UCLA will also have an advantage in terms of the bench because the Bruins and Cronin can bring in more players that will impact the defense. Mara is the obvious one, but even William Kyle can find success in defending the paint. Sebastian Mack will bring renewed energy so that there is hopefully little drop-off from the starters. Trent Perry and Lazar Stefanovic bring talent (Perry) and savvy (Stefanovic) to the floor.
Much has been made of North Carolina’s “elite” defensive rebounding and taking care of the ball. The Tar Heels are only averaging 39 RPG, which is only two better than their opponents. Yes, they have 315 defensive rebounds on the season, but they’ve allowed 290. The Tar Heels are not an elite offensive rebounding team.
As for turnovers, yes, Carolina takes care of the ball, but so did Arizona, and UCLA forced the Wildcats into 22 turnovers last weekend. Whether that will be repeated by the UCLA defense remains to be seen, but Carolina hasn’t seen a defense that is stylistically like UCLA’s. This could be where the game is decided.
Cronin has a blueprint for beating this kind of opponent. Arizona was the same kind of team in terms of tempo, but UCLA held the Cats in the 50s.
The Bruins have to win the brutal math game, which in this case would be winning the turnover battle. Carolina has some active hands on the perimeter defensively and UCLA will have to be careful with the ball.
Carolina is a better team than Arizona. The Wildcats probably have the better coach in Tommy Lloyd, but Davis isn’t terrible. Again, his biggest weakness is that he isn’t a great adjuster in games. This will arguably be UCLA’s toughest game to date. But UCLA only beat Arizona by 3 points, and North Carolina is simply better. And in Davis, the Tar Heels have a player that can take over a game if he gets going.
This is another of those “prove it” games for the Bruins. It will be /should be close, and Davis may be the difference. I am picking North Carolina, but again, just like Arizona, don’t be a bit surprised if UCLA wins this one.
North Carolina 74
UCLA 71
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