Quarterfinal spots will start being handed out in Beijing on Saturday, when Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev headline the order of play. Sinner awaits Roman Safiullin in round two, while Medvedev meets Adrian Mannarino.

(1) Jannik Sinner vs. (LL) Roman Safiullin

The China Open touched off Sinner’s amazing season-ending run in 2023–one that has never stopped, in fact. He lifted the Beijing trophy and won 20 of his last 22 matches in 2023, complete with three victories over Novak Djokovic and a Davis Cup triumph for Italy. Sinner is now 56-5 this year with two Grand Slam titles at the Australian Open and U.S. Open. The world No. 1’s Beijing title defense got off to a bit of a rocky start on Thursday, but he managed to get past Nicolas Jarry 4-6, 6-3, 6-1.

Up next for Sinner on Saturday is a third meeting with Safiullin, who lost 7-6(6), 6-3 at the 2022 ATP Cup and 6-4, 3-6, 6-2, 6-2 in the 2023 Wimbledon quarterfinals. This one probably won’t be as competitive as either of those first two encounters. Not only did Sinner get a wakeup call from Jarry, but Safiullin also isn’t in great form. The 69th-raked Russian is a dreadful 14-21 at the ATP level in 2024 and needed a lucky-loser spot in the Beijing main draw after falling to Roberto Bautista Agut in qualifying. Safiullin beat a struggling Stan Wawrinka on Friday, but Sinner is obviously a whole different beast.

Pick: Sinner in 2

Adrian Mannarino vs. (3) Daniil Medvedev

RPMs on the tennis ball will be at a bare minimum when Medvedev and Mannarino collide for the eighth time in their careers on Saturday. Surprisingly, Mannarino leads the head-to-head series 4-3. However, three of the Frenchman’s four victories have come on grass, Medvedev has won three of their last four overall, and the Russian dominated their most recent hard-court contest 6-2, 6-1 at the 2019 Miami Masters.

Mannarino is finally winning matches again; he advanced one round at the U.S. Open, reached the Chengdu quarterfinals last week, and beat Lorenzo Sonego on Thursday. Still, an absolutely ridiculous 1-17 stretch earlier in the season is hard to ignore. Medvedev, who trounced Gael Monfils 6-3, 6-4 on Friday, is playing well and always seems to post good results during the fall swing. There are two guarantees in this matchup: 1) 20-ball and even 30-ball rallies will be in abundance; 2) Medvedev will win a vast majority of those rallies.

Pick: Medvedev in 2