A week with nothing more than a pair of ATP 250s on the schedule doesn’t normally generate a ton of interest. However, this is certainly not a normal week. There are still three spots available at the Nitto ATP Finals—which begin next Sunday—with four contenders still alive. Three of those four have signed up for either Belgrade or Metz. Novak Djokovic is on vacation, but Casper Ruud, Alex de Minaur, and Andrey Rublev are all playing. And they are playing for one reason and one reason only. 
 
Let’s break down two very important 250 tournaments. 
 
Belgrade Open 

Where: Belgrade, Serbia 
Surface: Indoor hard 
Points: 250 
Prize money: 579,320 Euros 

Top seed: Alex de Minaur 
Defending champion: None (inaugural event) 

Draw analysis: De Minaur put himself in position to qualify for Turin by reaching the Paris quarterfinals, passing Rublev for No. 8 in the race. The Aussie could have clinched a year-end championship berth with one more win over Holger Rune in the quarters, in which case he definitely would have withdrawn from Belgrade. However, a three-set loss means there is still more work to do. In order to qualify, De Minaur must equal or better Rublev’s result in Metz or reach the Belgrade final and have Ruud lose prior to the Metz semifinals. 

There is plenty of good news for the world No. 10, and not just because of his success in Paris. The Belgrade draw is much weaker than that of Metz, especially now that No. 2 seed Tommy Paul has withdrawn. Other players with first-round byes are Francisco Cerundolo, Jiri Lehecka, and Nuno Borges; none of them are in particularly good form. If De Minaur can get past Stan Wawrinka in round two and Jerry Shang in the quarterfinals, the top seed should be on his way to Turin. 

Hot: Alex de Minaur, Jerry Shang 

Cold: Hamad Medjedovic, Dusan Lajovic, Laslo Djere 

Quarterfinal predictions: Alex de Minaur over Jerry Shang, Roman Safiullin over Brandon Nakashima, Tomas Martin Etcheverry over Alexandre Muller, and Miomir Kecmanovic over Nuno Borges 
 
Semifinals: De Minaur over Safiullin and Etcheverry over Kecmanovic 

Final: Etcheverry over De Minaur 

Moselle Open 

Where: Metz, France 
Surface: Indoor hard 
Points: 250 
Prize money: 579,320 Euros 

Top seed: Andrey Rublev 
Defending champion: Ugo Humbert 

Draw analysis: At No. 7 in the race behind Djokovic but ahead of De Minaur and Rublev, Ruud is in good shape—for the time being. The Norwegian will clinch a place in the Nitto ATP Finals simply by advancing to the semifinals in Metz, regardless of anyone else’s result. He will also qualify if either De Minaur or Rublev loses prior to his respective final. Rublev has three pathways, of which he requires just one: 1) better De Minaur’s result; 2) win the Metz title; 3) reach the Metz final and have Ruud lose his opening match. 

Rublev should coast through his first two matches this week before possibly facing either Grigor Dimitrov or Ugo Humbert in the semifinals. Those are difficult matchups on paper, but Dimitrov was recently eliminated from Turin contention and Humbert will probably withdraw after reaching the Paris final. Like the case of Dimitrov, it’s also a mystery why Rune is still in the Metz field since he was also eliminated with his loss to Alexander Zverev in the Paris semis. As for Ruud, he has been in terrible form this fall and could meet Antwerp champion Roberto Bautista Agut in round two. That spells trouble. 

Hot: Holger Rune, Ugo Humbert, Roberto Bautista Agut, Bu Yunchaokete 

Cold: Casper Ruud, Jan-Lennard Struff, Adrian Mannarino, Richard Gasquet 

Quarterfinal predictions: Andrey Rublev over Corentin Moutet, Cameron Norrie over Zizou Bergs, Alex Michelsen over Adrian Mannarino, and Roberto Bautista Agut over Arthur Rinderknech 
 
Semifinals: Rublev over Norrie and Bautista Agut over Michelsen 

Final: Bautista Agut over Rublev