Saturday’s Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs is a qualifying points race for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and the local prep for the track’s marquee race, the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby next month.

The 1 1/16-mile race drew a field of 10 3-year-olds, and among that group, all eyes will likely be on Poster, winner of the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes held at 1 1/8 miles when last seen on Dec. 7. Owen Almighty crossed the finish line first in the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes over this track last month, but was disqualified for interference and placed fifth, with Naughty Rascal moved into first. Naughty Rascal previously won the Armed Forces Stakes on turf in November. Treaty of Rome came up a neck short in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes last month and is another likely contender. Smoken Boy is a Kentucky-bred colt who has run three times, all in Puerto Rico, including a recent stakes victory. Dr. Ruben M enters the race following a fourth-place effort in the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes in December, from which winner Coal Battle returned from to win the Smarty Jones Stakes last month. John Hancock won his only start rather easily and could improve to be a contender at this level. Very Bold finished third in the Pasco and was moved up to second, so he may be competitive. Camp Hale and Gateskeeper are both maidens (never having won a race) and appear overmatched.

Main win contenders:

Naughty Rascal finished second in the Pasco Stakes four weeks ago on this track but was awarded the win when original winner Owen Almighty was disqualified for interference. Prior to that he also finished second, in the shorter six-furlong Inaugural Stakes in December. In addition to being in excellent form with 95 and then 93 Equibase Speed Figures in those two races, Naughty Rascal should run even better when stretching out to two turns as he is doing in this situation, as he won the Armed Forces Stakes at a mile (albeit on turf) prior to the Inaugural. He’s won four of six races and never finished worse than third, and Naughty Rascal has another potential advantage in that he has raced as far back as fifth in the early stages before winning. That may give him a tactical edge in this speed-laden field in which Camp Hale (on the rail), John Hancock, Dr Ruben M and Owen Almighty all appear to be need-the-lead types, with the last of these adding blinkers after leading from start to finish in the Pasco. Jockey Edwin Gonzalez has been aboard for three of Naughty Rascal’s wins, and per a Race Lens query, trainer Gerald Bennett has a strong record when stretching his horses out from a sprint to a route on dirt the past three years, with a +112% return on investment and 12 wins from 54 races (22%). Those are a lot of factors in favor of Naughty Rascal running good enough to win this year’s Sam F. Davis Stakesm where he is the co-fourth betting choice at 6-1 on the morning line.

Poster improved nicely over the course of three races last year as a 2-year-old, going from a 72 Equibase Speed Figure in his debut, to 93, then to 97 when winning the Remsen Stakes in December at the longer distance of one mile and one-eighth. All three races were around two turns and the 63-day layoff he’s coming back from is of no concern, considering there were 56 days between his second win and the Remsen. Jockey Antonio Gallardo, who has finished in the top three among all jockeys at Tampa Bay Downs over the past three years, gets on as Flavien Prat moves to John Hancock, so there is no concern with Poster running another “A” race good enough to win.

Treaty of Rome hasn’t run nearly as fast to date as either Naughty Rascal or Poster, but newly turned 3-year-olds can improve markedly from one race to the next and that may be the case here. When he was stretched out to a mile for his second career start in December, Treaty of Rome improved to a career-best 85 Equibase figure as he won nicely – and then one month later he was defeated by inches in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. Stretching out to two turns for the first time should bring on improvement based on the colt’s pedigree, as he is a full brother to Donna Veloce, who won over $500,000 her career including a Grade 3 stakes and was second in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Treaty of Rome is trained by Chad Brown, who has never won the Sam F. Davis Stakes. However, a Race Lens query tells us Brown has won 29 dirt route stakes races for 3-year-olds (from 134 starts) over the last five years, so his winless streak in this race could be broken with Treaty of Rome.

Two additional horses, who appear to fit very well on paper and may be fancied by bettors, are John Hancock and Owen Almighty, but I don’t consider them as likely to win as any of the three contenders above. John Hancock won his one and only race to date, but it was at the distance of six furlongs, so he lacks experience at a mile or more that many of the other entrants in this race possess. Additionally, although he earned a 94 figure which is the third-best last-race figure in the field, John Hancock won that race when leading from start to finish, and he may have a tough time getting the same kind of trip considering Camp Hale is drawn inside on the rail and will want the lead from the start.

Additionally, Dr Ruben M and Owen Almighty both appear to be horses that need to race on the lead to perform best.

Owen Almighty led from start to finish last month when winning the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes before being disqualified for interference and placed fifth, earning a 95 figure which is the second-best last-race figure in the field behind the 97 figure Poster earned winning the Remsen. However, for this race, he adds blinkers which can only add to his desire to lead from the start, and as noted there are two other horses with same running style in Camp Hale and John Hancock inside him. They could force him to either go too fast early and make him vulnerable to the stalkers and closers, or in an alternate scenario could put him in a stalking position where he may not have the needed late kick. When he was faced with a similar task in the Iroquois Stakes last September, he only moved up one spot and only made up three-quarters of a length in the final eighth of a mile.

The rest of the field, with their best  Equibase Speed Figures, is Camp Hale (94), Dr Ruben M (88), Gateskeeper (86), Smoken Bay (53) and Very Bold (86).

Main Win Contenders, in probability order:

Naughty Rascal

Poster

Treaty of Rome