Nineteen years after winning the Nordea Open title, Rafael Nadal is one win away from a second triumph at this tournament.

To say that getting back to this stage was difficult would be an understatement. Following straight-set victories over Leo Borg and Cameron Norrie, Nadal outlasted Mariano Navone 6-7(2), 7-5, 7-5 in a three-hour and 59-minute marathon. With no days off, the 38-year-old survived another three-setter in the semifinals–overcoming Duje Ajdukovic 4-6, 6-3, 6-4.

Standing in Nadal’s way of the trophy on Sunday afternoon is Nuno Borges, whom the Spaniard has never faced. Borges–the world No. 51 from Portugal–is enjoying by far his best season on tour, earning more than half of his lifetime tour-level match victories (17 of 33). That haul includes Bastad defeats of Andrea Pellegrino, Henrique Rocha, Timofey Skatov, and Thiago Agustin Tirante. Those players have respective rankings of 153rd, 182nd, 253rd, and 121st.

It has been nothing short of a hard-to-believe stretch of good luck with the draw, and now Borges runs into the No. 261 player in the world.

Of course, this is obviously a whole different beast of an opponent in the form of Nadal. Although he is obviously no longer in peak form, the 22-time Grand Slam champion played relatively well on clay this spring and is looking even better–and healthier–in this post-Wimbledon clay swing that will soon be highlighted by the Paris Olympics at Roland Garros.

Nadal has to be fatigued, but he can empty the tanking knowing that this is his last match in Bastad prior to a week off in advance of the Olympics. He should be able to take care of business against an opponent who doesn’t have the kind of firepower that will put Nadal on defense.

Pick: Nadal in 2