I’ve been publishing my weekly preview on X (@nagelbagels) all season, chronicling my journey in the SGPN Freeroll Football contest. Thanks to the boys for allowing me to share it as the season winds down. I currently sit T48, but only six behind Kramer, which we can agree is the real Gold standard. I hope you enjoy it!

FG!!!

Bagel Bites: NFL Week 15 preview

Another week in the books, and another week of taking it in the shorts. I look back at my win numbers this season, and it’s just a hodgepodge of 6, 7, 8-win weeks. A countless number of times, I’m on the wrong end of a back door cover (thanks, Dallas, New Orleans), and yes, those things are gonna happen. But at some point, you are on the right side of that BS cover, and it evens out. Not this year. Not for me, anyway. I suppose it’s better to go from good weeks to average than from average to bad. I’ve been good this year, and that includes a ton of flukiness. Let’s see what we have for Week 15

Rams at 49ers (-2.5)

Hand way up as my worst pick of the week was the Bears over the Niners. You saw the first 5 minutes of that game, and you knew it was over. Vintage Niners. No McCaffrey, no problem. Running backs don’t matter. Purdy didn’t look that banged up. No new coach bump out of the Bears. Just a Big L on that one. So, do we overreact to the Niners now? They’re back? I did nail the Rams cover over Buffalo. Do we overreact to that now? If the Niners are getting right, and that’s a big If, this is a really tough spot for the Rams.

Letdown is percolating after that big Buffalo win and on the road Thursday night against the perceived best team in your division. And if you look at the Rams schedule the rest of the way, at the Jets, home Cards, and Seattle to close, they can lose this game and still finish 10-7. Niners may struggle to get to 9-8, but they need this one. I’m gonna lay the tricky and curious 2.5 with the rejuvenated Niners in this rivalry game. Lay and pray

Cowboys at Panthers (-2.5)

This is getting out of hand. Bryce Young and the Panthers are getting a lot of respect for LOSING 3 straight games. Participation trophy culture is at its worst. Now, they are favored to win a football game. What is happening? Yes, they’ve been covering, and to some, that’s all that matters, but eventually, that balloon pops! Dallas just blew that Bengals game in awful fashion, and I think they get the win here.

Chiefs at Browns (+4.5)

Back-to-back 19-17 Wins for KC. Pretty gross. Is the move just taking the points in these KC games? We are all just waiting for that rocking chair 38-7 game that just isn’t happening. I thought for sure it would be last week when I finally went against them, but it actually worked out!

Now they go to King Jameis’s house for all-you-can-eat crab legs laying 4.5. In the last home game for Cleveland, they beat the Steelers. Is that reason enough to believe they can stay within three here? I think it is. I’m tired of waiting for the Chiefs to be the Chiefs again. I’m taking the points.

Dolphins at Texans (-2.5)

The curious case of 2.5 strikes again. Miami stinks. Houston was supposed to be a contender in the AFC. 2.5? In Houston? Smells fishy! There is a look-ahead spot, as Houston has KC next week. But, if you do a double look ahead spot and see it’s KC and then Baltimore, all of a sudden, it’s, oh crap, we need this one. The Texans are fresh coming out of the bye. Dolphins couldn’t handle the Jets at home with everything on the line. I think they are a dead team. Lay and pray with Houston.

Jets at Jaguars (+3.5)

What is going on here?? Look, I’m not one to peacock and make grand declarations of locks, mega whale, mortgage bet-type slogans. However, if you are laying 3.5 points with the Jets, you should be exiled to only betting on the WNBA or, worse, soccer. I don’t care who they are playing. This is egregious. Now, could they win a 10-6 game? Yes, yes, they could. Doesn’t make you a sane person for picking it.

Ok, so what’s the case with Mac Jones and Jax? Well, they did win a road game. They got spunk! They did keep it within 3 with Houston in the game, and they lost Lawrence. So, since losing their QB, who might stink, they have a back door cover vs Houston and now a road win. Getting hot! And now getting 3.5 at home vs Jets? Get out of here, Jax, all day.

