First round action at the Australian Open features wily veterans Fabio Fognini and Grigor Dimitrov squaring off, along with a host of other great matches. Our panelists at Last Word on Tennis offer all their predictions for the matches in Melbourne.

We split the rest of Monday’s matches in Melbourne between six other articles. They feature Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Shevchenko, Jannik Sinner vs Nicolas Jarry, Novak Djokovic vs Nishesh Basavareddy, Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Alex Michelsen, Arthur Rinderknech vs Frances Tiafoe, and Nick Kyrgios vs Jacob Fearnley. Who do you think will advance to Round 2?

Australian Open Day 2 Predictions

Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Jakub Mensik

Steen Kirby: A quarterfinalist in both Brisbane and Auckland, Mensik is rapidly rising, having crossed the top 50 in the rankings at just 19. He won 26 tour level matches and reached an ATP final last year. The 32 year old Basilashvili  came through qualifying, he hasn’t been a factor on Tour in two years but did find some success on the ATP Challenger Tour last season. Mensik should rise to the occasion and reach the second round.
Prediction: Mensik in 3

Liam McBride: Two big hitting games, this is sure to be an entertaining one. Basilashvili is making his first appearance at a Grand Slam in two years when he lost the first round in Melbourne. Expect a similar story this time around. Mensik made great progress last year, and his big frame plus excellent baseline game will make him too hot to handle.
Prediction: Mensik in 3

Ismael Gonzalez: It’s hard to predict Basilashvili’s matches, since his interest levels do not always seem to be optimal. He did however qualify without dropping a set, which shows he does have more than enough talent to be an ATP tour player if he’s focused. His deep, aggressive game could trouble Mensik, who is not the most agile player, but at this point in Nikoloz’s career, it is hard to imagine him maintaining the level required to beat such a good player for long enough.
Prediction: Mensik in 4

Damian Kust: Basilashvili is showing a lot of dedication in his quest to return to the top of the sport, which we weren’t expecting. He’ll have his chances here after not dropping a set in the qualifying, but it’s tough to say if he’s got three great sets in him against someone of this quality. Doesn’t help that Mensik started the season on a high note.
Prediction: Mensik in 4

Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Fabian Marozsan

Steen: Marozsan and Seyboth Wild both reached career high rankings last year, at 25 and 24 respectively. These are rising talents, on this surface Marozsan is the much stronger player though and should hold the upper hand in the rallies, he comes off a recent quarterfinal and should be in good form heading into this Grand Slam.
Prediction: Marozsan in 3

Liam: They are two of the least predictable players on tour. Seyboth Wild announced himself in 2023 with a shock win over Daniil Medvedev and excelled last year against Karen Khachanov at the 2024 BNP Paribas Open. Marozsan is remembered for his incredible win over Carlos Alcaraz at the 2023 Italian Open. This will be a tightly contested match, with the backhand match-up key. In the end, the added solidity of the Hungarian’s will prove enough over the course.
Prediction: Marozsan in 3

Ismael: In a way, these are similar players: they broke onto the ATP tour not too long ago, they are very offensively talented and they lack day-to-day consistency. Nonetheless, considering Marozsan has already played in 2025, beating Rublev and Safiullin in Hong Kong, while TSW has not played preparation tournaments, paired with the fact that Marozsan beat him 6-2 6-2 in Miami in 2024, the Hungarian seems to have the upper hand.
Prediction: Marozsan in 4

Damian: When they played each other in Indian Wells last year, Marozsan really took the game to Seyboth Wild and was rushing him to no end. Luckily for the Hungarian this isn’t a tactic for this particular matchup, it’s just something that comes to him naturally. He should have no issues repeating it and likely taking the win again.
Prediction: Marozsan in 4

Matteo Arnaldi vs Lorenzo Musetti

Steen: A quarterfinalist in Hong Kong, Musetti is playing some of the best tennis of his career right now, facing a fellow Italian, he should have the upper hand, Arnaldi was at a career high ranking last year and has been strong on the Challenger Tour, but he likely lacks the firepower to get a win.
Prediction: Musetti in 4

Liam: The all-Italian showdown will be an entertaining spectacle. After a bronze Olympic medal and maiden Grand Slam semi-final last season, Musetti will be looking to build on this momentum. His flashy shots and sky-high confidence will allow him to overcome a slow start.
Prediction: Musetti in 4

Ismael: On hard courts, Musetti is far from being the guarantee that he is on clay. In fact, he lost to Munar in his last appearance. Arnaldi, on the other hand, is not the most consistent player either: he has lost four of his last five matches, but the one he won, he demolished Popyrin. It is quite hard to predict what this match will end up looking like, and it could well come down to who plays better on the day, but Musetti has to be considered the slight favorite.
Prediction: Musetti in 5

Damian: Musetti wasn’t too lucky with his draw here. Arnaldi is one of the best unseeded players in the field and their power level on hard courts isn’t that much different. The seeded Italian used to dominate this matchup back in the day, but these are all clay-court matches long in the past. Arnaldi with a good serving day and aggressive play has a real shot here.
Prediction: Arnaldi in 5

Fabio Fognini vs Grigor Dimitrov

Steen: A semifinalist in Brisbane, Dimitrov has continued his late career resurgence, a past semifinalist at the AO, Dimitrov is a potential dark horse to win the title, the former young gun is 33 and has been tough to take down in the last year. The 37-year-old Fognini hasn’t been a factor on the tour in 5 years, his best result at the AO is the round of 16, but a first-round defeat looks likely here.
Prediction Dimitrov in 3

Liam: There may be some doubts over the Bulgarian’s fitness after being forced into retiring early against Jiri Lehecka. However, Fognini has never been the most intense tennis player, with his languid style easy to pounce upon. At the age of 37, this is even more the case nowadays. Dimitrov to win comfortably.
Prediction Dimitrov in 3

Ismael: Are either of these players ready to go? Fognini retired mid-match against Bonzi in Adelaide, while Dimitrov retired mid-match against Lehecka in Brisbane. Potential health issues aside, Fognini struggled all of 2024 on hard courts, while Dimitrov played great tennis. It is also worth noting that Dimitrov leads the head-to-head 5-2, although they have not played since 2022. If the Bulgarian is healthy, he is the clear-cut favorite.
Prediction: Dimitrov in 3

Damian: Dimitrov retired in the Brisbane semifinals and for the time being we can’t be sure about his physical state. But even if he’s not quite 100%, it’s hard to imagine Fognini pulling this off at this stage of his career. He can still play a solid set or two, but not on hard courts against an opponent of this caliber.
Prediction: Dimitrov in 3

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