As has been a familiar refrain during the non-conference slate, Alabama once again faces a team chock-full of talented shooters whose fortunes from the arc drive their success. But in many ways, Creighton could be the most challenging contest for Alabama’s guards since the Illinois game and for the same reason: post play and analytics. Like the Illini and the Tide, the Blue Jays live and die with their perimeter production. And, like those other contenders, Creighton has leaned into the analytics revolution to tweak Greg McDermott’s system away from a bruiser Big East team into one that will launch 30+ from deep every night.

Let’s take a look at the battered Blue Jays.

Tale of the Tape: No. 42 (KenPom, 7-3) vs No. 7 Alabama (7-2)

Spread (Totals): Alabama -1.5 (O/U 132)

Opponent KenPom: 42 (52 offense, 35 defense, 108 tempo)
Opponent Evan Miya: 40 (45 offense, 38 defense, 116 tempo)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 34 (34 offense, 35 defense, 94 tempo)
Opponent NET: 72 (Q2)
Opponent Best Win: No. 11 Kansas
Opponent Worst Loss: No. 62 at Nebraska

Alabama KenPom: 7th (4 Off, 34th Defense, 6th Tempo)
Evan Miya: 7th (3 Off, 20th Defense, 2nd Tempo)
Bart Torvik: 7 (3 Off, 30th Defense, 5th Tempo)
NET Ranking: 10 (3-2 Q1)
Best Win: No. 12 (N) Illinois
Worst Loss: No. 28 at Purdue

To say that Alabama basketball fans hate Creighton would be a bit of an understatement. The teams have rarely faced one another — just three times, all in the last 12 years, and the Tide has been skunked in those meetings. But how the Blue Jays got there is what rankles Alabama fans, as well as how the vile McDermott clan and the equally obnoxious Creighton fans have behaved in victory.

Need a refresher? Let’s take you back to the 2012 NCAA tournament, a game where Alabama led most of the second half, then was called for a controversial last second foul. Then when McDermott missed, the stripes called a rarely-whistled (and incorrect) lane violation on the Tide. On the other end, in the waning seconds, there was a clear shooting foul on Trelly that was not called. Final: 58-57 Creighton. And this also came after officials called 12 of the Tide’s 18 fouls in the final 11 minutes of play.

March 2016, an Alabama team with a new coach somehow battled back valiantly through a bad year to make the NIT. Who do they draw? Why yes, Creighton, on the road — who were able to smash and pick and throw elbows at the Tide with impunity beneath the glass en route to an unheard of 45 points in the paint. Alabama was never going to win that game, but the one-sided whistling on the offensive end didn’t help ‘Bama stay competitive either.

Last season, No. 8 Creighton at home against a rebuilt Alabama roster: the game was nip and tuck the entire way, with both teams going on massive runs but never quite able to put one another down. Alabama battled back and had a chance to tie with a last-second Sears shot that rimmed out from 30 feet. But the real controversy here was a surfeit of whistles. Alabama was getting mugged repeatedly from the arc all night and couldn’t buy a whistle. They played solid perimeter defense against the Jays, and on a night where Creighton couldn’t get anything to drop either, the stripes called Alabama for an unreal five shooting fouls from the three-point line. And, for the game, Creighton shot 2:1 in free throws and held a 2:1 personal foul advantage.

Everyone who’s been in the woods or watched in the backyard knows that bluejays are dicks. They are aggressive. They are loud. They disguise their dirty deeds beneath a lovely color pallet and a veneer of lovability that the casuals eat up.

And Creighton basketball could not have picked a more perfect mascot.

The 2024-2025 iteration of Creighton is one that is familiar to ‘Bama fans from last season. It is famed a high-scoring, balanced offense that takes strategic shots to push the floor. Though this season they run a bit more, shoot a lot more, and score significantly less. Like Rutgers and UNC, they play at tempo without being a pure tempo squad. However, the Blue Jays have also gone all-in this year on analytics and the computer revolution this season, including AI machine learning to assist with substitutions, preparation, tendencies, game calls and more. The result is a team that plays a much more analytically favored three-point game but that still starts inside-out.

At the same time, it’s a weaker team than last season, and one that has lacked the overall physicality and toughness of the 2024 Jays; and they certainly lack that fearsome firepower on all three levels.

Last year’s tormenting trio has been whittled down to two. The Big East’s best big man is back, and he leads Creighton in scoring at 17.3 PPG. But Kalkenbrenner isn’t doing it with volume. He shoots a Big East-best 73.8% shooting from the floor and also leads the BE in blocks (3.8) and rebounds (8.4). Ryan establishes outstanding position, is great with the basketball, can make his own shot, gets after loose balls (especially offensive misses), and is a fabulous rim protector. If that weren’t enough, he’s also a threat to step out and shoot from deep.

Alabama is simply going to have to platoon and try to match his effort: I don’t think there is any shutting him down. There are legitimate reasons to fear that the foul-prone Cliff may get sent to the bench early here. Kalkenbrenner has been plagued by some nagging early season injuries though, and could be gimpy at any moment.

While outstanding wingman Baylor Scheierman has moved on to the Celtics, Creighton’s best guard returns with PG Steven Ashworth. He’s one of four players averaging double digits for Creighton and is an impact point guard. He averages 16 a night and 6 assists per game, and is second in rebounding. He’s also the most consistent three-point shooter for the Blue Jays at 40%. But like Kalkenbrenner, he’s also battling nagging injuries and missed playing time. Let’s hope ‘Bama defends Ashworth better than they did UNC’s guards. He is more than happy to drive the lane and get defenders on their back foot.

The Blue Jays second-leading scorer, shooting guard TTU transfer Pop Isaacs was injured on Saturday, and is having season-ending hip surgery. That is a huge blow, as he was almost as productive as Ashworth and almost as good a perimeter shooter (38.3%). However, wing Jamiya Neal is also back, and though he’s listed as a guard, he does a bit of everything. He’s a remarkable rebounder at the swing spot, hauling in over 6 a game, can get to the basket and create his own looks, and he distributes almost as well as Ashworth, with 5 dimes a night.

But it is hard to undersell what a big loss Isaacs is. It’s not a team that shoots well from the perimeter or the stripe, and he was one of the Blue Jays best on the roster. His athleticism and Big 12 toughness is also sorely missed. So Creighton gets around that poor perimeter shooting by ball movement, feeding Kalkenbrenner, and volume shots. They are averaging over 29 a night from deep (19th), and are shooting five more over last year’s more accurate squad. That is a familiar story for the ‘Bama backcourt this year, with five opponents the Tide faced are in the Top 50 of 3PA, including No. 2 Illinois (34 per game).

The Jays don’t get to the line nearly as well as they did last season, but defensively they are lights-out: first in the country in opponent FT defense. They’re not getting whistles against them (shocker). Some of that is positioning; they play solid defense all around, but even more is on the shoulders of Kalkenbrenner. That is fortunate too, because this is a thinner Blue Jay bench than the one the Tide faced a year ago. Their key reserves at F and G both average over 20 a night, but combine for just a shade over 10 points a game.

And, critically, if there is any singular knock on this Creighton squad, it’s backcourt turnovers — preventing them and forcing them. They move the ball well, but their trio of guards also average almost 9 turnovers a game. It has made their TO rate much higher than even the sloppy Tide (316th). And, as bad as Alabama’s backcourt has been at forcing turnovers, Creighton has somehow been even worse, forcing a TO on fewer than 12% of opponent possessions (335th).

The loss of size to graduation and the pros has also made the Blue Jays a far less effective team getting after the glass defensively. Kalkenbrenner is fantastic following misses, but he’s been less effective in that respect. And since there’s not another impact big, what Creighton gets done down low, he’s mainly responsible for. But it’s not a one-man team. They are still quality rebounders, but that’s because the Jays are all-hustle. Every single player on this team crashes the glass. It’s why they’ve been as effective as they are, even if not as good as last season’s crew.

Bottom Line

This is the first time in four meetings that the Tide will host the Blue Jays at home. They are a team that can heat up from the perimeter (ask Kansas), and you can always pencil Kalkenbrenner in for a great night. But there are simply too many weaknesses on this banged up, thin bench.

The Jays are sloppy, they don’t play particularly great defense outside of the post, they don’t shoot very well from deep, and they don’t get to the line or rebound as well as they did last season. They are also prone to being bullied and rely way too much on the three point shot. It looks a lot like the 2022 Crimson Tide, honestly. In their three losses (including an absolute rout by SDSU and a deceptive stomping by Nebraska), they had 23 more turnovers than their opponents, lost the battle for the paint in every game, were outrebounded by 19, and averaged over 37 threes a night.

You can expect Creighton to do the exact same in Coleman too — try to go for a quick post look; if it’s not there, launch it from the perimeter and let Kalkenbrenner clean up the mess. Alabama will need to establish position on the inside, play smart on the perimeter, and exploit Creighton’s tendency to turn the ball over by converting those gaffes into easy transition buckets.

Alabama is the better team here, and probably significantly so. But a wounded animal is also a more dangerous animal…even if it’s a blue jay.

How To Watch

7:30 Central on SEC Network, ESPN streaming

Prediction

Alabama is better here, and is better and deeper at almost every position too. Creighton always had an uphill climb against this Alabama team, but barring some miracle off the bench, you can’t get a road win over a Top 10 team with a two-man game and one quality utility player.

Let’s hope the Tide takes this seriously, both in establishing the post and guarding the perimeter — ask Kansas what happens if you don’t.

No one has been able to fully rein in ‘Bama’s offense yet this season, and I don’t think an injured Creighton team will be the first to do so. I rarely make basketball mortal locks, but Tide and Over is one of the best parlays you’ll see this year.

Alabama 86
Creighton 74

Hope for the best.
Roll Tide.