Commanders at Saints (+7.5)

The first instinct is to make too many points. Then I remember the Saints have no QB. But then I remember Washington has no defense but is off a bye. Remember that Thursday night game when Bo Nix and the Broncos went into New Orleans and put up 33 points? Can’t Washington do that?

I actually saw some of that Giants game last week and was not inspired by this Saints team. Betting splits seem to indicate the public is on Washington here, and I have to agree with them. Maybe that Tennessee game and subsequent bye week were the get-right spot they needed. Twenty-four points should get it done. Lay and pray!

Ravens at Giants (-14.5)

Lol. Stinky Lamar vs my beloved awful Giants. In years past, when the Giants were near the end of yet another awful season, you would get an inspiring effort against a better opponent. Kent Graham vs the Broncos comes to mind. Tommy Devito over the Packers. Hell, the game when they beat the Ravens a few years ago also qualifies. The point is that you get unexpected efforts when you least expect them. 14.5 is crazy. But the Ravens are off a loss and a bye week to think about said loss.

They could just come out and annihilate the G-men. Do you know what you don’t want to do when you are 2-11? Deal with an inspired and motivated Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. Come to think of it, 14.5 may not be enough. This is 38-7. Don’t even need prayers, the Giants do. Lay it

Bengals at Titans (+4.5)

Man, there is a ton of home dogs this week. Those moneyline parlays are gonna be cooking! It’s a prime letdown spot for the Bengals after a fortunate bounce, win, and cover Monday in Dallas. At 5-8, with Tennessee, Cleveland, and Denver next, is it plausible they can get to 8-8 heading to Pittsburgh the last week of the season? That still probably won’t be enough, but the coach can sell it as still being alive.

That defense is a problem, though, and I can see Tennessee making enough plays to keep this within three at home. Levis is a chucker, and that’s prime for a big play opportunity versus a shady defense. I think this will be a field goal game unless I get screwed again, and they break one for a touchdown in the last minute when playing for a field goal. Still stewing

Patriots at Cardinals (-5.5)

Oh, my Cardinals. What an awful performance last week. Let’s see if Kyler throws another pick before I finish this blog. Just awful. That’s three straight losses coming out of the bye, and they are quickly becoming who we thought they were. A reverse Bryce Young situation.

As soon as we say that, the equally brutal Pats come to town in what seems like the ultimate get-right spot. Pats a little rested off their bye but is that enough to fly across country at 3-10 and play inspired football? I don’t think so. Giving my Cards one last shot as it seems most have given up on them. We’ll see! Lay and pray

Colts at Broncos (-3.5)

Can’t get a special Manningcast this game? Peyton’s former teams battle with two interesting quarterbacks at the helm. I’ve been wrong about the Broncos all year, but who might be decent? I’ve been wrong about the Colts, too, who stink. So, who am I gonna be wrong with this week? I went opposite last week in a few spots, and it worked out.

Pittsburgh crushed, KC didn’t cover, etc. The instinct here is to think of a field goal game, take the points, Denver stinks, the Colts are good, etc etc. Well, I’m not gonna do that. I’m wrong. Denver is good, the Colts stink, and the dome team is outside. Don’t overthink it. Gonna lay points with Denver in a very unorthodox move for me!

Bills at Lions (-1.5)

Oh man, what a game! Not even on Peacock, either. Are the Lions teetering? Playing with fire? Losing their mojo? I’ll tell ya what. The Lions were about to go up 23-0 on Thanksgiving vs the Bears when the running back (it doesn’t matter who bc running backs don’t matter) fumbled on the 5-yard line. The Bears ended up covering and nearly tying that game. But since that fumble, the Lions’ mojo has been off. Turning point in the season? That Packers game was closer than I expected. I may start to believe they are human if the Bills walk in here and get a win. This is an over game if I ever saw one. 54.5? Please. Up and down the field, they go. Who has the ball last?

