Ten bias that plagues the AP poll (that’s probably asking too much), there’s a world where BYU could be ranked ahead of one or two of those one-loss teams.

Last year, the committee really valued the undefeated P5 teams. There were five undefeated P5 teams going into the first ranking last season, and they were the top five teams in the first CFP rankings. At least to some degree, the committee has shown in the past that they value the zero in loss column.

Miami has been ranked well ahead of BYU the entire season. Is that warranted? The Hurricanes don’t have a ranked win and they have had too many close calls to count. BYU has two wins that are better than any of Miami’s wins. It might seem far fetched based on the AP poll, but it’s not impossible since the committee’s rankings should remove early season bias.

In the very best-case scenario, we believe BYU could be knocking on the door of the top five.

Best-Case Scenario: No. 6