Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Lorenzo Sonego in the Chengdu Open at 16/1 (BetVictor)

1pt e.w. Juncheng Shang in the Chengdu Open at 14/1 (BetVictor)

0.5pt e.w. Yannick Hanfmann in the Chengdu Open at 25/1 (BetVictor)

2pts win Brandon Nakashima in the Hangzhou Open at 13/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt e.w. Zhizhen Zhang in the Hangzhou Open at 14/1 (BetVictor)

0.5pt e.w. Mikhail Kukushkin in the Hangzhou Open at 40/1 (BetVictor)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Chengdu Open

• Chengdu, China (outdoor hard)

It’s a Wednesday start on the ATP Tour this week, giving those players who were involved in the Davis Cup across the globe last week the chance to get to China.

When they arrive in Chengdu, they can expect to find quick conditions.

The city is around 500m above sea level so there’s altitude in play this week and that makes the balls fly through the air that bit quicker.

It’s also hot – temperatures are forecast to hit a high of 35C – and the DecoTurf courts have proved pretty fast since the tour first came here in 2016.

Long-term readers will know I often look to seek out a proven altitude performer in events such as these and this time that man if YANNICK HANFMANN.

The German looks in good shape to make a title bid this week having spent last week in China, playing for his country in Zhuhai, where he went 2-0 in Davis Cup play.

Jet-leg certainly won’t be an issue for a player who has often gone well at altitude.

Earlier this summer it took Felix Auger-Aliassime to stop him in Gstaad, while the following week in Kitzbuhel he made the semi-finals.

OK, those events were on his favoured clay but he was serving well in Zhuhai last week where his numbers were good.

He lost serve only twice in the five sets he played, banged down 26 aces and won 78% of his first-serve points.

If he stays in that groove, those figures should only increase at this venue where the field isn’t the strongest.

Pedro Martinez and Giovanni Mpetschi Perricard, a player who has gone just 1-4 since Wimbledon, look weak seeds in this quarter, while I’m also happy to oppose second seed Alexander Bublik.

His big first serve could carry him far here but he’s won just 10 of 25 matches since reaching the Dubai final in early March and arrives here off the back of a defeat to world number 247 Elmer Moller, his fifth loss in a row.

That’s one of the reasons why I’m also keen on JUNCHENG SHANG in this half of the draw.

At a time of the year where physical and mental fatigue can be an issue, the host nation’s star should be fully motivated.

He also brings good hardcourt form to the table – he made the semis in Atlanta, another tournament which is hot and fast, and then reached the third round of the US Open where he only lost in five sets to top-10 star Casper Ruud.

If he can come through a tricky opener against Kei Nishikori, Shang can go deep.

My pick in the top half, where top seed Lorenzo Musetti resides, is LORENZO SONEGO.

The sixth seed won on the ATP Tour only last month, triumphing in Winston-Salem just before the US Open.

That run arguably damaged his chances in New York, although losing to the seeded Tommy Paul there in four sets was no disgrace.

With the heat, these are likely to be tough conditions but I remember Sonego winning in similar temperatures in Antalya back in 2019 when he dealt with everything fine.

While that was on grass, it also showed how a lot of his best results come in quicker conditions – Sonego has also won indoors in Metz and been a finalist at Eastbourne – so I think he can go well here at 16/1.

Hangzhou Open

• Hangzhou, China (outdoor hard)

Hangzhou is a new stop on the ATP Tour – it’s essentially replacing Zhuhai.

Around 200km from Shanghai, it sits virtually at sea level and they will play on GreenSet courts – expect this to be slower than Chengdu.

Notably, the venue did stage the Asian Games tennis event last year and that could hold ZHIZHEN ZHANG in good stead.

He won gold, losing only one set across his five matches and that was via a tie-break.

The Chinese star clearly has that motivation factor in his favour this week, playing in front of a home crowd, and this looks a chance to make his first ATP final.

Admittedly, he was last seen limping out of the US Open with a knee injury but that was more than three weeks ago now and he will have been doing everything to be fit for this run of events in Asia.

A small bet at 14/1 looks worth a go.

I’ll also take the 40/1 on offer about MIKHAIL KUKUSHKIN to small stakes.

The bottom quarter – if not the whole half – looks pretty weak and so a player who made the semi-finals on the Challenger Tour in Guangzhou last week looks worth a poke.

The experienced Kazakh faces clay specialist Luciano Darderi first and would then meet either Alexander Shevchenko or a qualifier, with the latter arguably more likely given the former has won just one of his last eight matches and hasn’t won back-to-back contests since February.

Second seed Karen Khachanov is also here but he’s won only three of his last 11, while even his potential first opponent, Hugo Gaston, hasn’t won a set in three matches since returning to the hardcourts.

There’s another factor which could work in Kukushkin’s favour too.

A lot of rain is forecast in Hangzhou this week and if it’s as bad as the forecast suggests, matches could easily end up being played indoors.

That would certainly be welcomed by Kukushkin, who has enjoyed some of his best results in such conditions.

However, for all the talk of possible value in the bottom half, my main selection comes in the top section in the shape of BRANDON NAKASHIMA.

The American has played some good tennis in recent times, beating two seeds – Holger Rune and Lorenzo Musetti – en route to the last 16 of the US Open.

He’s already backed up that run, too, going 3-0 in Davis Cup indoors in Zhuhai last week as he helped the USA reached the last eight.

With travel not an issue, Nakashima only needs to transition to outdoor hardcourts but those are his natural domain so it shouldn’t be a problem.

As his name suggests, Naksahima has family roots in Asia – Japan and Vietnam – so these few weeks on the tour will mean more to him than many others and I’d expect him to be busting a gut.

I certainly prefer him to top seed Holger Rune, who Nakashima crushed at the US Open for the loss of just seven games. The pair could meet in the semis this week.

Rune said after that defeat that he had “played extremely bad tennis” and, in a message to fans, vowed: “I will not let you down any more”.

That is easier said than done though and he looks an opposable 7/2 favourite.

Posted at 1315 BST on 17/09/24

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