There is little more exciting in North American Thoroughbred racing than the return of a horse of the year.

For one, it happens rarely. When Thorpedo Anna faces starter’s orders Saturday at Oaklawn in the Grade 2 Azeri Stakes, she will be only the second horse of the year since 2017 to make a start the following year and the first since 2014 with a full campaign planned.

Neither of the horses of the year who returned to the track since 2014 were favored in their next starts, California Chrome in 2014 and 2016 and Knicks Go in 2021. And they lost, to boot.

In fact, since Rachel Alexandra in 2009, horses of the year are just 3-for-7 with a -44.2% return on investment in their next start. The wins paid $2.20 in the case of Havre de Grace in the 2012 New Orleans Ladies and $2.80 for Wise Dan in both the 2013 and 2014 Maker’s Mark Mile.

Thorpedo Anna is sure to be the first horse of the year to be favored since Wise Dan was 2-5 at Keeneland. When she faces six others in the Azeri, she is more likely to be closer to the 1-10 of Rachel Alexandra and Havre de Grace than Wise Dan’s 2-5.

Of course Thorpedo Anna is the most likely winner, three times more likely than the next two choices and 50 times more likely than the longest shot of the septet. But 1-5 means she needs to win this race 83% of the time. Put another way, I think the rest of the field has a better than 17% chance of pulling an upset.

What caught my eye most about looking at the Brisnet past performances is that all entrants have front-end interest. Thorpedo Anna has won both races in which she set the pace, but she is more than capable of pressing. I’ll be interested in trainer Kenny McPeek’s and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr.’s tactics here. The data say she can blitz this field from the rail, but if they go out of their way to avoid a speed duel then that can be a fly in the ointment.

Alpine Princess has the look of a closer and might get the best trip besides Thorpedo Anna. Jody’s Pride is similar but should be a little more forward and so could get the jump on Alpine Princess. Wild About Hilary is not impossible, but I do not love that she has to give three pounds to the champ and five to the aforementioned Alpine Princess and Jody’s Pride. The others are outsiders.

If you’re heck bent not to bet against Thorpedo Anna in the top spot, then I’d take the longest price of Alpine Princess, Jody’s Pride and Wild About Hilary in an exacta and a tri key with the other two. Depending on the show pool I’d maybe take a poke on Alpine Princess and Jody’s Pride to show as well.