Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Roberto Bautista Agut in the Moselle Open at 12/1 (Betfred, William Hill)

1pt e.w. Miomir Kecmanovic in the Belgrade Open at 18/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Moselle Open

• Metz, France (indoor hard)

I usually love the 250s but this looks an odd week on the ATP Tour.

Maybe that’s because my confidence is shot after a string of money-match losers ended last week in even worse fashion, none of my Paris picks even making it to the semis.

However, even for those coming into this week buzzing, there’s a lot to ponder.

Here in Metz, they’ve played on Slamcourt hardcourt surface for many years, although organisers tell me this year it’s Polytan. There’s no sign of Polytan being an officially-recognised ITF surface so I’m at a loss as to what surface they are even playing on – quite why the ATP aren’t publishing this information any more, I have no idea.

It’s fair to say that qualifying suggests it’s at least a little slower than in the past.

Another factor to consider is motivation levels.

It’s the last week of a long regular season, although some players still have plenty to play for.

Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud are here bidding to claim a place in next week’s season-ending ATP Finals in Turin.

Rublev certainly needs to perform this week as he sits ninth in the ‘Race to Turin’ with only the top eight guaranteed a spot.

Ruud starts the week in seventh and knows a deep run will be enough for him to overhaul sixth-placed Novak Djokovic (not playing this week) and seal his spot.

But while the motivation to play well is obvious, it’s doesn’t necessarily translate that these two are here to win at all costs.

It could well be that halfway through the week, everything has been sorted in the Race and, if that’s the case, I would not be at all surprised to see the Turin qualifiers withdraw. Are they really going to want to hang around in Metz rather than heading to Turin to acclimatise to the higher altitude and fully prepare to take on the world’s best?

Another group well motivated will be the home players.

Ugo Humbert’s name will catch the eye for many on the drawsheet given his efforts in Paris last week, making the final a week after we backed him in Basel, but the defending champion seems unlikely to make it to the start line, admitting he had been battling back pain all week in the French capital.

Arthur Rinderknech was another to shine in Paris, making a run to the last 16 where he only lost 7-6 in the third to Grigor Dimitrov.

33/1 is tempting but the quick conditions last week were ideal for Rinderknech and it won’t be as fast here.

One final group of players still motivated at this time of year are those with the Davis Cup Finals still to look forward to.

They will be played indoors in Malaga, beginning on November 19 and so they will ideally want to head to Spain with wins under their belt and confidence high.

One of those fitting the bill is ROBERTO BAUTISTA AGUT and he may be worth a try here at 12/1.

The veteran Spaniard has been working his way back from a long-term injury this season and his efforts were recently rewarded with the title in Antwerp.

RBA beat three seeds en route to the title – Tomas Etcheverry, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Jiri Lehecka – and lost only one set all week. He followed that up by beating Ruud in Basel.

Not ranked high enough to make the Paris entry list, he’s now well rested and ready to go again.

As already touched upon, it’s hard to be sure about the court conditions but unless it plays super quick – and qualifying data suggests that’s not the case – the experienced Bautista Agut should be able to cope.

Having also beaten Arthur Fils and Lehecka indoors in Davis Cup, he’s now 8-1 indoors since the US Open and is looking like keeping Rafael Nadal out of the singles line-up for those Malaga Finals.

Another good run this week will surely ensure that, so the motivation levels are clear to see. Back him.

Belgrade Open

• Belgrade, Serbia (indoor hard)

There’s more awkwardness for punters at this event – a new one on the ATP Tour which replaces Gijon on the calendar.

The Belgrade Arena has staged tennis events before – two Davis Cup finals have been held at this cavernous venue.

Novak Djokovic led Serbia to victory in 2010 but famously didn’t play the doubles rubber in 2013, a decision which backfired as the Czech Republic claimed the trophy.

But while plenty of memories have been created here, there’s no ‘course form’ to go on.

And, again, there’s no confirmed news on the court surface, only the fact that Dunlop ATP balls are in use.

Qualifying suggests it’s fairly medium in terms of speed which is probably not too surprising given Serbia has both clay specialists like Laslo Djere and Dusan Lajovic in this field, as well as those who like things faster such as MIOMIR KECMANOVIC and Hamad Medjedovic.

Similar motivation factors to Metz are in play here with Alex de Minaur the one man in this field aiming to book his place at those ATP Finals.

He starts the week eighth in the Race, knowing the title secures his spot. However, he’ll be in regardless if Andrey Rublev loses his opening match in Metz so you again have to weigh up the likelihood of De Minaur still being fully motivated later in the week. For me, he’s a shaky favourite.

The home players should be going full pelt. Serbia is a fiercely patriotic nation and the crowd has been superb in Davis Cup ties here in the past.

Kecmanovic is the one who seems most likely to shine.

He’s in a weak-looking quarter, the bottom one.

It’s been hit by the late withdrawal of second seed Tommy Paul with Nuno Borges now in his slot. Luciano Darderi, a claycourter, is the other seed drawn into this part of the draw.

Kecmanovic recently made the last eight in Stockholm where he beat Cam Norrie and Nicolas Jarry before losing to eventual champion Paul. He also won a couple of matches in Paris where he was beaten in a tight one by De Minaur.

It’s also worth noting that he played well when Belgrade held outdoor claycourt events in recent years, making the quarter-finals in both 2021 and 2022, losing to Djokovic on both occasions.

I think he’ll be ready for one final push in front of home support and, at 18/1, he gets the nod ahead of Marton Fucsovics (25/1), who has played well in qualifying, winning both matches in straight sets and losing serve only once.

The Hungarian has made two ATP indoor finals before and has been involved in tight battles with Felix Auger-Aliassime and Matteo Berrettini in recent weeks.

Another worth considering in the bottom half is Tomas Martin Etcheverry who has that Davis Cup carrot dangling.

The Argentine will want wins this week before heading to Malaga and played well enough in Paris last week, losing only 7-5 in the third to Dimitrov in conditions which were faster than ideal for him.

However, 14/1 looks about right and the same can be said of the price of the man I considered in the top half, namely Roman Safiullin.

He played well in Asia recently and has had plenty of decent results indoors in the past.

The Russian proved his propensity for such conditions only last week when winning the Bratislava Challenger but the bookies are clued up to his potential and 12/1 isn’t for me.

I’ll therefore stick with home hope Kecmanovic as we look for a change of fortune.

Published at 1955 GMT on 03/11/24

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