I think that’s who I’m taking lol. If you look closely at Bill’s Road schedule/results this year, it’s not all that impressive, actually. They were blown out by the Ravens. Loss to Texans. Last week to the Rams. So it’s possible. I love the over here, and I will take the Lions as well. I think they restore some normalcy to the football universe

Bucs at Chargers (-2.5)

Todd Bowles vs Jim Harbaugh. -2.5. That’s pretty f’ing enticing. Look, I love Baker Mayfield. I wanted the Giants to sign him on a prove-it deal, but who needs him when you got Daniel Jones at 40 million a season? Not the Giants! The Bucs are now leading their division despite losing to the Falcons twice this year. Looks like the 7-6 Bucs need to get to 10 wins to win the South. They close with the Cowboys, Panthers, and Saints.

Ten is there, even with the loss here. Tampa to LA is a long trip. Chargers off loss and at 8-5 are in prime playoff making position. Are they gonna Charger like teams of the past and end up 9-8, or 8-9 and miss playoffs? Unlikely. They close with the Patriots and Raiders. Harbaugh and Herbert can be deadly in the playoffs. Can’t wait. I’m taking the Chargers here off a loss in a distinct coaching advantage.

Steelers at Eagles (-4.5)

Steelers lose their best receiver just in time for the Eagles game. Those are the breaks, I guess. A little jammed up here as I’m ready for the Eagles to start losing some games and quiet the enthusiasm a little bit. I’m also ready for Russell Wilson to go away. I guess the good news is that one of these things has to happen, right? Seriously though, is there anything worse than early December hype? I try not to fall into the trap. Let it play out a little. Playoffs are a different animal. Running backs don’t matter. Anything can happen.

I went the opposite with the Steelers last week and hit. The rule is you take the Steelers as a dog. Should I do the opposite? I’m so biased with the Eagles. I hate them so much. Always have. But they’re good. I’m not that dumb. So how do you beat them? You need to take away the running game and make Hurts beat you with his arm. Is the Steelers defense good enough to do that? One can hope! This is a totally biased pick with my heart, and I will try to will to victory. Give me those points, and let’s manifest that cover.

Packers at Seahawks (+2.5)

Sorry, Geno, I am not buying it. Seattle won four straight out of the bye, but you must consider the opponents. Cards twice, Jets, Niners. I’m not impressed. Now the Packers come in off long rest and a loss, and the line is only 2.5? Is that a trap? Let me think. No. Weird stuff seems to happen when these two franchises meet, and I’ll give you that.

I think the Packers are a much better and well rounded team than Seattle, therefore I think 2.5 is a nice discount. Hope the weather cooperates to limit the weirdness! I can see Seattle being a popular home dog this week among the plethora of tasty dogs. I’m going with the better team off a loss. Time for serious December football

Bears at Vikings (-6.5)

2 Monday night games? So weird. If you have 2 Monday Night Football games, you don’t have any! The Vikings are another team I’ve been wrong about. People (mostly Bill Simmons) seem to think Sam Darnold is a real quarterback. Whether he is or not may not matter in this game with the Vikings’ defense at home in prime time vs a rookie QB.

You would think it would be enough to cover the 6.5 as it seems the Bears are onto the offseason. Losers of 7 straight out of bye week, fired coach, on the road,d and I’m supposed to feel good about taking 6.5? The only case I’ll listen to is that the line is suspicious. Is this one of those teaser-killer games? You know what? Starting to feel like it. I have nothing to lose here. Give me the Bears and the points! No way Darnold wins 7 in a row.

Falcons at Raiders (+4.5)

What a dogshit game to close the week. And you are gonna watch it bc of your silly fantasy team, where running backs actually matter. Bijan and the boys go to Vegas looking for their dignity. It’s not the best town to do that. Desmond Ridder’s revenge game?? I believe so. How can you not like the Raiders here? I like Crosby against Kirk Cousins. Yes, they’ve lost nine straight, but they’re due! Atlanta limps in here, and I think Vegas will get it done. I kinda want Vegas to keep losing and get the number 1 pick to take the decision out of the Giants’ hands, but I don’t always get what I want, and I think they cover this at home.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on X at @Nagelbagels for even more picks and analysis.