ATP 250 Umag semifinals

Rublev – Cerundolo: 26.07.2024 17:00 CEST
H2H: 1-1

Andrey Rublev has won three of his last five matches. Rublev was the defending champion last week in Bastad. However, he failed in his first match yet again. Rublev lost against Tirante in three tight sets. Here in Umag, Andrey won his first match against Ugo Carabelli in straight sets as we predicted. Today, Rublev had it harder against Marozsan. The Russian lost the first set, but stayed composed and turned the match around. In 2017, Andrey won the title here in Umag as a lucky loser.

Francisco Cerundolo has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Hamburg, Cerundolo reached the quarterfinals where he lost against Martinez in three tight sets. Here in Umag, Cerundolo won his first round match against Dodig in easy straight sets. Cerundolo did not offer any breakpoints, and served well throughout the whole match. Today, Francisco had it tough against Sonego. Francisco managed to stay calm in the deciding set tiebreak and won the match in three tight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Rublev is the slight favorite in this matchup. Both players were out of form coming into this tournament. We expect a tight match that could go either way. Both players are inconsistent, so we expect a rollercoaster type of match.

That being said, over games is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: over 22.5 games @-118 @FanDuel

Mensik – Musetti: 26.07.2024 19:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting

Jakub Mensik has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Newport, Mensik lost his first round match against Bolt in straight sets. Here in Umag, Mensik is yet to lose a set. In his first round match, Jakub defeated Popyrin in straight sets. In the second round, Mensik upset Darderi in straight sets yet again. Today, Tseng stood no chance against Jakub in his quarterfinal match. Mensik was unplayable. So far this season, Jakub has not had any remarkable results on clay. His biggest results were on the fast hard courts.

Lorenzo Musetti has won four of his last five matches. The last match he played before ATP Umag was at Wimbledon where he lost in the semifinals against Novak Djokovic in straight sets. Musetti took some time off to get rested for the second part of the season. Here in Umag, Lorenzo won his first round match against Trungelliti in straight sets. Today, Lorenzo won against Lajovic, after he was set down. So far this season, Musetti has not had any remarkable results on clay. Last time he played in Umag was in 2022, where he lost in the 1/8-Finals against Cecchinato in straight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Mensik is the underdog in this matchup. As we already mentioned before, Jakub plays great tennis here in Umag. He is yet to lose a set. On the other hand, Musetti had a rough second match against Lajovic tonight. He will not have much time to rest for his semifinal match. We believe that Mensik will keep this match tight.

That being said, Mensik covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Jakub Mensik +2.5 games handicap @2.00 @bet365

Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports