It’s a real shame Sir Gino doesn’t run in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury, somewhat obliterating the ‘Super’ out of ‘Super Saturday’, while a head-scratching Denman Chase sees Bravemansgame, winless from his last 10 starts, marked up as the 9/4 favourite.
The problem is very little appeals against him at the prices and, though something has to win it, I’m happy to leave the graded contests alone and concentrate on the handicaps.
A total of 18 line up for the William Hill Hurdle, the old Betfair, Schweppes, Tote Gold Trophy, depending on your vintage, but it looks a different race this year with no Irish runners and no novices lining up.
The Irish have a bad record in the race anyway and the emergence of the Dublin Racing Festival hasn’t helped encourage their participation, while the lack of novices, usually such a high-profile angle into this race, is largely down to new qualifying criteria.
While the likes of My Tent Or Yours, Ballyandy and Kalashnikov all won this race as novices on their fourth hurdling start, novices now need to have already had four runs over hurdles to qualify and that extra race has reduced their participation to nil.
The crazy thing is the second favourite, Joyeuse, who quite obviously has a big chance, has only had three hurdling starts, but she qualifies after a win at Taunton last season means she’s not a novice, just an unexposed horse.
Nicky Henderson looks to have saved her for this and her good effort behind Wodhooh at Cheltenham in December was boosted by the third, Take No Chances, who won a Grade 2 at Ascot last month, so it’s little wonder she has emerged as a 5/1 chance given horses with similar profiles are barred from running.
She could well win, but any remaining juice in her price went on Friday and I would rather side with the slightly more experienced but still progressive FAVOUR AND FORTUNE who also looks to have been laid out for the race.
Alan King’s horse was a novice last season, finishing sixth in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’, but he improved on that form when winning the Scottish Champion Hurdle from a mark of 138 at Ayr in April, travelling well off a good pace in a big field.
That form worked out really well and it marked him out as a horse to follow in the big handicap hurdles this term, an early-season setback ruling him out of the Greatwood at Cheltenham.
In hindsight (yes, I backed him) he probably needed his run first time back at Ascot just before Christmas, where he was ridden in the rear like a horse who had had some unexpected time off while the race-fit horses contested a hot pace on the front end.
He could never get into it, but wasn’t given a hard time trying to catch the leaders and it was a perfectly respectable effort with another day in mind.
This could be that day, as he promises to come on a bundle for the Ascot run considering his early-season setback and tracking a good pace on a galloping track like Newbury looks sure to play to his strengths.
In an ideal world he might want slightly better ground, but he looks pretty versatile on that score to me and much more importantly he’s going to be fit and firing second start back at his local course from a mark just 2lb higher than that he won off in Scotland.
The Verdict: Back FAVOUR AND FORTUNE in the 3.35 Newbury
I couldn’t find anything at Warwick so the one other bet I’m having is also at Newbury in the William Hill Top Price Guarantee Handicap Hurdle over three miles where KRUGER PARK appeals at 8/1 for Paul Nicholls.
Nicholls is not going through the gears like he can at the moment but this Newbury card has been kind to him over the years and it might be again thanks to this horse who has more to offer from his current mark of 119.
He bolted up at this track 11 months ago from a much lower rating when he was a novice in handicaps but he looks to have progressed again judging by his good third at Uttoxeter in December.
Freddie Gingell hit the front three out that day and his horse traded at 1.32 in-running on Betfair, but he went too soon and after being keen early in the contest he paid for those exertions when he was overhauled late on.
Still, it was a big step forward from his season return at Newton Abbot and if he travels like he did the last time he came to Newbury he’ll have a chance from his low weight in a competitive race.
The Verdict: Back KRUGER PARK in the 1.50 Newbury
Preview posted at 1500 GMT on 07/02/25
